SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO NEPAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001032 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR DRL A/S BARRY LOWENKRON FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM KDEM PTER NP SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO NEPAL ¶1. Barry, I'm delighted that you are able to make it out to Nepal at this crucial point in the country's history. You will find a country that is teetering on the brink of becoming either a showcase for democratic transformation or a failed or totalitarian state threatening stability in the region. The Political Context -------------- ¶2. A little over a year ago in April 2006, a People's Movement (Jana Andolan, in Nepali),supported both by Nepal's legitimate political parties and by its Maoist insurgents, forced King Gyanendra to abandon his attempts at absolute rule and surrender power to a reinstated Parliament. Since then, negotiations between the parties and the Maoists have resulted in a series of agreements ending the decade-long insurgency, establishing an Interim Parliament with Maoist participation and forming an Interim Government with several Maoist ministers. Six-time Prime Minister and octogenarian G.P. Koirala heads what is now an eight-party coalition government. Its chief focus has been on setting out a process supposedly leading to elections for a Constitutional Assembly and to the absorption of the Maoists into the democratic mainstream. Always fragile, this process currently appears to be at risk. Getting the Maoists Into the Mainstream -------------- ¶3. Perhaps the gravest threat to the peace process comes from the Maoists. Despite a series of signed commitments, they have not yet abandoned violence, intimidation, and extortion. Indeed, both their actions and their leaders' words suggest that their goal remains a monopoly on state power and not power-sharing within a democratic framework. To date, the government has facilitated Maoist obduracy by refusing to enforce the law and crack down on Maoist abuses for fear that doing so would force the erstwhile insurgents to resume fighting. Instead, the government has made a series of unilateral concessions to the Maoists, including giving them the keys to UN-monitored containers where they agreed to place their weapons and inviting them into an Interim Government before they completed the process of arms management. ¶4. Despite having violated their most fundamental commitments, the Maoists obtained five Ministries in the Interim Government, which was formed on April 1. The Maoists 
were placed in charge of the Ministries of Information, Local Development, Planning and Works, Forestry, and Women and Children. The Maoists openly maintain that the speedy holding of Constitutional Assembly elections is less important than immediately removing the King and declaring Nepal a "democratic republic." They have threatened to take to the streets, if the Interim Government does not take action soon against the King. ¶5. The Maoists have neither returned captured land to its original owners nor stopped extortion throughout the countryside, as they agreed to do before entering the Interim Government. To date, the Maoists have placed over 30,000 supposed combatants into UN-supervised cantonments, but have only placed 3,400 weapons into containers at those camps. The majority of the alleged combatants appear to be recent recruits and children. One positive development is that verification of the identity of the combatants, which the Maoists had been holding up, may begin the week of your arrival. Recently, acts of violence by the Maoist Young Communist League (YCL) and by Maoist splinter groups such as the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha ("Democratic Terai Liberation Front") (JTMM) have escalated in the countryside. The Maoists are finding their political influence in large parts of the country diminished by a flaring up of ethnic tensions. Addressing Marginalized Groups -------------- KATHMANDU 00001032 002 OF 003 ¶6. Expectations among Nepal's many marginalized groups were raised by Maoist calls during the insurgency for regional autonomy and ethnic rights, as well as by hopes that the Constitutional Assembly process would lead to their having a greater say in national affairs. These expectations went largely unmet, however, as the parties and the Maoists cut a deal behind closed doors in January on the Interim Constitution that did almost nothing to address the grievances of the marginalized groups. This failure to address expectations has resulted in considerable disappointment among these groups, who appear increasingly inclined to use violence to advance their cause. ¶7. The first group to hit the streets to demand action was the Madhesis, relatively recent immigrants from India who live in Nepal's southern plains (the Terai) and account for about one-third of Nepal's population. In February, the Madhesis called a ten-day strike that closed the roads from India, leading to severe shortages of petroleum and food in Kathmandu and elsewhere. Clashes between the Madhesis and the Maoists (who view the Madhesi movement as a threat to Maoist standing in the Terai) and police (who contain very few Madhesis in their ranks) have to date resulted in over sixty deaths. There was a particularly bloody incident in Gaur in March in which almost 30 people, all Maoists, lost their lives. The Madhesis are demanding greater