NEPAL: UN CONCERNED ABOUT DETERIORATING SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000199

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: UN CONCERNED ABOUT DETERIORATING SITUATION
IN TERAI


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) John Norris, Political Advisor to the Secretary
General's Personal Representative Ian Martin, told the DCM on
January 25 that the UN was concerned that the deteriorating
security situation in the Terai could have an adverse effect
on UN arms monitoring operations. Norris said that the
Government of Nepal (GON) had not yet decided specifics about
"protective details" for Maoist VIPs, and worried that this
could cause more flare-ups like the recent one in Lahan.
Norris stressed that the current unrest in the Terai was a
crucial test for the GON. Norris informed the DCM that
registration and separation from the weapons of Maoist
combatants was going well.

UN Concerned About Unrest in Terai
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2. (C) On January 25, John Norris, Political Advisor to the
Secretary General's Personal Representative Ian Martin, told

SIPDIS
the DCM he was concerned that the worsening security
situation in the Terai could have an adverse effect on UN
operations. Norris said that the recent unrest in the Terai
had begun when the Maoist protective detail of some Maoist
political and military leaders opened fire on Madhesi
protestors in Lahan (eastern Nepal). He worried that the
November 28 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) had only
vaguely addressed the issue of protective details. The CPA
called for security arrangements for Maoist leaders to be
decided through government consensus. Norris suggested that
recent events in the Terai gave credence to the argument that
the Maoists needed protection. He said that the GON needed
to provide security to the Maoist leaders soon, so the UN
could register the protective details and separate them from
their weapons, before another explosive situation occurred.

Terai a Crucial Test for GON
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3. (C) Norris stated that the current unrest in the Terai was
a crucial test for the GON. Norris said it was clear that
"rogue elements" were taking advantage of the situation for
their own purposes: the Maoists, the Maoist splinter
Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (Terai People's Liberation
Front),Hindu fundamentalists, and Royalists. He said,
however, that the main Madhesi issue of proportional
representation in voting constituencies was legitimate and an
issue that the GON needed to address soon. Norris said that
some constituencies in the hill districts only had 7,000
inhabitants, while some in the Terai had 700,000. Norris had
heard rumors that the Prime Minister would address the nation
on January 29, and hoped that the PM would offer to the
Madhesis something on constituencies to help defuse the
problem. Norris stressed that the role of the international
community, specifically the U.S., India, and the UN, was
critical to a positive outcome in the Terai. He said that
the international community had to be ready to support a
solution, should the GON come up with one.

Registration Going Well
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4. (C) Norris said that the reason registration of Maoist
combatants in Chitwan had come to a halt on January 25 was
because the Maoist commanders had been confused about whether
combatants would be registered as individuals or as units.
Once the confusion was over, registration started again with
no problems. Norris stated that registration was expected to
be finished in Chitwan and Nawalparasi by January 27, and
then the UN planned to begin registration the following week
in the fifth, sixth, and seventh divisions simultaneously.
Once these divisions were complete, the UN would begin with
the divisions in the east (first and second); Norris
acknowledged, however, that these latter divisions would

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likely be more difficult, given the recent events in the
Terai and the remote locations of some of the cantonments.

Comment
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5. (C) The continuing violence in the Terai has the potential
to seriously damage the peace process in Nepal, unless the
government takes serious action to solve it quickly. Norris
is right that the U.S. needs to be ready to support the GON,
which must come up with a palatable solution to Madhesi
demands. That said, Norris's tendency to place the
responsibility for most of the problems on the GON appears
unfair. The Maoists spent much of their decade-long
insurgency claiming to push for autonomy for Nepal's ethnic
regions, but now have turned their backs on these issues as
the prospect of power in Kathmandu nears. The precipitating
factor of the latest round of unrest in the Terai was armed
Maoists shooting a Madhesi protestor in Lahan, a serious
breach of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. With a
Constituent Assembly looming, other disadvantaged groups with
long-held grievances may take to the streets as well. At the
end of the day, if Nepal's peace process and democratic
transition are to succeed, it will not be enough for the
democratic parties to come to an acceptable accommodation
with the Maoists and for the Maoists to renounce violence.
The parties and the Maoists will also have to chart a course
that gives a measure of hope to all Nepalis regardless of
caste, ethnicity, and gender.
MORIARTY