NEPAL: ARMY CHIEF RULES OUT COUP

S E C R E T KATHMANDU 001307 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV MARR NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: ARMY CHIEF RULES OUT COUP Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) No Coup: Country Before King -------------- ¶1. (S) On July 2, during the Ambassador's farewell call on Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Rookmangud Katawal, the COAS revealed that he had had three visitors from King Gyanendra in recent days who had urged him to "move" to "save the country." He told the Ambassador that he had rejected the request, saying that anyone foolish enough to commit a coup would have to make sure Nepal had plenty of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) on hand. (Comment: In earlier conversations, Katawal acknowledged that a military coup would lead inevitably to massive demonstrations that would make it impossible to bring in necessary imports from India.) The Ambassador said he recognized that the COAS supported a constitutional monarchy, but he emphasized that only the people could decide the monarchy's fate, not the Nepal Army. He added that it looked more and more likely that the Constitutional Assembly would abolish the monarchy completely. Katawal did not disagree. Army Chief Also Declines Invite to King's Birthday -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Katawal said he had declined the invitation from the Queen to attend the King's 60th birthday celebration on July 6 at the Narayanhity Palace. Although he conceded that he had been associated from childhood with the Palace (Note: Katawal, in effect, was raised by the royal family. End note.),his first duty was to his position as Chief of Army Staff. The Ambassador welcomed the decision and noted he, too, had declined the invitation. Katawal stated that his wife would likely attend. (Note: The Foreign Ministry has suggested to the members of the diplomatic corps that they not attend. End note.) Comment -------------- ¶3. (S) A leading English-language news weekly, "Newsfront," had a cover story on coup talk on July 2. Post certainly does not ascribe to the frequent scenario in the popular press that hordes of Hindu fundamentalists, intent on restoring the King, are going to make an appearance. We think Katawal has no intention of saving the current King and leading a repeat of February 1, 2005. (He told the Defense Attache recently that he would have resigned had he been COAS when Gyanendra decided to seize power.) Prime Minister Koirala, like the Chief of Army Staff, would presumably prefer to see a ceremonial monarchy retained. That said, when he made comments to members of the press on June 17 suggesting Gyanendra's grandson Hridayendra could take the throne, the public outcry was so vehement that he denied ever making them. What does merit watching are the Maoists and the security situation generally. We do not expect a coup and have strongly emphasized to the Nepal Army that the country's democratic process should be allowed to run its course. Nevertheless, Katawal stressed to the Ambassador July 2 that he has told the mainstream political parties bluntly not to turn over power to the Maoists or gut the army. If the Maoists attempt to seize power illegally, or if the security situation deteriorates to the point of chaos, the Army Chief might decide to intervene. MORIARTY