NEPAL: SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT HOPEFUL POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001091 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREF NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT HOPEFUL POLITICAL IMPASSE WILL END SOON REF: KATHMANDU 1077 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Speaker of the Interim Parliament Subash Nemwang told visiting Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Barry Lowenkron and Ambassador Moriarty May 31 that the governing Eight-Party Alliance had reached an informal understanding on a new date for a Constituent Assembly election. The Speaker indicated that he was optimistic that a political solution would be found shortly to the ongoing obstruction of the Parliament. He mentioned that the Constituent Assembly Court Bill and, most importantly, the Constituent Assembly Member Bill needed to be passed. Nemwang agreed with the Ambassador that Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal opposed re-opening the decisions of the Electoral Constituency Delineation Commission but thought an acceptable compromise could be found to meet Madhesi concerns. Nemwang shared Assistant Secretary Lowenkron's and the Ambassador's dissatisfaction with Maoist activities. He thought, however, that if the seven parties were unified, the Maoists would not be able to prevent announcement of a new election date. The Speaker also spelled out his views on the leadership gap at the National Human Rights Commission, the situation in the Terai, and the nationwide strike called for June 1 by Nepal's umbrella organization for indigenous nationalities. Informal Understanding On Election Date -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting May 31 with visiting Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Barry Lowenkron and Ambassador Moriarty, Speaker of the Interim Parliament Subash Nemwang cited the Interim Constitution, the Interim Parliament and the Interim Government as significant achievements over the past year. One of the principal challenges had been to get the Maoists into the political process. The most important remaining challenge was the Constituent Assembly election. The parties had initially agreed on a June date, but that had proven impossible. The Speaker explained that the governing eight parties had reached an informal understanding to hold the election in November (as suggested by the Election Commission),but as yet there was no formal agreement. He was hopeful, however that the parties, which were scheduled to meet later the same day, would fix a date soon. (Note: The parties announced later the same day an agreement to hold the election no later than December 15. End note.) Hope That Parliament Could Resume Meeting -------------- ¶3. (C) The Speaker admitted that Maoist, Madhesi, (and more recently) RPP (Rastriya Prajatantrik Party or National Democratic Party) Members of Parliament had been "obstructing the House." (Note: The Interim Parliament has not been able to hold general sessions for a month and a half. End note.) Nemwang said that he had spoken with party leaders as well as MPs and a deal was in sight. What was needed now was a political agreement, and he was hopeful it would be forthcoming. Moving Forward With Electoral Laws -------------- ¶4. (C) Nemwang opined that, if the Parliament were meeting, it would be easy to make progress on the outstanding electoral laws. He identified two: the Constituent Assembly (CA) Court Bill and the CA Member Bill. With respect to the Court Bill, he said, there was only one outstanding issue. The Maoists wanted persons who were not sitting members of the judiciary appointed to the special electoral court. The parties refused: they wanted sitting judges only. The Speaker stated that he thought the Maoist objection could be overcome because they had now joined the Interim Government KATHMANDU 00001091 002 OF 004 and had gained a say over the Judicial Council. Nemwang described the CA Member Bill as the most important pending legislation. It spelled out the election process itself, as well as the means for including disadvantaged groups. He said that the eight parties were near agreement on the second bill's provisions. The Election Commission had recommended that, once the Parliament adopted the two bills, the election date could be announced. Madhesi Demand That Constituency Boundaries Be Redrawn -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked the Speaker whether Madhesi concerns were the main obstacle to a political agreement on the various issues. Nemwang responded that one of the original reasons why Madhesi MPs had been obstructing Parliament had been to press for the formation of a judicial commission to probe the incidents that had occurred in the Terai in the initial months of 2007. The Cabinet had granted that demand. Now the Madhesis were pushing for a total redrawing of the Electoral Constituency Delineation Commission (ECDC) boundaries. The Ambassador noted that the Speaker's party chief, Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, was angry about this (reftel). Nemwang said he had heard the same message. The UML General Secretary had argued that it was wrong for the Madhesi MPs to insist on a new Commission report when the Government of Nepal had formed the Commission to please the Madhesi MPs. It was better in that case for the GON to adopt a purely proportional electoral system. The Ambassador reported that he had been in Biratnagar (Morang District) in eastern Terai when the ECDC had announced its decision. At least in Morang, Madhesis from across the parties had been outraged, complaining that the Commission had drawn the constituency boundaries to discriminate against them. Boundary Compromise Possible -------------- ¶6. (C) Nemwang voiced the opinion that there might be a little room for compromise on the issue of ECDC boundaries. For a review of the delineation, the Interim Constitution would have to be amended, but it could be done. The trick would be to