UGANDA: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSIONAL STAFF DELEGATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KAMPALA 001050 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL MOPS EAID SU UG SUBJECT: UGANDA: SCENESETTER FOR CONGRESSIONAL STAFF DELEGATION SHANNON SMITH AND MICHAEL KUIKEN (JULY 4-7) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Uganda is a productive player for U.S. policy interests in Africa, with Ugandan troops deploying to Somalia assisted by U.S. money and logistics. On the humanitarian and development side, Uganda vigorously supports a number of U.S. initiatives including Presidential initiatives on HIV/AIDS (PEPFAR) and malaria (PMI),and U.S. free trade and free market objectives. Uganda cooperates fully in the War on Terror, and is highly receptive to U.S. training and presence. ¶2. (SBU) Uganda also has a number of challenges. Uganda's search for a peaceful resolution to the 21-year long conflict with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) continues, but is stalled because of delaying tactics at the negotiating table by the LRA delegates in Juba, southern Sudan. The Ugandan military is facing serious challenges as it carries out a forcible disarmament program in Karamoja, which has resulted in numerous deaths. The United States is the largest bilateral donor for humanitarian efforts to assist the 1.5 million displaced persons in northern Uganda. President Museveni is facing significant internal pressure from within the ruling party on issues of succession, accountability, and human rights and media freedoms. Museveni supports liberal market principles and foreign investment, although corruption remains a problem. Uganda recently was approved for a Threshold Program with the Millenium Challenge Corporation, and will receive $10 million for anti-corruption measures. Uganda reduced its HIV/AIDS rate from 18 percent in 1992 to 6.4 percent in 2006, and received $236 million in 2007 as a focus country for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - PEACE AND SECURITY - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) The security situation in northern Uganda improved dramatically over the past year. The insurgent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA),which was pushed into Congo in December 2005, agreed to negotiate with the Government of Uganda. Talks began in July 2006 and yielded a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CHA). LRA combatants have moved out of northern Uganda. With the exception of a few small groups, those in southern Sudan have moved toward Rikwangba, a designated assembly area in southern Sudan. There have been LRA attacks along key roads between Uganda and Juba, but since August 2006, there has been just one in northern Uganda. The LRA's top leadership remains in Garamba National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo. ¶4. (SBU) The peace process continues at Juba, Southern Sudan mediated by GOSS Vice President Riek Machar. U.N. Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas, former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano, adeptly overcame the LRA's complaints about the mediator, per diem, the venue for the talks, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrants in April. The talks reconvened with the parties reaching agreement on Agenda Item Two: Comprehensive Solutions on May 1. Currently, the parties are working on the third agenda item, Justice and Accountability Mechanisms. Both sides agreed that a national legal solution combined with traditional reconciliation mechanisms would be the basis for discussions. Despite LRA procedural machinations that would lead to protracted delays in discussions, the GOU has accommodated many of the LRA's demands. The talks will likely recess in coming weeks for the parties to consult with key stakeholders in northern Uganda. ¶5. (SBU) In northeastern Uganda, the Government's forcible disarmament program has coincided with increased insecurity and violence in Karamoja. Humanitarian agencies report that the security situation in Kotido, Kaabong, and Abim districts continues to deteriorate as the result of armed confrontations between the UPDF and Karamojong warriors. ¶6. (SBU) Ugandan troops deployed to Somalia as part of an African Union Peacekeeping Mission (AMISOM) in March. President Museveni, during his tenure as head of IGAD, oversaw the establishment of the Transitional Federal Government and Institutions, and committed to send Ugandan troops. The Ugandans believe that a stable Somalia is necessary for peace and stability throughout East Africa, especially for ending the flow of small arms into Karamoja. Uganda wants other African countries which pledged troops to follow through on their commitment to join Ugandan's 1500 troops. Uganda's Major General Levi Karahunga, a veteran of the Liberia peacekeeping mission, is AMISOM's force commander. The U.S. continues to provide support for Uganda's AMISOM deployment through the African Contingency Response Training and Assistance (ACOTA) program. Training is underway for Uganda's two battalions that will rotate into Somalia in August. ¶7. (SBU) Uganda is proud to be part of the fight against global terror. Government officials are preoccupied with the spread of Arab fundamentalism. They frequently and publicly make the distinction between Arab states, such as Sudan and Eritrea and black KAMPALA 00001050 002 OF 004 African neighbors. Uganda is a predominately Christian country and promotes good relations with its Muslim community. - - - - - - - - - - - - HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) The 21-year old LRA conflict displaced over 1.5 million people. Hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned near or to their lands as the result of improved security. Residents of Lango and Teso