UNDER SECRETARY FORE DECRIES LAW AND ORDER VACUUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000530 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER MARR UN NP SUBJECT: UNDER SECRETARY FORE DECRIES LAW AND ORDER VACUUM REF: KATHMANDU 509 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On March 10, Under Secretary of State Fore voiced her concern about the poor law and order situation in Nepal to Prime Minister Koirala. The Prime Minister acknowledged the problem. He told the Under Secretary and the Ambassador that one reason was the failure by the Maoists to meet their peace commitments on arms management. The Maoists had not registered 2,000 weapons with the UN. The PM said the Government would soon issue a ten-day deadline after which it would begin arresting anyone, Maoist or otherwise, who had an illegal weapon. Koirala also described his plan to replace Home Minister Sitaula once he had a political deal with the Madhesis. The Ambassador hammered home the need for law and order in a March 9 meeting with the Home Minister. The Ambassador stressed that the situation had deteriorated to the point where he would soon have to publicly oppose the admission of the Maoists into an interim government. The current government, he said, had abdicated its responsibility to its people. With the first phase of UN arms monitoring completed, it was time, the Ambassador emphasized, for the Nepali police to enforce the law. If the governing parties did not act, they would face the risk of a Maoist takeover. Prime Minister Admits Problem, Plans Action -------------- ¶2. (C) In a March 10 meeting with Prime Minister G.P. Koirala, Under Secretary of State for Management Fore raised her concern about the deterioration in the law and order situation in the country. Koirala admitted that the situation was serious. He conceded as well that the Ambassador had spoken to him on this theme many times. He expressed his sincere appreciation for the Ambassador's strong criticism of continuing Maoist abuses. As the PM and his Foreign Policy Advisor Dr. Suresh Chalise noted, those remarks had strengthened the GON's hand in peace negotiations with the Maoists. One of the principal reasons for the problem, according to the Prime Minister, was the Maoists' failure to meet their commitments under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Arms Monitoring Agreement. Koirala said he thought the Maoists had not registered some 2,000 weapons with the UN. He admitted he probably would have done the same thing if he had been them, but he was still pressing them to turn in at least half. In addition, the Government, the PM said, would soon issue a ten-day deadline after which it would arrest anyone, Maoist or otherwise, found with an unregistered weapon. New Home Minister Likely -------------- ¶3. (C) Koirala reiterated his position that it had been necessary during the peace talks to avoid taking any step which would cause the Maoists to abandon the process. With the Maoists expected to join an interim government soon, assuming they carried through on their commitments to return seized property and allow displaced people to return to their homes, a crackdown was possible. It was possible as well to put an end to the double hatting of the Home Minister as the Government's chief peace negotiator -- a practice, Koirala stated, which the Ambassador had early on pointed out would lead to serious trouble in either the peace negotiations or law enforcement. No minister was indispensable. The Prime Minister indicated that what he needed before replacing Sitaula was a promise from Madhesi leaders that once they got this concession they would not ask for more, including the Prime Minister's resignation. Koirala said the cabinet shuffle could happen very quickly. Law and Order Absent -------------- ¶4. (C) During his March 9 meeting with Home Minister Krishna Sitaula to discuss the Maoist allegation that royalists were KATHMANDU 00000530 002 OF 003 plotting to kill U.S. officials (reftel),the Ambassador decried the law and order vacuum in Nepal. The Maoists were continuing to act like terrorists and to violate their commitments with impunity. He cited the example of the parallel customs system the Maoists were running at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan International Airport. According to a freight forwarder, the Maoist trade union was pocketing Nepali Rupees 2 per kilo on top of the Government's regular charges on air cargo. The Ambassador also noted the case of the Canadian call center operator in the capital who, a few weeks previously, had publicly resisted Maoist demands for "donations" to support a mass rally. The BBC had heralded his bravery. The Ambassador reported that several days earlier the Maoists had broken his guard's arm, stolen his car and threatened his life. The Canadian had now gone into hiding. The Home Minister and the Home Secretary, who had joined Sitaula for the meeting, were grim-faced at the news. Need For Action -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador warned that he would have to speak out even more and call openly for the Maoists to be denied a place in an interim government if the situation continued to deteriorate. He said the current Seven-Party Alliance Government had abdicated its responsibility. The Maoists were making the Government look foolish. Meanwhile, the