UGANDA/SOMALIA: MILITARY AND CIVILIAN VIEWPOINTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000854 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2017 TAGS: PREL EAID KPKO MOPS ET SO ER KE UG SUBJECT: UGANDA/SOMALIA: MILITARY AND CIVILIAN VIEWPOINTS ON DEPLOYMENT REF: KAMPALA 842 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). ¶1. (C) Summary: Support for Uganda's deployment to Somalia remains firm among Ugandan military and civilian officials. During Africa Bureau Deputy Assistant Secretary James Swan's visit to Uganda from May 7-9, the Minister of Defense, Chief of Defense Forces, and parliamentarians raised a number of political and security issues. Ugandan officials view their role in Somalia as long-term and as one of delivering a government to stabilize the situation. To achieve this objective, Uganda wants its forces augmented by other troop contributors, an organized and wide scale humanitarian effort, and diplomatic pressure on the Transitional Federal Government to include all societal elements. Parliamentarians also voiced continued support for the Ugandan deployment, but urged the U.S. to play a low key role to preserve Uganda's neutrality as peacekeepers. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On May 7 and 8, Africa Bureau Deputy Assistant Secretary James Swan, Ambassador Browning, P/E Chief, and SIPDIS DATT discussed Uganda's deployment to Somalia with various government officials including parliamentarians, the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of Defense Forces. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UGANDA COMMITTED TO SOMALIA DEPLOYMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) On May 8, Minister of Defense Crispus Kiyonga and Chief of Defense Forces Aronda Nyakarima expressed optimism that the Somalia problem could be solved. On the military front, Kiyonga stated that the arrival of other African units and a transition from an African Union to a United Nations force were critical elements to stabilizing the security situation. On the political front, Kiyonga said pressure was needed to make the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) inclusive. A strong message should be delivered to Eritrea to stop supporting subversive elements, according to Kiyonga, and the delivery of humanitarian and development projects would enhance support for the TFG among the population and help lower he level of societal tension. DAS Swan informed Kiyonga that the U.S. would be providing $10 million in development assistance to Somalia, which would help cover the costs of the reconciliation conference. The timing may not yet be right for a donors conference as some countries want to await the outcome of the reconciliation efforts. The U.S. also has requested additional funds for Somalia. ¶4. (C) Ambassador Browning asked Kiyonga if Uganda was reaching out to other potential troop contributors. Kiyonga said yes, but the negative publicity of the situation was discouraging other contributors. He stated that the Union of Islamic Courts was "good" at publicity. He said that Ghana could deploy if provided more resources, including logistics. Kiyonga also said that President Museveni raised the issue of other troop contributors with the African Union's General Secretary, Alpha Konare, when he visited Kampala in late SIPDIS April. According to Kiyonga and General Aronda, the U.N. wanted peace established before it would come to Somalia. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CONCERNS ABOUT OUTSIDE SUPPORT FOR TFG ENEMIES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Al Qaeda cells were recruiting fighters for $50 per hour during the last spate of serious violence, according to Kiyonga. He stated that there was a lull in the fighting when the individual sent to Massawa, Eritrea to get more funds did not return and there was no money to pay the mercenaries to continue fighting. Kiyonga stated that the fighters on the ground in Somalia were able to regroup quickly and did not need large numbers to create chaos. TFG President Yusuf is vulnerable and his opponents only have to be lucky once to kill him. However, Uganda had to be lucky every day in order to protect him. Kiyonga said that the TFG's enemies almost captured the commander of the Ethiopian forces. In addition to Eritrea, Kiyonga said that members of the Arab League, Sudan, and Egypt were supporting the TFG's enemies. Kiyonga reported that after President Museveni left Eritrea in March, President Isaias had "put out the red carpet" for the TFG's opponents. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CONCERNS ABOUT INTERNAL DYNAMICS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) From Uganda's perspective, there are internal problems that must be overcome to stabilize the situation in KAMPALA 00000854 002 OF 003 Somalia, according to Kiyonga. The first problem was President Yusuf's historically bad relationship with the Mayor of Mogadishu. A second problem was the presence of profiteers, such as the former Defense Minister who controlled the port and airport at Kismayo and who views the TFG's attempts to gain control over strategic locations as limiting revenue-making activities. A third obstacle was that young Somalis do not know what a government was or does for its people. Uganda wants to create a situation that demonstrates the benefits of government in terms of law, order, and prosperity. A fourth reality was that the genuine resentment of Ethiopia by the Hawiya clan was hindering progress. Kiyonga hoped that once a Ghanaian battalion arrived, one Ethiopian battalion could rotate out to lessen the antagonism. Defense Minister Kiyonga said that he had no sense of when Ethiopia would pull out. - - - - - - - - - CONCERNS ABOUT AU - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) General Aronda presented a long list of his impressions of the situation on the ground in Somalia. He began with the African Union's shortcomings. First, Aronda said there was a lack of a serious African Union political presence in Mogadishu. Second, Uganda agreed with the U.S. and U.K. to help beef up the AU's strategic planning cell. As a result, Uganda transferred Director of its Command and Staff College, Major General Beno Birao, to Addis Ababa to strengthen planning for AMISOM. (Note: The issue of the AU's non-payment of the peackeepers' salaries is being raised in the press and among some political figures in Kampala. Policymakers are alarmed by the AU's expectation that Uganda pay first and be re-imbursed later. End Note.