representation in the Constitutional Assembly through a new Constituency Delimitation Commission, as well as the formation of a Commission of Inquiry into alleged police brutality in the Terai. The new Minister for Peace and Reconstruction is leading the government's talks. ¶8. Although the Prime Minister proposed various constitutional reforms in February and the Interim Constitution was in fact amended to spell out a federal structure more explicitly, the government has yet to flesh out how far it is prepared to go to make the political process more inclusive. In addition to the Madhesis, the Janjatis (ethnic Tibeto-Burmans who comprise about 35 percent of Nepal's population) are demanding a greater share of power. Other groups, including Nepal's dalits (or untouchable castes - 15 percent of the population) and women (51 percent of the population) are also beginning to demand a voice. While these are precisely the sort of questions that a Constitutional Assembly should discuss, the government's unwillingness to engage in a roundtable dialogue with the disaffected groups has allowed the situation to fester and raised fears that the government and parties wish to keep power in the hands of the political elite. The Current Stalemate -------------- ¶9. The Constitutional Assembly election was supposed to take place in June. Although the Election Commission made it clear to the government in April that a June poll would be impossible, the parties have yet to reach agreement on a new date. An election in late November (the generally preferred date) will not be doable, however, if the government does not come to terms with the Madhesis (whose MPs have shut down the Parliament for a month) and other agitating groups, complete the necessary electoral legislation, and restore law and order. Six months is not a great deal of time. One debate which is just getting started is how to deal with Nepal's dark past. Under the peace agreements, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission is supposed to be established. Because of ongoing Maoist abuses, most Internally Displaced Persons have still not been able to return to their homes. Human Rights and Other Issues -------------- ¶10. Nepal's human rights situation has improved since parliament was restored in April 2006. Abuses by the Nepal Army, the Armed Police Force (APF),and the Nepal Police decreased substantially after the April cease-fire declaration, although Maoist abuses, such as abduction, extortion, and violence, have continued relatively unabated. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement in November called for the KATHMANDU 00001032 003 OF 003 Nepal Police and the APF to enforce law and order. That said, the Home Minister, who remains the chief negotiator with the Maoists, has in the past ordered the police not to endanger the peace process by taking action against the Maoists. The government took steps a year ago to restore civil liberties that had been suspended before the People's Movement and repealed the Press and Publications Act, which had prohibited the publication of material that undermined security, peace, or the institution of the monarchy. We continue to urge the Government of Nepal to investigate past abuses by the Nepal Army and the other security forces and to call for Maoist accountability. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has its largest field office in the world in Nepal and OHCHR and the National Human Rights Commission (in spite of its lack of commissioners) both actively report on the country's human rights situation. Meanwhile, the Nepal Bar Association has launched its DRL-funded program to increase civil society awareness of the election process. What You Can Do For Us -------------- ¶11. I hope your trip will provide you a clear understanding of the complexities of Nepal and of how we have been seeking to promote U.S. interests here. As Embassy Kathmandu's most senior visitor since then Under Secretary for Management Henrietta Fore's visit in March, you will be asked for Washington's latest views on Nepal's fast-paced developments. In your conversations with Nepalis, you might therefore want to concentrate on a few core themes: -- The U.S. strongly supports Nepal's peace process, and we will do what we can to help ensure its success. We want to see a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Nepal. We think it is important that the parties reach agreement on, and announce, an election date as soon as possible. -- We thus want to see the Maoists come into the political mainstream and endorse the values of democracy. To date, however, Maoist actions and words cast doubt upon their commitment to democracy. Until they support the rule of law and abandon violence and intimidation, the Maoists cannot be considered a mainstream political party. No legitimate party practices politics through the barrel of a gun. -- We have no position on the future of the monarchy. That is for the people of Nepal to decide. -- We hope that the political parties and government will find ways to listen to the voices of all of Nepal's people and bring them all into an inclusive, democratic society. At the same time, nothing justifies the use of violence as a political tool, including by groups that legitimately feel marginalized within their society. -- Coming to terms with Nepal's past is crucial to ensure that the people of Nepal will not suffer again in the future. I look forward to your arrival. MORIARTY