NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANT VERIFICATION TO BEGIN SOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001009 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER MARR UN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOIST COMBATANT VERIFICATION TO BEGIN SOON Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 21, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor Dr. Suresh Chalise confirmed to Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Robert Hugins that the Maoists had agreed to allow verification of Maoist combatants to begin. Chalise expected verification might commence within a week. Prime Minister Koirala had promised to provide money to everyone in the UN-monitored cantonments, regardless of their status, and to establish a commission to recommend how Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) combatants could be integrated into Nepal's security forces. PM Koirala also planned to discuss the need for Maoists to return property and to check the behavior of Young Communist League activists with Maoist Chairman Pushpa Dahal (alias Prachanda). Chalise said that the President of the splinter Nepali Congress - Democratic, Sher Bahadur Deuba, had refused the Prime Minister's offer to appoint Deuba the senior Vice President of a unified Nepali Congress. Verification of Maoist Combatants to Begin -------------- ¶2. (C) Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister Dr. Suresh Chalise confirmed May 21 to Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Robert Hugins that the Maoists had agreed to begin verification of Maoist combatants shortly. Chalise expected it might commence as soon as the week of May 28. Prime Minister G.P. Koirala's agreement to provide financial assistance to all the Maoist "combatants" registered by the United Nations during the first phase of arms management had made progress possible, Chalise said. Chalise detailed that the Government of Nepal (GON) would pay NRs 3,000 for every month a non-combatant had been in the cantonments (for six months, this would equal roughly USD 275 per person). For verified PLA combatants, the GON had agreed to cover food and lodging expenses, as well as to provide pocket money, similar to what Nepal Army soldiers received. Chalise hinted that the political parties were inclined to give the money as a lump sum to the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoists (CPN-M). The Acting DCM suggested that the CPN-M would benefit less if the GON provided the money directly to the individuals. Chalise agreed to consider that alternative. The PM had also promised to establish a commission (as provided in the Interim Constitution) to explore how PLA fighters could be integrated into Nepal's security forces, the PM's advisor added. Maoists Need to Return Property, Check YCL Activities -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The Foreign Policy Advisor stressed that the Maoists needed to return seized property, including to political party workers, before the Constituent Assembly election could take place. But the Maoists appeared to have hardened their position lately and "were in no mood to return property," he said. Chalise expected the Prime Minister to speak to Prachanda about this issue either May 21 or 22. He concurred that the GON needed to take stronger action against Young Communist League (YCL) cadre, but complained that party leaders from the rest of the Seven-Party Alliance had failed to support a strong GON crackdown. The other parties preferred to shirk the difficult task of governing the country and place the blame for any misstep squarely on the PM's shoulders, he suggested. In an earlier conversation with PM Koirala that day, Chalise said, he had told the PM that Nepali Congress (NC) was losing broad public support in the Terai because of Home Minister Sitaula's failure to impose law and order. Chalise indicated that the Prime Minister would not seek agreement on the dates for the election until Maoist combatant issues were resolved and the Maoists had returned property. Unification Possible Between NC and NC-D? -------------- KATHMANDU 00001009 002 OF 002 ¶4. (C) Chalise noted that most political party workers supported unification between NC and NC-D, but that the real problem lay with NC-D President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who wanted to be the number two in a unified party. However, Chalise averred, many NC central committee members blamed Deuba for dissolving the Parliament in 2002, which had led the King to subsequently dissolve the government and take control. Despite Deuba's unpopularity in NC, and even within some NC-D factions, PM Koirala was willing to support Deuba for the senior Vice President position and as Koirala's heir apparent as Prime Minister. In this scenario, current NC Vice President Sushil Koirala would be the junior Vice President and, if Deuba became Prime Minister, would become acting NC President. Chalise claimed that Deuba had rejected this proposal and had done so because he feared that opposition within his own NC-D, combined with opposition within the NC, might lead the combined central committee to vote him out of his leadership position. Chalise also suggested that Deuba had calculated that, if PM Koirala's health failed, Deuba would become the leader of Nepal's "democratic" parties and could then unify the parties under his own terms. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Post is delighted to hear that UN-monitored verification of Maoist combatants is expected to proceed soon, although it appears that the Nepal government again gave concessions to the Maoists without getting anything in return. According to press reports, the Joint Monitoring Coordinating Committee, which brings together the Nepal Army and the People's Liberation Army under the chairmanship of the United Nations, is supposed to decide May 24 when and how combatant verification will begin. The sooner, the better in our book. We share the Prime Minister's advisor's concern about the Maoists' hard-line, and the popular dissatisfaction with Home Minister Sitaula's failure to enforce law and order, including against the Young Communist League. At the same time, we are dismayed by the PM's lack of enthusiasm for setting an election date. We will be reminding the GON that its major responsibility right now is to prepare the way for elections by including marginalized groups in a national dialogue and by restoring law and order in the countryside. MORIARTY