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CONCERNS ABOUT YUSUF AND GHEDI - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) Aronda's next issues all related to the TFG. Aronda advised that Yusuf needed to drop Prime Minister Ghedi, who is divisive and blocking dialogue. Yusuf himself is violating the TFG charter and needs to be reined in. Aronda said that the lack of a Somali transitional force also is problematic. One needs to be trained and stood up to counter the negative influence of the militias that report to each subclan. The Ugandans have asked Yusuf repeatedly for the plans for the preparation of the reconciliation talks. He has yet to share them and he was losing credibility on the issue. Aronda warned that there were signs that Yusuf was preparing to be a military, rather than civilian leader. Aronda proposed a contact group of regional presidents to move him in the right direction. If no action was taken, Aronda was concerned that Yusuf would institute military rule. Aronda warned that without an organized humanitarian intervention, Yusuf could continue to blame others for the desperate situation. Kiyonga said Uganda sounded out Kenya about the idea of the Contact Group, but Kibaki was "unenthusiastic" and the chairmanship of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development's move to Addis Ababa could undermine the group. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PLEA FOR MORE INTELLIGENCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Aronda's final pitch was for stronger intelligence sharing. He said the Ugandans had taken U.S. advice and named experienced officers to key liaison and planning positions. Aronda said a Lieutenant Colonel was sent to Djibouti to serve as a liaison officer to CJTF-HOA and that Birao's appointment to the AU in Addis Ababa was a sign of Uganda's commitment to making AMISOM effective. Aronda said that Uganda appreciated the maps provided by CJTF-HOA, but was concerned that there was little intelligence sharing on Somalia with Uganda. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - CIVILIAN VIEWS ON SOMALIA DEPLOYMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (SBU) Ugandan parliamentarians continue to support Uganda's deployment to Somalia. Opposition leader Morris Onenga Latigo told DAS Swan on May 8 that he had personally "put his head on the block" within his party to support Uganda's deployment to Somalia. Latigo expressed appreciation that Defense Minister Crispus Kiyonga came to him twice to explain the modalities of the Somalia deployment and keeps him updated on developments. Two weeks ago, he said, Kiyonga appeared before Parliament to give a situation update. The MPs have asked to be notified when Ugandan KAMPALA 00000854 003 OF 003 soldiers were killed so that the member representing the deceased can ensure the family was properly notified. Even though the opposition had walked out of parliament during the period of the vote, opposition MPs participated in committee and caucus meetings on the issue. Latigo issued a public statement of opposition support for the deployment. Latigo stated that the opposition would continue to support the deployment. ¶12. (SBU) Latigo stated that it was important that AMISON was to be augmented and that the TFG be pressured to reach out to all constituencies in Somalia. Latigo said that this remains a contentious issue among Muslim members of Parliament. U.S.-trained himself, Latigo also expressed appreciation for U.S. training for Ugandan soldiers because he said military officers trained in the United States behave differently. It will be important to have U.S.-trained officers in Somalia because they have a different mind-set, are outward looking, and understand human rights and civilian control. All of these factors help the military step back from participating in politics. Latigo said that in his view, it was very important for the opposition to show support and understanding for the military. ¶13. (SBU) Latigo was interested in the U.S. position on independence for Somaliland. He said that Somaliland "appears to be working" and that the Ugandan MPs had received a delegation of Somaliland parliamentarians. DAS Swan told Latigo that discussion of Somaliland's independence need to be driven by its neighbors and that the issue was presented regularly at African Union meetings. Latigo expressed support for Somaliland's independence and said that Parliament might issue a resolution recognizing the progress that had been made. ¶14. (SBU) In a separate meeting with northern parliamentarians (Reftel),DAS Swan heard similar statements of support for Uganda's deployment to Somalia. However, the MPs said that the U.S. should not play too public a role on Somalia. They told DAS Swan that it was better if the U.S. kept its support for the Ugandan deployment behind-the-scenes rather than publicize it. Parliamentarians supported Uganda's deployment because it was an African initiative to help another African country. They expressed concern about Uganda's current reliance on Ethiopia as potentially jeopardizing Uganda's role as a neutral party. Likewise, Uganda's neutrality could be undermined if it was perceived to be too close to the United States. Nonetheless, the parliamentarians appreciated U.S. assistance. They raised the issue of the African Union's non-payment of AMISOM salaries. CHRITTON