ROYAL CONFIDANT SAYS PROGRESS ON "DEMOCRATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001078

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NP
SUBJECT: ROYAL CONFIDANT SAYS PROGRESS ON "DEMOCRATIC
FRONT;" KING MUST ABDICATE


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) Royal confidant Prabhakar Rana told the Ambassador
May 30 that he and others were working to build a democratic
front that would unite the main political parties in support
of the Prime Minister. The front would then pressure the
Maoists to uphold peace agreement commitments. Rana reported
that former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa was
encouraging King Gyanendra to refrain from speaking publicly
and to abdicate if he wanted to preserve the monarchy. Rana
was encouraged that the Indians would begin to take a tougher
line with the parties to push the peace process forward. The
Ambassador and Rana agreed that the enforcement of law and
order may be impossible under Home Minister Sitaula.
(Comment: Whether the leaders of the parties will overcome
their mutual suspicions to unite in opposition to the Maoist
threat remains to be seen. End Comment)

Toward a Democratic Front
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2. (C) Royal confidant Prabhakar Rana reported to the
Ambassador May 30 that there was continued positive movement
toward creating a "democratic front" among the Prime Minister
and main parties to pressure the Maoists to uphold their
peace process commitments. Rana said that former Prime
Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa had spoken with the PM regarding
such a movement and had had some initial meetings with the
Communist Party - United Marxist Leninist (CP-UML),which
Rana felt should not be ruled out of a democratic coalition.
Rana told the Ambassador that the PM recognized he faced
increasing dissent within his own party and might be open to
additional assistance in moving forward the peace process.
Rana said senior Nepali Congress leaders felt the PM listened
only to his family and the Home Minister in decision-making,
and student party leaders were also raising concerns. While
the seven parties recognized the necessity of working under
the PM as long as his health remained alright, they were
looking at ways to encourage the PM to take a stronger stand
against the Maoists.

Pressuring the King Toward Abdication
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3. (C) Rana reported that former Prime Minister Surya
Bahadur Thapa had a long meeting with King Gyanendra in which
he relayed three pieces of advice. First, the King should
refrain from making public statements that could lead to
public outcry and put the Prime Minister in a difficult
position. If he were to speak publicly, Thapa said,
Gyanendra should clear draft speeches beforehand with the
Prime Minister. Second, the King should separate his
personal and political life; avoid political discussions with
associates who were "useless people" and only interested in
creating trouble. Third, Thapa emphasized to the King that
he held the responsibility of preserving the monarchy. If he
was to save the institution, his only choice, and duty, was
to abdicate. Rana said the King recognized the tenuousness
of his position, even if he did not verbalize it, and was
beginning to come to terms with some of his prior mistakes.

India Will Flex Some Muscle
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4. (C) Rana reported that, following discussions with
Indian Ambassador Mukherjee, he was encouraged that the
Indians would be tougher on the parties to move the peace
process forward. Rana stressed the importance of a unified
Congress Party (a merger between the Nepali Congress Party
and Nepali Congress - Democratic Party) to the success of the
peace process. He added that the Indian Ambassador was ready
to "knock heads" to ensure unification, threatening to
deliver an agreement for the party leaders to sign if they
couldn't make progress on their own.

No Law and Order Under Home Minister Sitaula

KATHMANDU 00001078 002 OF 002


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5. (C) Rana reported that Indian Ambassador Mukherjee,
during recent travels, had discovered low morale across the
Nepal Police and Armed Police Force due to the double role of
the Home Minister (mandated to enforce law and order as well
as be the lead GON negotiator with the Maoists). Rana also
referenced the frustration that existed within the Nepali
Congress Party because Sitaula had retained his seat as Home
Minister in the interim cabinet shuffle. The Ambassador
agreed that enforcement of law and order might be impossible
under Sitaula and questioned why the PM had agreed to keep
the Home Minister on when the interim cabinet was formed.
Rana opined that it was due to a combination of Indian
support for Sitaula and the Maoists making the retention of
his seat in the cabinet a pre-condition for them to join the
government. The Ambassador told Rana that during a
conversation with Sitaula earlier in the day, the Home
Minister had insisted he would begin to enforce law and order
and arrest perpetrators of violence. The Ambassador said it
remained to be seen whether Sitaula could match his words
with action.

Maybe the King Should Take a Vacation
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6. (C) With a meeting planned with the King on May 31, Rana
said he would be suggesting that it might be wise for the
King to spend a few weeks in London, having a medical
check-up and perhaps taking a vacation. (Note: While the
King is in relatively good health, at 59, he holds the record
as the oldest living monarch in Nepal. End Note.) Rana said
he might also encourage Crown Prince Paras to accompany his
father. With their popularity low, and with continued Maoist
allegations that the PM's political moves are at the behest
of the monarchy, Rana told the Ambassador that having the
King and Crown Prince out of the country could be healthy for
the peace process.

Comment
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7. (C) With increasing bickering between the seven parties
and several failed dialogue attempts to move the peace
process forward, a democratic front that could re-unify party
leaders, counter Maoist abuses, and delineate an election
timetable would be welcome. However, such a coalition would
require that the parties overcome their paralyzing
self-interest. We are heartened to hear the Indians may take
a stronger line and will continue to push Home Minister
Sitaula on the law and order situation.
MORIARTY