NEPAL: PARTY LEADERS GROWING INCREASING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001077 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTY LEADERS GROWING INCREASING UNCOMFORTABLE WITH MAOISTS Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings with the Ambassador on May 22 and May 30 both Sher Bahadur Deuba, President of the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D),and Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist SIPDIS Leninist (CPN-UML),blamed Prime Minister Koirala for Nepal's political instability. They asserted that Koirala had not taken adequate steps to set an election date or enforce law and order. Deuba expressed concern that the Maoists continued to use the political process to accomplish their own goals. MK Nepal complained that the Government of Nepal (GON) had never been weaker, and stressed that the GON needed to re-establish law and order. Both leaders emphasized that an election date needed to be set quickly. Deuba told the Ambassador that he was willing to consider unification with the Nepali Congress but that unification had to start at the grassroots. MK Nepal emphasized that the UN-monitored Maoist cantonments were dangerous and that the situation in the Terai was grave. The CPN-UML chief adamantly opposed any review of election districts as drawn by the Delimitation Commission. While both of the concerns raised by the two opposition leaders were mostly valid, their ad hominem attacks against the PM underscored how difficult it will be for the seven-parties to unite against the atrocities committed by the Maoists. Deuba on the Maoists -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 22, Sher Bahadur Deuba, President of the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D),shared with the Ambassador his concern that the political parties continued to grant concessions to the Maoists. Deuba agreed that the political parties should hold the Maoists accountable for returning seized land in the countryside, noting that neither Prime Minister Koirala nor Home Minister Sitaula were willing to take a tough stand on this issue. According to Deuba, the Maoists would continue to push for a republic through the Interim Government and might also take to the streets again in protest. Deuba believed that the Maoists did not want to hold an election, but wanted instead to blame the political parties for a mishandled election process. When asked by the Ambassador whether he thought the Maoist party had started to splinter, Deuba noted that the Maoists have certainly formed "cliques" in recent meetings and it had been apparent that some of the leadership was divided. MK Nepal on the Maoists -------------- ¶3. (C) On May 30, Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),expressed his concern to the Ambassador that, in spite of the support of the people and the international community, the Government of Nepal (GON) and the Prime Minister were still too weak to hold the Maoists and the Young Communist League (YCL) accountable under the law. MK Nepal said he believed that ill intentions were the only explanation for the Prime Minister's inaction and failure to remove Home Minister Sitaula. The CPN-UML chief informed the Ambassador that he had told Pushpa Dahal (a.k.a. Maoist Supremo Prachanda) that Maoist behavior suggested they were planning an insurrection. MK Nepal advised Dahal that this behavior was the problem and that the Maoists needed to abandon violence and intimidation as political tactics. He encouraged Dahal to acknowledge that the people had given the parties a clear political mandate for a parliamentary democracy, not a one-party autocracy. MK Nepal said that he was unaware of the Maoist internal leadership problems but thought they were losing their support in the countryside. He noted that the Maoists were now concentrated in Kathmandu and recruiting from the worst elements of the population. Deuba Says Unification Must Begin at the Local Level -------------- -------------- KATHMANDU 00001077 002 OF 003 ¶4. (C) NC-D President Deuba told the Ambassador that he was not against reunification of the NC-D and the Nepali Congress (NC) party, as long as this process began at the grassroots level. Deuba noted that he could not abandon his district party leaders, stating that it was essential for the leaders of the NC and the NC-D to determine a power-sharing arrangement in the districts before the NC-D could move toward unification in Kathmandu. Deuba asserted that he did not trust Prime Minister Koirala's intentions, implying that the NC might attempt to gain a monopoly on power if the two parties did unite. While Deuba agreed with the Ambassador that party unification would be an important step in preparing for the Constituent Assembly elections, he was unwilling to take the first step to make it happen. (The Ambassador encouraged Deuba to explain to the public that the two parties planned to unite.) Election Date Needs to Be Set -------------- ¶5. (C) In order for Nepal to move forward, both Deuba and MK Nepal agreed a date needed to be set for the Constituent Assembly election. MK Nepal acknowledged that there were many issues that could not be resolved until after an election. Deuba, when asked by the Ambassador whether the political parties had considered the idea of phased elections, noted that this could be a good idea, as it would allow election monitors and security forces enough time to reach and support each polling station. MK Nepal Warns: Maoist Cantonments Dangerous -------------- ¶6. (C) MK Nepal told the Ambassador that he had advised Dahal that Maoist cadre in the camps were dangerous. The people in the cantonments, he cautioned, were organized as regiments that could easily be transformed into a paramilitary structure. Moreover, the General Secretary stressed that the Maoist forces shared a misplaced sense of victory that gave them a false sense of power and privilege. The CPN-UML chief told the Ambassador that he had warned Dahal that, until this structure was dismantled, the Maoist leadership would be under pressure to keep these forces from exploding. MK Nepal suggested that the lower level cadre in the camps should be offered training and integrated into some sort of industrial security force or border patrol. The Ambassador agreed that the cadre needed to be removed from the camps and noted the Maoists were using the camps for both military training and ideological indoctrination. The Ambassador cautioned that integration of the Maoist forces into the Nepal Army would be a big problem. MK Nepal Worried about the Terai -------------- ¶7. (C) MK Nepal expressed his concern about the situation in the Terai. He stressed that the Maoist-splinter Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM),the YCL, and other extremist groups were out of control, and emphasized his frustration that the GON was not acting. The General Secretary, whose house in Rautahat district (in the central Terai) was burned down earlier this year by extremists, suggested that, if the GON were strict, law and order could be restored. In response, the Ambassador cautioned that if the GON went in with force alone the entire Terai would burn. Rather, he stressed, there was a critical need for dialogue with the Madhesi mainstream. This would isolate the radical forces. MK Nepal agreed that dialogue was necessary and that the demands of the mainstream Madhesis were not excessive. Adamantly Opposes Review of Election Districts -------------- - ¶8. (C) The UML General Secretary was adamant that the electoral districts as determined by the Delimitation Commission should stand and that the Interim Constitution did not allow for review. The Ambassador pointed out that this was a big issue for the Madhesis regardless of political KATHMANDU 00001077 003 OF 003 party affiliation. He noted that many Nepalis believed the delimitation process had been flawed and that the districts had been intentionally drawn to disadvantage the Madhesis. The Ambassador suggested that the process was important and that perhaps the Commission needed to hold inquiries at the local level. MK Nepal maintained that the process had not been flawed. He argued that, if the door for review were open, it would be nearly impossible to reach final agreement on the district boundaries. The CPN-UML chief suggested that, if the existing electoral maps were unacceptable, perhaps the solution would be to have a proportional election system based on ethnicity and caste. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The NC-D and CPN-UML leaders seemed increasingly concerned about Maoist intentions. The Maoist plan to stay inside the interim government, using government resources while continuing to apply as much outside pressure as possible, is becoming more and more difficult for the other parties to ignore. But, although the Maoists have come this far, it is unclear whether or not they have an endgame. If they attempt a direct confrontation with the coalition partners they would be forced to deal with the Nepal Army and would immediately lose all international support. Their tactic for now appears to be to continue to push for a republic, the removal of the King, and the restructuring of the army, including its leadership. However, it is hard to imagine that the other parties, however weak and divided, will go along with such a suicidal plan. Violence and intimidation are likely to remain an essential part of the Maoist operation, but such behavior will continue to reduce their support. Deuba and MK Nepal are right that the GON and the people need to stand up to the Maoists. But that will ultimately require their working together with PM Koirala, whom they continue to vilify. MORIARTY