people of Nepal lived in a state of fear. Nepalis did not bother reporting Maoist abuses to the authorities because they did not trust the police to respond. The Ambassador urged the Home Minister to begin arresting any person found carrying a weapon outside the UN-monitored cantonments now that the first phase of arms management was complete. First Phase of UN Arms and Combatant Registration Complete? -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) On March 9, the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) issued a press statement regarding the completion March 7 of the first phase of registration of Maoist arms and combatants. UNMIN military advisor and chairman of the Joint Monitoring Coordinating Committee (JMCC) Gen. Jan Erik Wilhemsen signed the final report for the UN on March 8. JMCC vice chairmen Brig. Gen. Pradhan and Deputy Commander Nand Kishor Pun (aka Pasang) signed for the Nepal Army and the People's Liberation Army. According to the press statement, The report was forwarded to the Government of Nepal (GON) and the Maoists. In the report, Ian Martin, Special Representative of the Secretary General and head of UNMIN, urged the two sides to reach a final arrangement on security for Maoist leaders immediately. The report indicated that the second phase of UN arms monitoring, which required verifying registered Maoist combatants, was expected to begin in two weeks. In an attachment, Pasang claimed the Maoists had met their peace commitments, registered all of the weapons in their inventory and acknowledged that any additional Maoist weapons found would be illegal. In his attached statement, Gen. Pradhan noted the Maoists had not turned in 781 weapons, including automatic machine guns, the Nepal Army had listed as seized. He also highlighted -- with concern -- the large discrepancy between the total number of Maoist weapons (3,475) and combatants (31,152) registered. Government Itself At Risk -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador made the point to Minister Sitaula that the GON's failure to address Maoist abuses put the Government itself at risk. He said that he suspected the Maoists were trying to up the pressure. The same day that Maoist Supremo Prachanda had accused the royalists of plotting to kill U.S. officials and planning a bombing campaign in the capital the Maoists had tabled a resolution in the Interim Parliament calling for the immediate abolition of the monarchy and declaration of a republic. The Ambassador said he was worried that the Maoists were increasingly disenchanted with their prospects for gaining power through a Constituent Assembly election. Rather, they perhaps intended to use widespread anti-King sentiment to spark another popular uprising in the streets, and gain power that way. They would KATHMANDU 00000530 003 OF 003 not hesitate, the Ambassador warned, to go after the Prime Minister's and the Home Minister's Nepali Congress Party if it stood in the way. Home Minister Responds -------------- ¶8. (C) Minister Sitaula said little in response to the Ambassador's charges. Sitaula pointed out that the Nepali police planned to hire an additional 10,000 officers which he expected would make a difference. He noted as well that the royalists posed a security threat. Home Secretary Mainali reported that, according to the preliminary police investigation, a small royalist group, Nepal Janatantrik Party (NJP),which had engaged in several previous bombings, was believed to be behind two bombs the police had found March 7 and 8 in Kathmandu and defused. The targets had been the homes of two outspoken advocates for a republic from Nepali civil society. (The Nepali press reported March 10 that the NJP had accepted responsibility.) The Ambassador admitted that royalists were capable of doing something stupid. He acknowledged that the Home Minister faced huge security challenges: that was natural for a country in transition after a decade of insurgency. The Ambassador added that the U.S., along with the British, Indian and UN Missions, would continue discussing with the Home Ministry ways the Nepal Police could become more effective. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) U.S. concern about the poor security situation in Nepal and the Maoists' failure to meet their peace commitments are clear to everyone. Under Secretary Fore's widely reported press conference on March 10 saw to that. This time Prime Minister Koirala may be serious about taking action. With the Maoist piece of the peace process approaching its logical conclusion -- namely entry into an interim government -- Sitaula's utility as a Maoist-friendly interlocutor may be coming to an end. Even if he takes charge as minister of an upgraded Peace Secretariat (as post has heard he may from some key contacts),his removal from the Home Ministry would leave a spot that Koirala could fill with someone prepared to take a new, hard line. Post will raise the reported completion of the first phase of the UN arms management process with the UN directly, but we are pleased the Prime Minister is not willing to settle for what the Maoists have turned in thus far. The sooner the GON starts the clock running on the promised ten-day deadline for arresting anyone with illegal weapons the better. ¶10. (U) Under Secretary Fore did not have an opportunity to clear this message. MORIARTY