NEPAL: MAOIST MINISTERS RESIGN FROM INTERIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001750 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM KSEC NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST MINISTERS RESIGN FROM INTERIM GOVERNMENT REF: KATHMANDU 1648 Classified By: Ambassador Nancy J. Powell. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Citing the Interim Government's failure to operate as agreed, the four remaining Maoist ministers submitted their resignation to Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala the afternoon of September 18. The Maoists had been threatening to resign on the 18th if their 22 demands, including the immediate declaration of a republic by the Interim Parliament and the adoption of a purely proportional system for the Constituent Assembly election, were not fulfilled. The resignations followed several days of talks between the Maoists and Seven-Party Alliance leaders that culminated in negotiations between the Maoist chief Pushpa Dahal ("Prachanda") and PM (and Nepali Congress President) Koirala, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist General Secretary M.K. Nepal and Nepali Congress - Democratic SIPDIS President Sher Bahadur Deuba. According to Embassy sources, the Prime Minister has not yet accepted the resignations and talks are likely to continue. Politicians are concerned, however, that the situation could deteriorate and the Maoists would also withdraw from the Interim Parliament and boycott the election and the peace process. The mass Maoist rally in central Kathmandu going on now is being watched closely for an indication of what will happen next. Maoist Ministers Tender Resignation -------------- ¶2. (C) The four remaining Maoist ministers in Nepal's eight-party Interim Government submitted a collective letter of resignation to Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala on the afternoon of September 19 according to Embassy sources. The four ministers are: Minister of Information and Communication (and cabinet spokesman) Krishna Bahadur Mahara; Minister of Local Development Dev Gurung; Minister of Physical Planning and Works Hisila Yami (who is the wife of senior Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai); and Minister of Women, Children and Social Welfare Khadga Bahadur Biswokarma. The fifth Maoist minister in the 23-member cabinet, Minister for Forest and Soil Conservation Matrika Yadav, had already submitted his resignation on August 2. PM Koirala had accepted it August 10 (reftel). Like Yadav, Mahara, Gurung, Yami and Biswokarma cited the failure of the Nepali Government to work according to the spirit of the November 2006 comprehensive peace accord. Instead it was working in a "feudalistic and status quo manner." Maoists Carry Through on Threat -------------- ¶3. (C) The Maoist leadership had been threatening publicly for more than a week that the Maoists would leave the Government on September 18 if their 22 demands were not met. These demands included, most notably, an insistence that the Interim Parliament declare Nepal a republic as well as that the election system for the Constituent Assembly election be changed from a mixed system of first-past-the-post and proportional seats to a purely proportional system. The Maoist threat had led to a series of negotiations over the preceding days between the Maoists and their Seven-Party Alliance coalition partners. These talks culminated in so-called "four-party" talks the morning of September 18 at the Prime Minister's residence in Baluwatar which included Maoist chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal ("Prachanda"),Prime Minister (and Nepali Congress President) Koirala, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) General Secretary M.K. Nepal and Nepali Congress - Democratic President Sher Bahadur Deuba. According to Embassy sources, the Prime Minister had proposed that the eight parties make a public commitment to a republic in advance of the election, to be followed by an official act on the first day the Constituent Assembly convenes. M.K. Nepal had told the Ambassador KATHMANDU 00001750 002 OF 002 September 17 that the parties might make this commitment on September 18. According to press reports, Nepal suggested September 18 that the Interim Parliament could pass a resolution affirming that commitment, but the Maoists still chose to walk out of the talks. Resignations Not Yet Accepted; Talks To Continue -------------- --- ¶4. (C) According to Embassy contacts in the Nepali Congress, the CPN-UML, and the Nepali Congress - Democratic, Seven-Party Alliance leaders are discussing whether the Prime Minister should accept the resignations. They have all indicated to post that talks are likely to continue in the coming days with the Maoists in an effort to persuade them not to leave the Government. (Note: Under the Interim Constitution, the Prime Minister is not required to accept the resignation. End note.) Peace process observer Padma Ratna Tuladhar told Emboff the afternoon of September 18 that the Maoists had not yet indicated that they would leave the Interim Parliament or boycott the election. He expressed concern, however, that the security situation would deteriorate and that the entire peace process would be undermined. Seven-Party Alliance leaders have voiced similar concerns. Mass Maoist Rally Closely Watched -------------- ¶5. (C) The Maoists had previously organized a mass rally in central Kathmandu's Kula Manch ("Open Theater") starting at 2 p.m. (local time) September 18 to launch a protest program -- or, alternatively, Dahal had publicly proclaimed -- an election program -- depending on the outcome of the talks. According to police reports, as of 3 p.m., based on Nepal police reports, approximately 25,000 Maoists had gathered at Kula Manch. Dahal, who is suffering from arthritis, did not address the gathering, but his deputy Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, is. Embassy contacts expressed anxiety that the program could turn violent and were watching the news closely. Nepal Radio reports that Bhattarai told the crowd, "The third people's movement has started from today. The time for negotiations at the Prime Minister's house and at Singha Durbar (note: The seat of the government and the Parliament) is over. Now we will start talking from the streets." Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The upshot of the September 18 collective resignation of the four Maoist ministers in Nepal's interim government is not yet clear. It is certainly possible that the resignation is a pressure tactic by the Maoists to boost their leverage in obtaining ironclad guarantees of a significantly stronger outcome from the upcoming Constituent Assembly election than they are currently likely to obtain through the polls. According to a leading civil society figure, Nabindra Raj Joshi, who is head of the Ganesh Man Singh Academy, the Maoists were initially demanding 83 seats in the 497-member CA. Now they are prepared to accept 40. We suspect that the Maoist demand for a purely proportional system may be an election ploy to recoup the Maoists' poor standing with ethnic minorities and indigenous groups. The Maoists may also have assessed, logically, that they can run a stronger campaign as an opposition party, outside the government. What we all hope this does not mean is that the Maoists now intend to boycott the election and, perhaps, the peace process as a whole. Only the next few days will answer these crucial questions. Post will continue to monitor closely and report developments. POWELL