UPDATE ON ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001691

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN NEPAL

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires, a.i., Randy Berry; Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) At the inaugural meeting of Post's Democracy Working
Group August 31 representatives from NDI and IFES presented
sobering assessments of the status of preparations for the
Constituent Assembly (CA) election on November 22. Behind
the scenes discussions to ensure that leaders of the
Eight-Party Alliance will stand uncontested in the
"first-past-the-post" races have reportedly expanded to
include all the current members of the Interim Parliament.
Few political parties have started to campaign; Nepali
Congress and Nepali Congress-Democratic are hampered by their
inability to complete unification, while the Young Communist
League has shown it will not allow other parties' campaign
activities to go unchallenged by disrupting an event by the
Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist).
Logistics, election law gaps, press coverage and the extent
of women's representation all remain troubling issues. In
addition, the large budget shortfall for election expenses
remains unaddressed, calling the Government of Nepal's
commitment to the election into question.

Avoiding Competition?
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2. (C) On August 31, the Ambassador chaired the inaugural
meeting of Post's Interagency Democracy Working Group.
Presentations from NDI and IFES on general election matters,
and INL on election security, led to wide-ranging discussion
on the challenges to be dealt with in the 82 days until the
election. A proposal among leaders of the Eight-Party
Alliance (EPA) that the top ten leaders from each party of
the EPA run without opposition from other parties in the EPA
has reportedly been expanded to include all incumbent Members
of the Interim Parliament (MPs). Even though some incumbent
MPs are expected to run for reelection, if the parties could
actually reach such an agreement it would effectively limit
competition for first-past-the-post seats in districts with
incumbent MPs from the EPA. However, new political parties
and other parties outside the EPA would not be bound by any
such agreement and could spoil the plan, particularly in the
Terai.

Campaigning Off to a Slow and Rocky Start
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3. (C) None of the parties has begun effective nationwide
campaigns. Both the Nepali Congress (NC) and Nepali
Congress-Democratic (NC-D) are aware that they are poorly
positioned to campaign prior to their unification. However,
Prime Minister Koirala's (NC) apparent inflexibility in
helping the NC-D save face in a final deal, and efforts to
ensure a top position for his daughter, continue to delay
unification, and thus Congress' ability to agree on a
platform or to select candidates. The Maoist party approach
to campaigning appears so far to be one of disruption rather
than persuasion. Disruption of a Communist Party of Nepal
(United Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML) campaign event on August
30 in the western Nepal district of Kalikot by its Young
Communist League (YCL) surrogates received widespread local
press coverage and does not appear to be a one-off incident.
Maoists activity in some districts has presented the illusion
of a campaign, but they are still promoting demands rather
than standard campaign activity. Many of the newly
registered political parties appear to have few supporters
and poor organization.

Four Concerns
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4. (C) Logistics, election law gaps, media coverage, and the
extent of women's representation all remain troubling issues.
The Election Commission (EC) has come to recognize that it
has lost a significant amount of logistical knowledge and

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support as a result of the agreement to keep the Nepal Army
in the barracks and not have it play a role in the election.
The EC is also faced with imperfect election laws and will
have to fill the existing gaps through regulations, although
this is technically illegal and could result in court
challenges. Reports that freedom of the press has been
restricted, especially in the Terai, continue to reach NDI
and IFES. While some women are under the impression that
women would comprise 50%, or at least 33%, of the Constituent
Assembly, analysts report that even if the quota rules were
followed exactly women would likely comprise only 22% of the
new assembly. (Note: The quota of 50% women applies to the
proportional representation candidate lists and selected
members. Including first-past-the-post, seats, 33% of all
candidates must be women, but there is no provision ensuring
that women will win any first-past-the-post, seats. End
Note.) While that would still be a significant improvement
in women's representation, the discrepancy could lead to
disenchantment if expectations are not corrected prior to the
election.

The Budget Gap
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5. (C) A sizable gap in the election budget is now apparent.
The GON's estimated election budget stands at USD 40 million.
Donors have pledged USD 17 million and the GON promised the
remaining USD 23 million, but to date the GON's contribution
has not materialized. With no new donor contributions in
sight, the Peace Trust Fund empty, and no clear source from
within the government, the GON's funding plan remains a
mystery.

Comment
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6. (C) Although the Election Commission has accomplished much
to date, it is clear that it still faces many challenges and
outstanding issues. Political parties are having a hard time
accepting the risks that go along with competing in
democratic politics and in fulfilling their role of interest
aggregation and informing voters. Given the popular
dissatisfaction with the governing parties and Interim
Parliament, and the possibility of widespread anti-incumbent
voting, it is far from clear that any non-competition
agreement within the EPA would guarantee the return of most
incumbents. While recent agreements between the government
and indigenous leaders (NEFIN) and with the Madhesi People's
Rights Forum have been viewed as providing a positive and
calming influence on the Terai, both agreements still face
challenges as they have not yet been implemented by the
government or accepted by all members. With the GON once
again facing dissatisfaction with long lines at the gas
stations in the Kathmandu valley and pressure from India to
pay outstanding oil bills, there is speculation that the GON
may face a choice between subsidizing fuel and fully funding
an election ) and may be leaning towards the former.
BERRY