follow an approach M.K. Nepal had suggested. The GON could review part of the Commission's boundary decisions, but it would be impossible to reopen all of them. Moreover, before the process started, it would be necessary also to identify which constituencies were being reviewed and why. There could be "no blank check." The Speaker noted that the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (the leading Madhesi group) had started calling for a purely proportional system for the CA election. Previously, only the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities, a grouping of janjatis (ethnic Tibeto-Burmans),had been raising this issue. Maoists Another Big Obstacle -------------- ¶7. (C) The Speaker concurred with the Ambassador that the Maoist insistence on the declaration of a republic prior to the CA election was another major obstacle to the announcement of a new election date. The Maoists had openly agreed in January that the question of the monarchy would be decided at the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly. Now they claimed no election would be possible as long as the monarchy existed. The Maoists were citing the failure to hold the CA election in June as the pretext, the Speaker said, for the change in their position. Assistant Secretary Lowenkron expressed concern that the Maoists had one leg in the political process and one leg outside. From his travels worldwide, he had seen, as in the case of Hamas, that you could not sustain a democracy where one party retained the right to intimidate with impunity. In light of the Maoist Young Communist League, and the Maoist decision to keep many of the members of its People's Liberation Army (PLA) outside the UN-monitored camps, what did Nemwang consider to be their true intentions?, Lowenkron asked. KATHMANDU 00001091 003 OF 004 Speaker Sees Maoist Glass Half Full -------------- ¶8. (C) The Speaker acknowledged that Maoist tactics and maneuvers raised serious questions about Maoist intentions. Yet he affirmed that he was hopeful the Maoists were making progress. "Before they were resorting to arms to solve any problem, now they obstruct the Parliament - without arms." Nemwang said he had argued to the Maoist Chief Whip, Dinanath Sharma, that it was not wise for the Maoists to obstruct the Parliament for so long. A functioning Parliament provided the Maoists a forum to expound their views. The Maoists had recently decided, the Speaker added, to end their parliamentary protest, possibly the result of the GON's recent decision to give PLA "combatants" in the cantonments 3,000 Nepali Rupees each per month. Instead, he said, the Maoists planned to take their struggle for a republic to the streets. Some Nepalis were wondering if the Maoists were serious about holding a CA election. Need To Fill the National Human Rights Commission -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) The Assistant Secretary queried the Speaker about what was being done to appoint the members of the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) (which has had no commissioners for nearly a year),calling the NHRC a critical component in Nepal's democratic transition. Nemwang answered that the GON had nominated three commissioners, including a chief, but that the Interim Constitution had charged the task of appointing NHRC commissioners to the Constitutional Council. Prime Minister Koirala was the chairman of the Council and he had to take the initiative of naming Ministers to serve on the Council. The Speaker, who is also a member of the Council, said he had raised the issue recently with the PM. NEFIN Bandh on June 1 -------------- ¶10. (C) Nemwang stated that the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN),Nepal's umbrella organization for indigenous nationalities (janjati),had indeed called a transportation and business strike or bandh for June 1. The Maoists were not involved in NEFIN, but the Maoists had declared that they would support the NEFIN bandh. This was the Maoist approach -- to come forward when something was happening. The Speaker said NEFIN would retain the leadership of the strike. Security Situation Poor -------------- ¶11. (C) The Speaker agreed with the Ambassador that the country's security situation was poor. He focused especially on the "plains" (the Terai). Extremist groups had proliferated, some of uncertain origin or with criminal connections. Several groups were extremely violent, particularly in the Terai. Nemwang acknowledged that the GON did not look very serious about maintaining law and order and did not seem to be present in the countryside. One reason was the presence of the Maoists in the Nepali Government. Maoist sister organizations, such as the Young Communist League (YCL),were involved in offenses. YCL abuses had everyone in Nepal talking. The Election Commission, meanwhile, was emphasizing that a Constituent Assembly election could not be held if the security situation did not improve. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) In his May 31 meeting with Assistant Secretary Lowenkron and the Ambassador, Speaker of the Parliament Nemwang was optimistic that the a political solution could be found soon to the impasse on rescheduling Nepal's Constituent Assemly election. As it turned out, later the same day, the Seven-Party Alliance and the Maoists reached an 11-point agreement on several outstanding issues, including holding the CA election, most likely in November. One of the KATHMANDU 00001091 004 OF 004 negotiators told Emboff May 31 that the deal included agreement that the Interim Parliament would resume meeting and that certain electoral constituency boundaries would be reviewed and possibly redrawn. According to Nepali Congress - Democratic MP Minendra Rijal, several parties added written objections but they still signed. He added that the Interim Parliament had already resumed operation. The end to the impasse looks to be good news for the peace process and Nepalis. ¶13. Assistant Secretary Lowenkron has cleared this cable. MORIARTY