LRA PEACE PROCESS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 001894 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017 TAGS: PHUM PREL MOPS PGOV SU UG SUBJECT: LRA PEACE PROCESS UPDATE REF: KAMPALA 1842 Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) . ¶1. (SBU) Turmoil within the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), including the execution of LRA deputy leader Vincent Otti and recent defections, have injected uncertainty into the future of the peace process. The LRA negotiating team's consultations were set to wrap up in Uganda on December 8, but funding problems, confusion over next steps, and fear of LRA leader Kony appear to be delaying the delegation's departure. Martin Ojul informed donors that the peace process would be finished by the end of February or early March. The LRA consultations at Rikwangba would begin in early January. For its part, the GOU appears mostly content to allow the LRA to work out its internal problems while it encourages LRA defections. LRA CONSULTATIONS WRAP UP IN UGANDA -------------- ¶2. (C) In a briefing for donors on December 4, LRA delegation leader Martin Ojul said that the LRA delegation would travel to Juba on December 10 to meet with Riek Machar, the Government of Southern Sudan mediator. Ojul remained on message when the donors asked about LRA deputy Otti's fate, reporting that Kony said that Otti was under house arrest. Ray Achama, an LRA member of the Cessation of Hostilities Monitoring Team (CHMT) told P/E Chief that Ojul knows Otti is dead, but Ojul cannot contradict Kony, whom he fears intensely. Ojul also told the donors that the consultative meeting at Rikwangba would start on January 2. He stated that the peace process could be completed at the end of February. These dates began slipping as soon as Ojul uttered them. U.N. officials indicated consultations would begin the second week of January. Ojul told P/E Chief privately that mid-March was a more "accurate" target date for ending the talks. GOU CONTENT TO WAIT -------------- ¶3. (C) Publicly, the GOU continues to pledge its support for the peace process. GOU Chief Negotiator Ruhakana Rugunda said that the GOU was comfortable with allowing Kony time to "sort himself out." Henry Okello Oryem, the GOU team's deputy, said that Ugandan officials do not plan on returning to Juba until after the new year. Captain Barigye, the GOU delegation spokesman, told P/E Chief on December 6 that the GOU was on a two-track approach. First, the GOU would contain Kony's ability to act, by denying him access to arms caches in southern Sudan and northern Uganda. The GOU also has alerted the Central African Republic of Kony's reported intentions to relocate there. The GOU would continue to encourage LRA defections, and take all measures to defend its borders from incursions. Second, while the GOU was highly skeptical of the current LRA negotiating team's authority to negotiate for Kony, the GOU would continue to participate in the Juba Peace Talks. CHRITTON