SOME PROGRESS BUT DEAL FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002085

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PINR NP
SUBJECT: SOME PROGRESS BUT DEAL FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY
ELECTION IN NEPAL STILL ELUSIVE


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Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) On Saturday December 15 the Six-Party Alliance
registered a constitutional amendment with the Interim
Parliament to eliminate the requirement to hold the
Constituent Assembly (CA) election by the end of the Nepali
month of Mangsir (which ended December 15),but it would keep
the requirement to hold the election this Nepali year (which
ends April 12, 2008). Tentative agreements on a new election
date and revisions to the electoral system have been
announced, but were not included in the amendment. Working
groups meeting to address a number of other sensitive issues
have not been able to break the deadlock, and until a package
deal is reached the amendment will not be passed.

Third Constitutional Amendment Introduced
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2. (U) After many rounds of negotiations, on Saturday
December 15 leaders of the Six-Party Alliance, Maoists, and
the cabinet endorsed the introduction of an amendment to
Article 33 (1) of the Interim Constitution. Currently the
article states that 'all efforts should be made to hold the
Constituent Assembly election by the end of Mangsir, 2064'.
(Note: The Nepali month of Mangsir runs from mid-November to
mid-December. The Nepali year 2064 runs through April 12,
2008.) The amendment would eliminate the word 'Mangsir' so
that elections would still need to be held by the end of the
Nepali year. Although the amendment is on the agenda when
Parliament resumes Wednesday, discussions are unlikely to
proceed far without resolution of a broader package of
outstanding issues.

Numerous Issues Still Unresolved
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3. (SBU) In its current form the proposed amendment does not
address dissatisfaction with the electoral system or specify
a new election date. A tentative deal has been announced by
the government which would keep a mixed electoral system, but
increase the percentage of proportional seats from 50 to 58
and raise the number of appointed seats from 17 to 26.
Retaining 240 first-past-the-post seats, this would lead to
335 proportional seats and 26 nominated seats for a total
assembly size of 601. (Note: Making these changes would also
require amending Article 63 (3) of the Interim Constitution.
End note.) The Maoist leadership has publicly stated that
they have not signed off on these revisions, but that may be
a negotiating tactic to keep pressure on the government,
particularly Nepali Congress, to concede to other Maoist
demands. Task forces formed by the Six-Party Alliance and
Maoists to address the more contentious issues of integration
of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) with the Nepalese Army
(NA) and a cabinet reshuffle have been meeting but unable to
break the impasse.

Party Leaders Skeptical About Quick Resolution of Impasse
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4. (SBU) Jhala Nath Khanal, Standing Committee Member and
Chief of the International Department of the Communist Party
of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML) told Emboff that
the decision to hold the CA within this Nepali year is an
expression of commitment from the SPA that the CA election
will be held. He expected the CPN-UML proposed date of March
18, 2008 would be agreed to by the other parties. He
believed that the process of integrating the PLA and NA
needed to start prior to the CA election in order to make it
clear to all that the Maoists are a civilian political force.



5. (SBU) Chakra Praasad Bastola and Dr. Minendra Rizal,
Central Working Committee Members of the Nepali Congress
(NC),confirmed that NC was willing to accept March 18 and

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the increase in proportional seats, but until consensus is
reached on other issues, the package deal would not move
forward. NC would prefer that integration between the PLA
and NA involve only a minority of combatants being given the
opportunity to join the NA while others would be offered
alternate jobs, but difficulties in the Peace and Home
Ministries, both controlled by NC, have prevented this.
After Bastola's recent visit to the PLA cantonment in Chitwan
with the United Nations monitoring team, he thought that many
combatants would accept foreign employment, or participation
in other job schemes, and are not necessarily looking to join
the NA. However, until progress is made on alternative
employment options Maoist leadership will keep pressing for
full integration.


6. (SBU) Bastola and Rizal viewed a cabinet reshuffle as more
problematic than integration. They report Prime Minister
Koirala is not prepared to give the Maoists a Senior Deputy
Prime Minister position or to reallocate portfolios so that
the Maoists control the Defense, Finance, or Home Ministries.
Bastola stated that the CPN-UML is pushing the
reshuffle/reallocation at least as hard as the Maoists, and
had proposed if reallocation does not take place that a
parliamentary committee supervise the work of these NC
ministers. They report Koirala rejected that suggestion.

Comment
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7. (C) While party leaders have been downplaying any
constitutional crisis due to their failure to hold the CA
election within the month of Mangsir, they are trying to
respond to public demands to hold the CA election. The
stalemate which has occurred since the October 5 announcement
of the postponement of the November 22 election is showing
signs of loosening, at least as far as some progress on
electoral date and rules. While in principle most political
parties have also agreed to having the Interim Parliament
pass a declaration in support of a republic, to be endorsed
and implemented at the first sitting of the CA, specific
wording remains an issue. Resolution of a cabinet reshuffle
and integration of the army would leave Madhesi issues
unaddressed. Political will by party leaders appears to
still be lacking, even as many senior political leaders admit
that if they are unable to hold the CA election by mid-April
the government, and leaders of all parties in the Six-Party
Alliance, will have lost their legitimacy.
POWELL