NATIONAL FRONT: REFERENDUM ON KARZAI?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000919 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT, S/CR, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR KIMMITT CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF SUBJECT: NATIONAL FRONT: REFERENDUM ON KARZAI? Classified By: A/DCM Carol Rodley for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Several jihadi commanders, concerned about the worsening security situation across the country have formed a political group, the National Front (NF),with two mandates: (1) changing the system of government to a parliamentary model and (2) electing governors (vice Presidential appointment system). The NF, with at least 20 founding members who represent several key mujaheddin leaders, also intends to field a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections. They stress that the National Front is purely a political organization, not a military one. It is stacked with Northern Alliance commanders, Sunnis and Shias as well as Hazaras from the north, west, and east. There are only a few Pashtuns. The king's grandson is a member, despite Karzai's alleged entreaties not to join the group. The royal household supports the NF's platform of creating a parliamentary system of government. NF leader Rabbani has reportedly received money from Iran to establish the group to pose a direct threat to Karzai's power. Political circles are abuzz about whether this alliance will be able to bring about significant changes to the current system of governance. END SUMMARY. -------------- "Front" Aims To Reform GOA Structure -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 14, parliamentarian Burnhanuddin Rabbani's political advisor Mr. Chakeri and parliamentarian (and jihadi leader) Fazal Karim Aimaq from Kunduz province spoke to Poloff at length about the National Front, a political group headed by Rabbani whose creation is expected to be announced shortly after the Islamic new year on March 21. (Note: Aimaq is a mujaheddin leader. He was mayor of Kabul for several months in 2002, and was a member of both the Constitutional and the Presidential jirgas. Chakeri was the logistical organizer for the February 23 rally in favor of the Amnesty bill which drew approximately 25,000 people to the Kabul sports stadium. End Note.). Chakeri explained that several jihadi commanders, concerned about worsening security across the country and the President's perceived weakness, decided to form a coalition with two explicit goals: changing the system of government to a parliamentary model and electing governors. Chakeri said the NF has already created its "manifesto," which outlines these goals and its over-arching goal of establishing peace "since the GOA has been unable to do so." Chakeri stressed that the NF is purely a political organization, not a military one. MP Aimaq stated that an important third goal includes ensuring that the international military presence is seen as a legitimate presence by all sectors of society across the country. According to Chakeri, the NF will also field a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections. ¶3. (C) Aimaq opined that "people will say that warlords are coming together to form a coalition to gain control. They will say the group is based on ethnicity, but this is false." He explained that the NF wants to provide a "check and balance" to the current power structure and intends to restore collaboration in political life by reducing the power of certain individuals who currently wield too much power (Note: Aimaq was likely referring to President Karzai and his advisors. End Note.). -------------- Northern Alliance Jihadis Comprise "Front" -------------- ¶4. (C) Chakeri explained that the NF's leadership is divided into a leadership council (members yet to be determined) and an executive council, which includes: -MP Rabbani (former President who is a Tajik Sunni from Badakhshan) -Vice President Massoud (a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir) -Vice President Khalili (a Hazara Shia leader from Bamyan) -Marshal Fahim (former Minister of Defense and Vice President KABUL 00000919 002 OF 004 who is a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir) -Water and Power Minister Ismail Khan (a Tajik Sunni commander in the jihad in charge of the west from Herat) -MP Nadiri (a Hazara from Baghlan who is the leader of the Ismaili sect of Shias) -Lower House Speaker Qanooni (a Tajik Sunni jihadi from Panjshir) -General Dostum (an Uzbek Sunni former communist from Jowzjan province who is Chief of the Armed Forces and who has allied with both Shia and Sunni factions several times) -MP Gulabzoy (a former communist Pashtun Sunni from Khost) -MP Olumi (a former communist Pashtun Sunni and Chairman of the Defense Committee from Kandahar) -MP Aimaq (a Tajik Sunni jihadi leader from Kunduz) -MP Kazimi (an Tajik Shia Iran supporter from Parwan who was former Ministry of Commerce and previously a very senior figure in Islamic Revolutionary Movement- a Shia movement based in Pakistan) -MP Akbari (a Hazara Shia Iran sympathizer from Bamyan) -MP Farahi (a former communist Pashtun Sunni from Farah) -MP Haji Hazrat Ali (a Pashai Sunni from Nangarhar) -judge Wakat (a Pashtun Sunni from Nangarhar