district have left IDP camps and those in Gulu are beginning to do so in higher numbers. The Government lacks a clear, consistent message on returns, which has been a particular problem in Kitgum, the district closest to the border with Sudan. ¶9. (SBU) The improved security situation has led to a decline in the numbers of night commuters--children who seek sleep in shelters to avoid abduction from the LRA--to 2,700, according to UNICEF. These numbers are down from 23,885 in December 2005. Surveys indicate the number of children that continue to commute do so for reasons other than fear of abduction, such as domestic abuse and availability of services. - - - - - - - - USG ACTIVITIES - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) Various Mission agencies are working together to enhance peace and security in northern Uganda through a three-pronged strategy of humanitarian, political, and military assistance. Our overall assistance in FY06 exceeded $88 million. The U.S. is the largest bilateral donor of food assistance for the 1.5 million displaced persons and refugees. We provide a variety of other water, health, and sanitation assistance. We support UNHCR and others in programs to ensure the safe and voluntary return of displaced persons to their homes or intermediate locations. ¶11. (SBU) We have promoted reconciliation, dialogue, and reintegration of former combatants through USAID programs aimed at mitigating conflict. Embassy officers in Kampala and Juba engage with key players in the negotiations. Modest amounts of Defense Department funds are being used to provide non-lethal assistance to help the UPDF protect civilians and relief supplies in northern Uganda. CJTF-HOA is working on humanitarian projects with the UPDF in northern Uganda to improve civilian-military relations. Post is using IMET, ACOTA, and ACSS programs as well as participation in regional exercises to enhance the professionalism of the Ugandan military. On Somalia, the State Department funded the logistics of the UPDF's deployment while CJTF-HOA provided logisticians and members of the DAO's office coordinated the operation with the UPDF. - - - - - - - - - - - - - DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (SBU) One year after returning to multi-party rule, Uganda is experiencing growing pains. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party is grappling with internal dissent among younger parliamentarians who resent the monopolistic behavior of the Movement's "historicals." Museveni also is being challenged by the historicals, who are interested in succession. Press reports suggest that the President is increasingly isolated at State House. Some cabinet members complain that Museveni's personal secretary prevents them from discussing national issues with him, leaving the President out-of-touch with ordinary Ugandans. As a result, the government has made several missteps in the past few months, including the siege of the High Court by government security agents to prevent the release of suspects in a treason case. ¶13. (SBU) Opposition parties remain weak, personality-based, and susceptible to intimidation and manipulation by the Executive Branch. The opposition's primary tools are press and protest because they are substantially outnumbered in parliament and traditional media outlets are at times intimidated by the government. ¶14. (SBU) The government's human rights record needs improvement, particularly with respect to cases of arbitrary arrest and detentions and lengthy pre-trial detention. However, the consensus of a wide range of UN agencies, international and local NGOs, and civil society organizations indicates that over the past year, the UPDF has demonstrated marked improvement in respecting the human rights of the IDPs under their protection in northern Uganda. While abuses were at one time common, and do still happen (particularly involving local defense units),they can now be categorized as individual incidents that do not occur as result of orders from KAMPALA 00001050 003 OF 004 senior officials, and are no longer part and parcel of the institution. ¶15. (SBU) The reasons for this improvement are attributable to a number of factors, including lowered tensions due to a reduction in the threat level, reassignment of the most notorious UPDF commanders whose units were associated with human rights abuses, increased international attention, and ongoing training by the USG, ICRC, and other organizations on international standards of human rights and humanitarian law. Organizations continue to monitor abuses and are working through the UN's cluster approach to improve reporting measures. The forcible disarmament program in Karamoja, however, has opened up the UPDF to new allegations of abuse, particularly extensive force. - - - - - - - - ECONOMIC GROWTH - - - - - - - - ¶16. (SBU) President Museveni is a steadfast supporter of free market principles and remains committed to liberalizing the economy, containing inflation, and encouraging economic growth, and foreign investment. Foreign debt has dropped from over USD 6 billion in 2004 to USD 1.6 billion in 2007 through debt relief programs. Uganda is attempting to diversify its agriculture-based economy, focusing on non-traditional, high-value items such as vanilla, processed fish, and cut flowers. The pace of economic growth has remained consistent over the last twelve years with annual GDP growth rates between 5-6 percent. Foreign direct investment is increasing. The fastest growing sectors are construction, transportation and telecommunications. Uganda's tourism industry is earning a significant amount of foreign exchange. ¶17. (SBU) The GOU is trying to manage public expectations regarding oil discoveries in Uganda. In October 2006, the Canadian firm, Heritage Oil, announced the first oil discovering on the shores