NEPAL: POLITICAL AGREEMENT REACHED BUT OBSTACLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002118 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: POLITICAL AGREEMENT REACHED BUT OBSTACLES TO ELECTION REMAIN Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On December 23, after a nearly three-month stalemate, the Six-Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists signed a twenty-three-point agreement, which addressed two major Maoist concerns: declaration of the republic and the electoral system. They agreed to revise the Interim Constitution to declare Nepal a federal republic with implementation to take place at the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly. The SPA and the Maoists further agreed to maintain 240 first-past-the-post seats but expand the number of proportional seats from 240 to 335. They committed to hold the election by mid-April, but did not set the date. In addition, the Maoists promised to rejoin the Interim Government, but have yet to do so. The Twenty-Three-Point Agreement also contains a number of promises by the SPA and the Maoists to implement various prior peace agreement commitments. Madhesi groups claimed the agreement ignored the issues of the Terai. Political Stalemate Ends -------------- ¶2. (C) After seemingly unending rounds of talks that began in early October when the governing Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists agreed to cancel the planned November 22 Constituent Assembly (CA) election, senior leaders reached a twenty-three point agreement December 23 which broke Nepal's political deadlock. The Agreement addressed the two principal demands which the Maoists had first voiced in August and then cited when withdrawing their ministers from the Interim Cabinet in mid-September. These were the insistence on the immediate declaration of Nepal as a federal republic and the adoption of a fully proportional election system. The approval in early November by the Interim Parliament's special session of non-binding resolutions to that effect by Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and Maoist Members of Parliament (MPs) over the opposition of the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress (NC) had complicated the prospect of a deal, according to Embassy contacts in the NC and the UML. The initial reaction by commentators to the Agreement was that both the NC and the Maoists had shown flexibility in the end. Nepal to Become Republic Now, But Implementation Delayed -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The Twenty-Three-Point Agreement provides that the Interim Constitution will be revised to make Nepal a democratic, republican, federal state. The decision is to be "implemented" by the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly. The Agreement appears to reiterate an existing constitutional provision to the effect that implementation can occur sooner if the King creates any obstruction against the CA polls. The Agreement also reiterates that the King is to have no say in state affairs, and all powers of the Head of State are to be vested in the Prime Minister until a republic is implemented. The Agreement is silent about the powers or nature of the new Head of State. The NC had insisted that the Interim Parliament lacked the authority to make Nepal a republic, and its position prevailed. King Gyanendra does not have to pack his bags yet. Election To Be More Proportional -------------- ¶4. (C) The Agreement provides further that no change will be made in the number of first-past-the-post seats. It remains 240, as currently mandated in the Interim Constitution and the electoral law. The change is in the number of proportional and appointed seats. The SPA and the Maoists agreed to boost the proportional seats from 240 to 335. They also decided to increase the number of appointed seats from 17 to 26, the latter specifically to allow the Cabinet to appoint MPs after the election from minority groups which KATHMANDU 00002118 002 OF 002 would not otherwise be represented in the CA. The Assembly will go from 497 to 601 members. The NC had fiercely defended the 240 first-past-the-the-post seats in the face of demands for a fully proportional system (leaving aside the appointed seats). It had cited the need for voters to be able to elect their own local representatives; the proportional candidates are to be elected with the country treated as a single constituency. A minor SPA party, the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, issued a note of dissent on this issue. It argued that Nepal should adopt a mixed member proportional system in place of the parallel first-past-the-post and proportional systems in the current electoral law. But Obstacles Remain -------------- ¶5. (C) Now the Interim Parliament must approve the corresponding changes in the Interim Constitution and other laws. The SPA and the Maoists resolved in the Agreement to hold the election by the close of the current Nepali year (April 12),but did not set the date. As the Chief Election Commissioner has made clear, time is short. In addition, the Maoists committed to rejoin the Interim Government. According to press reports, Krishna Mahara, who was the former Information and Communication Minister and was the senior Maoist in the Government, is expected to be reappointed but no final decision had been made as of December 26. The Agreement also established, at Maoist insistence, a new coordinating committee which is to improve the functioning of the Cabinet, but how this new committee will work in practice is not yet clear. The Agreement also devotes considerable space to reaffirmations, this time on expedited schedules, in some cases within a month, of prior peace process commitments by the SPA and the Maoists. These include promises by the Maoists to return seized land and end abuses, by the Government of Nepal to release funds to Maoist combatants and to discuss integration of combatants into the Nepalese Army, and other obligations to establish key commissions, including a Peace and Reconstruction Commission and a Commission on the Disappeared. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Like other members of the international community here, we welcome the December 23 Agreement. Unfortunately, we have seen many similar agreements before, most of which were routinely disregarded. We will have to be convinced that this time the Six-Party Alliance and the Maoists, especially, mean business. One of the biggest challenges that both sides will face in getting to a Constituent Assembly election was left unresolved: namely the problem of the Terai. Prominent Madhesi leaders have already publicly proclaimed that the Agreement ignores their concerns. While the Government of Nepal has a special security task force in place in the Terai now and it appears to be making some headway against the rampant lawlessness in that populous border region, much more must be done for an election to be held there. POWELL