FOREIGN MINISTER WORRIES BUT HOME MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000445 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PTER NP SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER WORRIES BUT HOME MINISTER SANGUINE ABOUT MAOIST INTENTIONS Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings with the Ambassador on February 26, Foreign Minister K.P. Oli worried that the Maoists intended to make a grab for power while Home Minister Sitaula hoped that Maoists would enter the political mainstream and renounce violence. Oli believed the Prime Minister would stand strong on preventing Maoist entry into an interim government until arms management and cantonment of combatants were complete, suggesting that an interim government might be delayed another 60 - 70 days. With continued unrest in the Terai and arms management nearly complete, the Ambassador stressed the need to re-impose law and order. Sitaula, however, appeared unsure how to address these issues. Foreign Minister Worries About Maoists ... -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting on February 26, Foreign Minister Oli worried that the Maoists intended to have the interim parliament declare a republic and, once the Nepal Army's weapons were locked up, make a grab for power. He also agreed with the Ambassador that the Maoists might be interested in postponing Constituent Assembly elections beyond June because of their unpopularity with the Madhesi population in the Terai. (Note: Maoist militia and Madhesi rights groups have clashed for the past month and notably in recent days in the Nepal-India border region, resulting in injuries, destroyed property, and, on February 27, the Maoist killing of a Madhesi teenager. End Note.) Oli feared that the Maoists had retained significant numbers of arms and explosives and intended to use them. "The Maoists have not given up their policy or their instruments, of violence," he added. In his view, the Maoists had not "given up the revolution." The Ambassador concurred but suggested that the Maoists had been shaken by the realization of their unpopularity in the Terai. Oli believed the Prime Minister would stand strong on preventing Maoist entry into an interim government until UN-monitored arms management and cantonment of combatants were complete, suggesting that an interim government might be delayed another 60 - 70 days. ... While Home Minister Appears Sanguine -------------- ¶3. (C) In contrast to Oli's concerns, in a separate meeting February 26, Home Minister Sitaula was optimistic that Maoists would enter the political mainstream and renounce violence in a "step-by-step" process. The Ambassador stressed the importance of re-imposing law and order in the country, praising the Nepal Army's recent seizure of three weapons held by Maoists attempting to enter the Bardiya National Park. Now that the Maoist arms were supposed to be locked up in containers, the Ambassador encouraged Sitaula to empower the civil and armed police forces to seize and arrest anyone caught with illegal arms. Home Minister Unprepared to Act Decisively -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador suggested that Sitaula needed to immediately deal with two issues: first, the demands of Madhesi and other ethnic groups and, secondly, continued Maoist violence in violation of their public commitments. If these two issues were not resolved soon, the Ambassador said, elections might have to be postponed. While Sitaula appeared to welcome the advice, he said little in reply and did not detail any plans to address these issues other than commenting that informal discussions between the government and the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) were taking place in an effort to resolve the Terai problem. Home Secretary Mainali, who also participated in the meeting, SIPDIS claimed that the security forces had to be cautious in dealing with demonstrators in the Terai because of human rights organizations' constant criticism that the government was unduly harsh. The Ambassador countered that the UN KATHMANDU 00000445 002 OF 002 Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) under Lena Sundh recognized the difficulties the government faced in dealing with the Terai unrest; Sundh had suggested that the police needed to act to defuse tensions before demonstrations got out of hand. Sitaula noted that a revised Police Act was in its final stages and that he had initiated a recruitment drive for 10,000 new civil and armed police officers. He added that he was trying to ensure that the new recruits reflected Nepal's ethnic diversity. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The divergent opinions expressed by Foreign Minister Oli and Home Minister Sitaula regarding Maoist intentions are not surprising. Within his own party, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML),FM Oli is known for his toughness on the Maoists. Sitaula (Nepali Congress),on the other hand, is considered by many as an earnest, but naive interlocutor who is in the Maoists' pocket. Unfortunately, Sitaula might very well keep a Cabinet seat in an interim government while Oli will most likely be ousted. While expressing optimism, Sitaula appeared weighed down by the two major issues facing the government: the demands of Madhesi and ethnic groups and continued Maoist violations of the peace agreement. We will continue to press the government to empower the security forces and strengthen law and order now that Maoist arms are supposed to be off the streets. MORIARTY