of Lake Albert. The other exploration company, Australian-based Hardman, is partnering with Tullow, a British firm. Libya's TamOil is the primary investor in a proposed pipeline from Uganda to Kenya. Chinese firms are also interested in expanding their investments to include Uganda's oil. General Electric's Oil and Gas division based in Italy is interested in identifying potential projects in this sector, but is waiting to see if the next project tenders for oil-related projects will be transparent. ¶18. (SBU) An ongoing energy crisis, corruption and inadequate transport infrastructure have hampered economic development and investor confidence. The energy crisis, which started in late 2005 due to poor energy planning coupled with a significant drop in Lake Victoria water levels, severely decreased electricity generation from hydroelectric power. Recent rains are increasing hydroelectric power output and new leadership in the Ministry of Energy has added 100 megawatts of thermal generator power to help fill the power gap. Uganda was approved by the Millenium Challenge Corporation for a two-year $10.4 million Threshold Country Program (TCP) in Uganda to provide technical assistance, training and equipment to the Government of Uganda's anti-corruption agencies and the civil society organizations. - - - - - - - - - - INVESTING IN PEOPLE - - - - - - - - - - ¶19. (SBU) Uganda is a focus country for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and received $236 million in PEPFAR funds in FY 2007 for the Centers for Disease Control, USAID, NIH, Peace Corps, and Defense and State Department programs. The program is one of the largest in Africa, along with South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. The PEPFAR Program in Uganda is being implemented in partnership with over 70 international and local organizations. ¶20. (SBU) Uganda is one of the few countries in the world that has successfully brought its prevalence rates down. Uganda's HIV/AIDS infection rate peaked at 18 percent in 1992 and has decreased to 6.4 percent in 2006. The decline is largely the result of an aggressive public awareness campaign and significant donor support for programs that provide comprehensive prevention, treatment, care and support services for those infected and living with HIV/AIDS, orphans and vulnerable children, and pregnant mothers. The highest prevalence rates are in the northern conflict regions and the central region. ¶21. (SBU) The estimated 135,000 new infections over the past year have caused concern that Uganda's success to date could be threatened. Transmission occurs mainly through heterosexual contact (75 to 80 percent),while mother-to-child HIV transmission accounts for 15-25 percent of new infections and medical transmission is responsible for about two percent of new infections. A recently KAMPALA 00001050 004 OF 004 conducted sero-behavioral survey indicated that some of the factors that are driving the epidemic are: an increase in multiple partners; a decrease in men's consistent use of condoms with casual partners; a high prevalence (60 percent) of genital herpes, which predisposes an individual to acquiring HIV; and HIV discordance in couples, i.e., when one person is HIV positive and the other is HIV negative. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ACTIVITIES - EXCHANGES AND PRESS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶22. (U) In FY 2006, our Cultural Affairs office sent 51 Ugandans to the United States on a range of different exchange and educational grants. In addition, during the 2005-06 academic year, some 588 Ugandans were enrolled in U.S. institutions of higher education. Ugandans value the chance to visit and to study in the United States, and many Ugandan political and economic leaders are graduates of U.S. academic programs or former participants in USG-funded exchanges. ¶23. (U) The Ugandan press is primarily interested in U.S. government support for the Museveni government - or opposition politicians; the availability of U.S. visas; and U.S. aid (development and humanitarian and military) to Uganda. The press and public, while aware that the U.S. is a big donor to Uganda, often fail to understand the mechanics of U.S. foreign assistance and how to access it for particular communities and individuals. - - - - - - OUR MESSAGE - - - - - - ¶24. (SBU) U.S. efforts to mitigate the effects of the conflict in the North and bring about a resolution and reconciliation to the conflict in the North dominate our peace and security agenda. More recently, U.S. assistance for the Ugandan deployment to Somalia has increased our security focus. We continue to advance our interests in encouraging multi-partyism and political competition, economic transparency, and combating HIV/AIDS. Our message to the Museveni government includes: --Recognizing Museveni's efforts to bring about a peaceful resolution to the 21-year old conflict with the LRA. The GOU has demonstrated restraint and patience during the peace talks at Juba. The USG supports the Juba venue and Government of South Sudan's mediation efforts. --Reaffirming our commitment to working with the GOU to mitigate regional tensions. We encourage Uganda to continue talking to its neighbors, particularly Congo, to deal with the regional aspects of the LRA problem. --Appreciating Uganda's long-standing commitment to deploy to Somalia and the high level of professionalism demonstrated during the deployment preparations. --Assisting the development of a democratic system, which includes strong civil society and democratic institutions, respect for human rights and rule of law, and transparency and accountability. --Partnering with Uganda in the war against terror. We look forward to continuing to work with Uganda on the global war on terror and other programs of bilateral cooperation. BROWNING