NEPAL'S SOUTHEAST SHOWING IMPROVED SECURITY FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002005 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM KSEC NP SUBJECT: NEPAL'S SOUTHEAST SHOWING IMPROVED SECURITY FOR NOW Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Government, police, and party officials in Jhapa (on November 14) and Ilam (on November 15) reported to Emboff that the security situation in their district was manageable. However, all the officials agreed that if the politicians in Kathmandu cannot resolve their current impasse and set a new Constituent Assembly election date soon, the security situation is likely to deteriorate sharply. The District Election Office staff is inexperienced, but eager to get back to work. Security Improved, Maoists and Limbuwan Still Problems -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) While leaders in two southeastern districts saw the security situation as manageable, in a meeting on November 15 with Emboff the Chief District Officer (CDO) of Ilam was more willing to concede actual and latent problems than government officials in Jhapa were on November 14. (Note: Jhapa, the southeasternmost district of Nepal, has traditionally been a relatively calm area while Ilam, the district just north of Jhapa, has faced more Maoist and ethnic unrest. End Note.) They indicated Maoist and Limbuwan (an indigenous ethnic group in southeastern Nepal which comprises approximately two per cent of Nepal's population) groups have been active in both districts, but with greater numbers and effect in Ilam. Extortion by Maoists still takes place, although reportedly at lower levels than previously. While both police and government officials admitted bandhs (traffic blockades) were generally successful, they thought the population obeyed out of fear, not support. Officials reported that since the postponement of the election The Limbuwan had organized fewer disruptive activities, although they were uncertain as to why. Police in both districts reported that all police posts destroyed or closed during the insurgency had been reestablished. All the officials agreed that if the politicians in Kathmandu cannot resolve their current impasse and set a new Constituent Assembly election date soon, the security situation is likely to deteriorate sharply. Leaders Want Elections Held Soon -------------- ¶3. (C) Staff at both District Election Offices (DEO) claimed to be ready to resume activities and conduct the election as soon as the Election Commission gives the word. The staff admitted that some voter education activities conducted before the postponement had faced political disruptions and the education effort in Ilam appeared to have taken on a more partisan tone than in Jhapa. Police and government officials in Ilam reported that only a few of the applicants for the temporary election security positions had any military or law enforcement background thus they were skeptical that the training time would have been sufficient. Political party leaders and government officials unanimously supported making an extra effort to keep the Maoists a part of the electoral process - both to prevent the Maoists from causing security problems and to make the elections more meaningful. Party leaders expressed broad support for conducting the election under a purely proportional electoral system. None of the staff in either DEO had ever conducted an election previously, but they were eager to complete the task. If the new election date is after mid-April and thus requires updating the voter registration lists, the staff estimated that process would take four to six months. Conducting a new census would obviously take longer, but party leaders in Jhapa thought it would be possible to conduct a census peacefully if the Six-Party Alliance and Maoists were unified. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) The government officials, police, and party leaders in KATHMANDU 00002005 002 OF 002 Jhapa and Ilam all saw the political problems in Kathmandu as far more serious than any political issues they were facing in their district. Agreement on an election date soon was viewed as providing the opportunity to maintain improved security and conduct a successful Constituent Assembly election. The Assembly could then provide a forum where all groups could address their political demands. In neither district have the Limbuwan, the Maoists, and Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN),formed an alliance even though they all are demanding the adoption of a purely proportional electoral system and federalism. Party leaders reported conducting some party activity outside the district headquarters, but not much, even though all admit the security situation is adequate to conduct such activities. Local leaders stated that land reform and other outstanding peace process issues should be dealt with only after election issues are resolved, but if no election date is announced soon the Limbuwan, Maoists, and NEFIN are likely to step up their agitation. Although Jhapa is a Terai district, Madhesi groups are not a strong force there. POWELL