NEPAL: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION POSTPONED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001847

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV EAID KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION POSTPONED

REF: A. KATHMANDU 1826


B. KATHMANDU 1817

C. KATHMANDU 1811

Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) Nepal's Election Commission announced the morning of
October 5 that it was suspending the Constituent Assembly
election scheduled for November 22. The Commission postponed
the polls at the request of the Interim Government. All of
the governing parties apparently agreed to the Maoist demand
for a suspension, except for the major, center-left Communist
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist and two small
leftist parties. According to the Speaker's Office, the
Interim Parliament will begin its special session on October

11. The Interim Constitution will have to be amended to
remove the reference to an election by December. No new date
has been agreed upon. The special session is expected to
also consider a resolution committing the parties to vote for
a republic at the CA's first meeting, and may see a
no-confidence challenge to Prime Minister Koirala. Post is
currently evaluating various scenarios and how to reprogram
USG election-related funds appropriately going forward.

Election Postponed
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2. (U) The morning of October 5, the Election Commission
issued a public announcement that it was suspending all of
its programs for the November 22 Constituent Assembly
election. The suspension came in response to a written
request by Prime Minister Koirala to the Commission to
postpone the polls, which the cabinet had approved.
According to Embassy sources, an early morning meeting of the
governing Six-Party Alliance with the Maoists reached
agreement to suspend the election after Maoist chief Pushpa
Dahal (aka Prachanda) insisted that if the election were not
postponed immediately, the Maoists would resume nationwide
protests. That meeting followed days of negotiations -
ultimately fruitless -- between the Six-Party Alliance -- in
particular the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress -- and the
Maoists over an acceptable compromise under which the Maoists
would participate in the polls. October 5 was the
rescheduled date for filing of candidate lists for the
proportional seats in the CA election. Chief Election
Commissioner Pokharel was on record that any further
postponements in the filing dates would require the election
to be put off.

Major Center-Left Party Dissatisfied
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3. (C) According to press reports, three parties in the
governing coalition objected to the suspension: the major,
center-left Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist (UML) and two minor leftist parties -- People's
Front Nepal and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party. This was
reportedly in the form of notes of dissent to the morning
agreement. UML, unlike all the other parties, was generally
regarded as well-prepared to contest the elections. Local
media also reported that the Election Commissioners had
resigned over the postponement, but when the Chief Election
Commissioner called the Ambassador October 5, he spoke only
of the "ethical dilemma" the Commission had faced. He did
not mention resignation. IFES Country Representative Peter
Erben told Mission staff October 5 that the Commissioners had
been greatly concerned about the risk to life and limb of
electoral staff if the election were to take place in the
face of Maoist opposition.

Special Session of Parliament on October 11
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4. (C) An assistant to Speaker of the Interim Parliament
Subash Nemwang informed Emboff October 5 that the special

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session of the Parliament which Maoist MPs had
constitutionally invoked would begin on October 11. Speaker
Nemwang, who will depart Kathmandu October 6 to attend the UN
General Assembly in New York, plans to return on the 11th.
Amending Article 33 of the Interim Constitution to remove the
reference to an election by the Nepali month of Mansir (by
December 15) will have to be one of the Parliament's first
orders of business. (Note: The second amendment to the
Interim Constitution in June had changed the date from June
to Mansir. End Note.) The parties and the Maoists have not
yet agreed upon a new date, but participants in the
negotiations on October 4 stated to post that April 8 was
under consideration. The special session is expected to
consider a resolution committing the parties to vote for a
republic at the CA's first meeting. Prime Minister Koirala
and the Six-Party Alliance had already promised to take this
lesser step in reaction to the Maoist demand for the
immediate declaration of a republic. Koirala may also face a
no-confidence

Evaluating Scenarios and U.S. Programs
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5. (C) Post is deploying the press guidance on the
postponement of the CA election which we sent to the
Department September 28 (Ref C). (Note: We have emailed the
final version to SCA/PPD and the Nepal desk.) We are also
evaluating various possible political scenarios in the wake
of the postponement. Our previously scheduled exercise with
S/CRS on October 10 will be useful in that regard. The
Mission team has already begun evaluating its pre-election
and election programming. Our initial assessment is that the
loss of investment will be relatively minimal and that
reprogramming of most the funds should prove possible. We
are already considering where that reprogramming should be
targeted.

Comment
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6. (C) It is too early to judge the outcome of the Government
of Nepal (GON)'s decision to put off the November 22
Constituent Assembly election. We strongly suspect, however,
that it will only further increase public cynicism about the
political parties as well as prompt an up-tick in tensions,
particularly in the Terai, where the GON has yet to fulfill
its previous commitments. With the major Nepali holidays of
Dasain and Tihar around the corner, our best guess is that
there will be no major public protest -- at least not in
Kathmandu. While the Maoists must bear the lion's share of
the blame for the postponement, it is also apparent that the
Nepali Congress, which as of October 4 had yet to establish
election cells in many of Nepal's 75 districts, was at best
ambivalent about holding the election in November. The
Election Commission and, perhaps, the UML, may be the only
major players to come out with their reputations intact.
POWELL