NEPAL: NEW ELECTION DATE STILL PROVING ELUSIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001058

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: NEW ELECTION DATE STILL PROVING ELUSIVE

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

Summary
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1. (C) A leading Nepali Congress - Democratic politician told
the Ambassador May 28 that the governing Eight-Party Alliance
was still at loggerheads over a new date for the Constituent
Assembly election. According to Member of Parliament
Minendra Rijal, Alliance meetings on May 27 and 28 failed to
bridge the gaps. The Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist revived its demand for a purely proportional
system. Meanwhile, the Maoists were insisting Nepal be
declared a republic first. Only then would they agree on a
new election date.

Eight-Party Alliance Struggling For Consensus
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2. (C) On May 28, Minendra Rijal, a nominated Member of the
Interim Parliament for the Nepali Congress - Democratic
(NC-D) and former party spokesman, informed the Ambassador
that agreement on a new date for the Constituent Assembly
election was still proving elusive. Rijal stated that the
governing Eight-Party Alliance had met for the first time in
nearly a month on May 27 and again on May 28, but had not
been able to reach consensus. Rijal said that the first
problem was that the center-left Communist Party of Nepal -
United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) had revived its previous
demand that the election be based on a purely proportional
system. Rijal speculated that the CPN-UML expected it would
get more votes this way than under the mixed
first-past-the-post and proportional system set forth in the
Interim Constitution. The CPN-UML had championed a purely
proportional system prior to the adoption of the Interim
Constitution in January.

Maoists Don't Want An Election
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3. (C) Rijal told the Ambassador that the other problem was
that the Maoists were insisting that Nepal be declared a
republic before they would agree on a new election date.
Given Prime Minister Koirala's repeated rejection of this
approach, the NC-D MP wondered whether the Maoist
pre-condition was not a blatant Maoist effort to prevent an
election entirely. Rijal told the Ambassador that the
Alliance would meet again on May 29 but he was not
particularly hopeful that a third meeting would be any more
successful than the previous two in ending the logjam.

Comment
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4. (C) Rijal is a reliable observer, but his comments reflect
the state of play at the end of the day May 28. The eight
parties are fully capable of coming up with unexpected
compromises, usually involving concessions to the Maoists.
That said, it has now been more than seven weeks since the
Election Commission publicly announced that a June election
could not be accomplished. The Election Commission has
suggested a new date in late November and the UN Mission in
Nepal and donors have signaled their support. Yet no new
date has been announced. The CPN-UML's demand for a purely
proportional system cannot be ignored. It is a demand, as
the CPN-UML has said in its defense, that is shared by many
of the agitating groups, including the Madhesi People's
Rights Forum and the leading indigenous (janajati) group.
But the CPN-UML, we suspect, may eventually back down. Post
is less sure the Maoists will do so. Maoist prospects look
increasingly remote for retaining after a Constituent
Assembly election the same proportion of seats they control
in the Interim Parliament. They thus may see their preferred
scenario as no election at all.
MORIARTY