NEPAL: GOVERNMENT FIDDLES WHILE TERAI BURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000304

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: GOVERNMENT FIDDLES WHILE TERAI BURNS

KATHMANDU 00000304 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) On February 4, Dr. Suresh Chalise, the Prime
Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor, requested suggestions from
Post on a solution to the unrest in the Terai. Chalise
stressed in a meeting with the DCM on February 5 that the
government was worried about the growing unrest but had a
plan to solve it. In the same breath, Chalise claimed that
the Government of Nepal (GON) did not know what the Madhesi
protestors wanted or how to proceed. The same day, Dr.
Shekhar Koirala, the Prime Minister's nephew and close
advisor, did not disagree when Emboff suggested that the Home
Minister's resignation would be a step forward in resolving
the problem. Dr. Koirala also said that the Prime Minister
felt that if he gave another speech on the Terai problem and
the other political parties did not support him, he might
have no choice but to resign. In a subsequent meeting on
February 6, Chalise told the DCM that the Prime Minister
would address the nation soon. Chalise asked again for more
information on how the PM could frame the speech successfully
and what Post saw as the defining features of a "new Nepal."

Chalise--Request For Input On The Terai
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2. (C) Dr. Suresh Chalise, Foreign Policy Advisor to Prime
Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, asked the DCM on February 4
for suggestions on how to solve the current unrest in the
Terai. In a conversation the next day, Chalise stressed that
the GON was greatly concerned about the growing unrest in the
Terai but had a plan for how to solve it. However, in the
same breath, Chalise made it clear that the GON did not
understand what the Madhesi rights activists wanted, and what
the government could do to fulfill their demands. He also
claimed that the GON did not know with whom to engage among
the Madhesi leaders. The DCM stated that direct engagement
was important (with a broad cross-section of the leaders of
the Madhesi movement),and that this was an opportunity for
the GON to show it was serious about creating a democracy in
Nepal in which all Nepalis had a stake.

Home Minister Should Resign--And Might
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3. (C) In a separate discussion on February 5, Dr. Shekhar
Koirala, Central Committee Member of the Nepali Congress and
a close advisor -- and nephew -- of the Prime Minister,
agreed with Emboff that the resignation of Home Minister
Krishna Prasad Sitaula could be a good first step toward a
solution to the problems facing the Terai. Chalise had
earlier told the DCM as well that he understood that the Home
Minister's resignation would significantly ease tensions,
since that was one of the main demands of the Madhesi
protestors. On February 6, Chalise implied that the Prime
Minister might announce the resignation of the Home Minister
soon, perhaps even as early as that evening. (Sitaula, in an
interview with a local television station that day, stated
that he would not be resigning.)

Chalise--Request for Input On A "New Nepal"
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4. (C) In response to Chalise's request for suggestions, Post
provided initial suggestions for solutions to the unrest in
the Terai, including specific references to Madhesis killed
and Government compensation for their families as well as
Prime Minister-led round tables in regional capitals and
Kathmandu with a cross-section of society. Chalise again
approached the DCM a second time February 6 for more input on
the defining features of a "new Nepal." Chalise told the DCM
that the PM was planning to give a speech either later on
that evening or the morning of February 7 and wanted
additional suggestions. The DCM shared some thoughts on
inclusive democracy and dialogue with all disadvantaged
groups, not just with the Madhesis, as an opportunity for the
GON to broaden the debate and move toward a more inclusive
process in the run-up to the Constituent Assembly elections.

KATHMANDU 00000304 002 OF 002


Although at the beginning of the meeting Chalise made it
clear that the PM planned to give a similar speech to last
week's failed attempt to solve the problem, by the end of the
meeting, the DCM appeared to have convinced the PM's advisor
that it would take something more inclusive and specific to
ease the tensions in the Terai. According to Dr. Koirala in
a separate conversation, if the other political parties had
the same negative reaction to the PM's speech that they had
to his last one, the PM might have no choice but to resign.

Comment
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5. (C) Prime Minister Koirala seems either unaware of the
gravity of the situation in the Terai or somehow unwilling to
overcome the usual Nepali pattern of partial solutions
announced with little consultation. While some of his
advisors are doing whatever they can to convince him to do
the right thing, others including the Maoists and groups with
vested interest in the status quo, are no doubt pulling him
in different directions. The PM still has a chance to defuse
the tensions in the Terai and avoid the possibility of a
divided nation. Furthermore, if he broadens the debate to
include the demands of all disadvantaged groups, he could lay
the groundwork for an inclusive multi-party democracy that
would truly represent a new Nepal.
MORIARTY