CA ELECTIONS - TO BE OR NOT TO BE: 51 DAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001817 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID KDEM NP SUBJECT: CA ELECTIONS - TO BE OR NOT TO BE: 51 DAYS REF: A. KATHMANDU 1755 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1792 ¶C. KATHMANDU 1744 Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The week of September 24-30 ended with an 11th hour announcement from the Election Commission (EC) that the deadline for candidate nominations for the Constituent Assembly (CA) election would be delayed by five days at the request of all seven major parties. The new deadline for submission of the closed list of candidates for the proportional representation system is October 5 and October 8 for candidate nominations for the first-past-the-post system. On September 25th the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D) announced the parties' long awaited merger (ref B) turning the eight-party alliance into a seven party alliance. The announcement was followed by the party's two-day "Mahasamiti" meeting which resulted in a manifesto calling for a federal republican state and an end to the monarchy. However, this was not enough to pacify the Maoists who continue to threaten to derail the election unless their 22 point demands are met. The EC is moving forward with election preparations and voter education programs continue throughout the country, but according to press reports, the Maoists have prevented a number of programs from being held. Field reports indicate that Nepalis remain fearful in the countryside and few truly believe an election will be held in November. Nomination Deadline Extended -------------- ¶2. (C) On Sunday, September 30, after receiving a written request from the top seven political parties and the Interim Cabinet, the Election Commission (EC) agreed to postpone the dates for the submission of the closed list of candidates for the proportional representation system from September 30 to October 5. The EC also postponed the filing of candidate nominations for the first-past-the-post system from October 5 to October 8. Maoist chairman Pushpa Dahal "Prachanda" proposed the postponement and the other leaders agreed in order to buy time. The Maoist leadership continues to demand that the November 22 polls be held on the basis of full proportional representation and the country be declared a republic by the interim parliament. To date Prime Minister Koirala has rejected the demand, although the PM has agreed that the Interim Parliament will commit to a republic. With the announcement of the postponement the Maoists called off the planned September 30 protest in front of the Election Commission and converted the program into a mass meeting in central Kathmandu. Talks between the political parties are expected to continue as they attempt to defuse the prevailing political deadlock resulting from the Maoists threat to thwart the Constituent Assembly elections if their demands are not met. (Note: On September 18, the Maoists quit the government and announced a nationwide strike threatening to foil the CA election if the coalition partners did not agree on the Maoists 22-point pre-requisites to ensure meaningful polls. (Ref A) End Note.) Nepali Congress Holds Mahasamiti Meeting -------------- ¶3. (C) On September 25 the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D) announced their long-awaited merger turning the eight-party alliance into a seven-party alliance (Ref B). The announcement was followed by the united party's two-day policy or general committee "Mahasamiti" meeting. On September 26, the NC approved a manifesto for the CA election supporting a federal republican state, and multi-party democratic system of government. The manifesto makes significant policy departures in areas such as state structure, inner party democracy and security policy and calls for end to the monarchy. KATHMANDU 00001817 002 OF 003 Maoists Hindering Poll Preparations -------------- ¶4. (C) The Maoist position remains that the CA election will be a farce if a republic is not declared in advance and the Maoists have vowed to launch protest to disrupt the election if their demands are not met. During the week of September 24-30 there were a number of reports of disruptions that indicate the Maoists should be taken at their word. In Salyan district in the mid-west Maoists have forced the closure of voter education programs in several villages. In Baitadi district in the far west Maoists are warning locals against participating in the CA election and have beaten and threatened a number of officials. And in Kavre district in central Nepal, only a short distance from Kathmandu, the Young Communist League (YCL) is reportedly disrupting Constituent Assembly poll awareness programs. There are no reports of police intervention, rather the absence of any police presence is noticeable. The Elections Must Go On -------------- ¶5. (C) While the Maoists stage protest and the political parties negotiate, election preparations continue. On September 26 the EC approved the opening of offices for the Returning Officers in all 240 constituencies (Ref C). The EC has now established an in-house ballot team and has engaged two ballot experts, one for ballot design and one for ballot production. USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives began its trainings for media monitors and technical staff on September 24 and voter education and training for election observers are in full force. However, given the growing possibility of a postponement, future expenditures are being staggered or delayed where possible. IFES has indicated that a 5-day delay will not effect the on-time printing of ballots, but there is a limit to the delays that the election time-line can absorb. Planning for Election Security -------------- ¶6. (C) The EC has put a security plan in place, but there is widespread concern that the Maoists may attempt to corral polling stations and EC offices throughout the country. The Armed Police are continuing deployment and the Nepal Police have circulated a recruiting flyer calling for additional temporary security forces. The police report that the response to their recruitment efforts has been disappointing and some believe that the Maoists are obstructing the process. Temporary officers are scheduled to report for training on October 25. Factions Fight for Nepal Sadbhavana Party Title -------------- -- ¶7. (C) On September 28, the Election Commission ended the debate between the bickering factions of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandadevi) (NSP-A). The EC decided to recognize the faction led by Anandadevi Singh as the legitimate NSP-A party. The EC offered the dissident faction lead by Minister for Industry, Commerce and Supplies Rajendra Mahato the opportunity to register as a separate party on September 29. Mahato responded by announcing a countrywide demonstration in front of the EC's offices. On September 29, as many as 35 members of the disgruntled faction, including Mahato, were detained after burning a copy of the EC's decision in front of the EC office in Kathmandu. Mahato has submitted his resignation to the Prime Minister and it was accepted. Views from the Field -------------- ¶8. (C) Reports from Mission staff in the field indicate that many people are still unaware of the upcoming CA election or perceive it to be a general election. Voter education efforts are making some progress but there is low understanding of the special purpose of a constituent assembly election. In Rupandehi and Palpa in the west, reports indicate that campaigning has not begun and most KATHMANDU 00001817 003 OF 003 people do not believe there will be a meaningful election. Many fear that an election will bring threats and physical violence and almost all agree that corrupt practices will be employed. Reports from Banke, a district in the western Terai region, indicate that voter education efforts are under way and that people are enthusiastic about the elections. However, many of the people do not believe an election will actually take place. NGO partners report that security forces have returned and the Maoists are less visible, but a persistent fear of physical force, abductions and blockades remains. Reports from Jhapa in the eastern Terai also indicate a general skepticism about the election and continuing security concerns. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The Elections Commissions 11th hour postponement on September 30 of the first of the deadlines for filing of candidate lists prevented an immediate showdown between the Maoists and the parties. Yet, the list still must be submitted and absent an agreement between the Maoists and the parties, the threat to obstruct the November election remains. The political parties solution may be to prolong negotiations until it becomes too late to move forward with the November polls. This will leave the EC in the unenviable position of calling a postponement - once again. If the CA election is significantly postponed the legitimacy of both the EC and the Interim Parliament will be jeopardized. Moreover, the reaction in the Terai could be explosive and could test the ability of the already dysfunctional Interim Government and demoralized police force to maintain control. POWELL