NEPAL: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER MAY BE A MAOIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER MAY BE A MAOIST


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) Hannes Siebert, a USAID-contracted peace facilitator,
informed the Ambassador January 19 that the Maoists had
expected to obtain the Speakership of the Interim Parliament
and had been surprised when the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA)
agreed to give them the Deputy Prime Ministership instead.
The Maoists had taken advantage, he said, of internal
division within the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist. This created the real risk, Siebert and the
Ambassador agreed, that there could be a Maoist Prime
Minister -- if precautions were not taken. Sierbert
indicated that the SPA and the Maoists had still not agreed
on the nature of local government. This would be decided by
the new Interim Government.

Maoists Expected to Obtain Speakership
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2. (C) On January 19, USAID-contracted peace facilitator
Hannes Siebert told the Ambassador that the Maoists had
expected as late as the morning of January 15, the day the
Interim Parliament was stood up, that senior Maoist Dev
Gurung, who was one of their 73 Maoist MP-nominees, would
become the Speaker of the Interim Parliament. According to
Siebert, they were surprised to end up later in the week with
an agreement from the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) to give the
Maoists the Deputy Prime Ministership instead. The Communist
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) had been
reluctant to give up the powerful Speaker position which the
CPN-UML's Subash Nemwang had held in the prior House of
Representatives. Meanwhile, the CPN-UML had been unable to
agree internally on who from the party would serve as Deputy
Prime Minister in the Interim Government. The Ambassador
concurred that Foreign Minister K.P. Oli (CPN-UML),who was
one of two Deputy Prime Ministers in the current government,
was vulnerable. He had many critics inside his party,
including CPN-UML General Secretary M.K. Nepal.

But Who Succeeds Koirala?
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3. (C) The Ambassador expressed concern that a decision to
make a Maoist Deputy Prim Minister raised the risk that that
there could be a Maoist Prime Minister. Everyone knew Prime
Minister G.P. Koirala was not well, and the Interim
Constitution provided in Article 38 (10) that, in the event
the PM died, the Deputy PM would succeed him. Siebert agreed
that this was a serious problem, but from his talks with SPA
leaders, they did not appear to be sufficiently focussed on
the problem. The Deputy Chief of Mission noted that the PM's
nephew Dr. Shehkar Koirala had told him two days before that
someone from the Nepali Congress or the Nepali Congress -
Democratic would succeed Koirala. Shehkar Koirala, however,
had failed to explain how that would happen. The Ambassador
noted the importance of the SPA selecting at least one other
Deputy Prime Minister from their midst who could take over
the top job if something happened to the PM.

No Decision Yet on Local Government
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4. (C) In response to a question from the Ambassador, Siebert
replied that the Government of Nepal and the Maoists had not
yet decided how to structure local government. This issue
would be decided by the Interim Government. Siebert
indicated, however, that the relevant ministries as well as
the parties were engaged in discussions on what local
government should look like. Local peace councils were also
under discussion -- with the Maoists still hesitating. The
Ambassador pointed out that the current absence of local
government was in the Maoists' interest, because it allowed
them to continue their domination of the countryside. Local
peace councils could play a useful role, but not if they
became a substitute for functioning local government.

Comment

KATHMANDU 00000160 002 OF 002


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5. (C) Although the Maoists appear to believe they have the
agreement of the Seven-Party Alliance to make a Maoist Deputy
Prime Minister, we sense a ground swell within the SPA to
interpose one of their own as the senior Deputy Prime
Minister against making a Maoist PM Koirala's heir apparent.
Another option would be to amend the Interim Constitution to
make it easier to replace the PM. As currently drafted,
death or resignation of the incumbent are practically the
only ways a PM can be removed. This is far from ideal given
PM Koirala's poor health. The absence of agreement on how to
handle local government is another lacuna in the peace
agreements to date. Getting local government in place will
have to be a priority for the Government of Nepal (current or
Interim) if the Constituent Assembly elections are to take
place in June as currently scheduled.
MORIARTY