with ties to Hezb-Islami led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyer) MP Registani (a Tajik Sunni from Panjshir who was a senior advisor to Massoud) -3-4 women who have not yet been selected. ¶5. (C) In a March 15 meeting, parliamentarian Salih Mohammad Registani from Panjshir province explained that Rabbani will be the interim head of the NF for approximately six months, then leaders from other coalition parties will take over the leadership in rotating turns. Registani expressed concern that this rotating leadership may create instability within the NF, but nonetheless added that the NF has a "real chance at a sustained existence." Registani added that discussions regarding the formation of the NF have been underway for the past six months, and there are approximately 25 goals in total which have been discussed among the group's members, who represent more than a dozen political parties (estimates range from 15 to 24). Registani echoed MP Aimaq's comments that the NF will also focus on making sure the international military forces are viewed as a legitimate presence with a valid mandate. -------------- Two Prominent Leaders NOT Included... -------------- ¶6. (C) Notably, MPs Sayyaf (a Pashtun Sunni from Kabul) and Mohaqqeq (a Hazara Shia from Kabul) are not members of the NF. (Note: Sayyaf was the only anti-Taliban Pashtun leader who was allied with the Northern Alliance commanders prior to the fall of Kabul. End Note). According to Chakeri, Mohaqqeq was not invited. Sayyaf was invited, but stipulated several conditions before he would join. Chakeri said the NF's executive council was waiting to receive his conditions and then the council would decide whether to accept them. ¶7. (C) Some sources report that Sayyaf is hedging his bets and waiting to see if Hekmatyar comes back to Kabul, and if he does, Sayyaf may choose to ally with Hekmatyar in lieu of the NF. In a March 17 meeting with parliamentarian Ishaq Gailani, a Pashtun jihadi leader from Paktika province, Gailani told Poloff that parliamentarians Sayyaf and Mohaqqeq are looking to form their own alliance in opposition to the NF, and Gailani thinks they may receive financial support from the GOA to do so. Sayyaf and Mohaqqeq have formed alliances in Parliament previously in an attempt to get one or the other elected leadership positions in the Lower House. Their latest alliance consisted of a failed attempt to get Mohaqqeq elected Second Deputy Speaker in January. Reportedly, Mohaqqeq, considered a leader among the Hazaras, has fallen out of favor with them due to his links with Sayyaf. -------------- KABUL 00000919 003 OF 004 King's Grandson Joins the Front -------------- ¶8. (C) King Zahir Shah's grandson, Mustafa Zahir Shah, is also a member of the NF. According to Chakeri, Karzai spoke to Marshal Fahim and Mustafa last week about the NF and warned Marshal Fahim against creating the NF. He tried to entice Mustafa not to join by offering to make Mustafa his presidential protege. Fahim reportedly replied that it was the NF's constitutional right to form a group and Mustafa told Karzai that if the President would not tolerate his membership in the NF, he would rather leave the country and wait for Karzai's term to end rather than be Karzai's presidential protege. (Note: Some sources report that the King's grandson was invited to join the NF to lend "western legitimacy" to the group since he grew up in western Europe. End Note.) Chakeri added that Mustafa consulted with his family members before joing the NF's executive board, including Sardar Wali (the king's son-in-law) and Nader (the king's grandson). Nader has recently begun attending NF meetings with Mustafa. -------------- Fatwa Way Forward Against Taliban? -------------- ¶9. (C) Chakeri asserted that Karzai cannot understand that making war against the Taliban is not the way to eliminate them. He said that the way forward is to foment national unity against the Taliban and to do this, 2,000-3,000 religious scholars from across the Islamic world should be invited to Afghanistan to issue a joint fatwa that the war the Taliban is fighting is un-Islamic. This, he added, would help bring the country together to stand against the Taliban, and it would legitimize the coalition's efforts to fight against them. He added that several prominent religious scholars have already signaled their willingness to come and engage in the fatwa process. -------------- Iran Allegedly Financing "Front" -------------- ¶10. (C) In the March 17 meeting, MP Gailani told Poloff that Rabbani had received large amounts of money from Iran to establish the NF to pose a direct threat to Karzai's power. According to Gailani, Iran's overarching goal is to destabilize Karzai and bring Shias into power in the executive branch. Funding the NF is one of the planks in its strategy. (Note: Gailani added that, in addition to supporting the NF financially, Iran is also gaining influence with a targeted campaign of buying land and housing with money from the Imam Khomeini Foundation at two to three times the commercial value in Ghazni, Herat, Bamyan, Uruzgan, Ghor, and Kabul provinces. Gailani explained that Iran's intention is to create conditions in provinces where the majority of land and property holders are Shia. Should the opportunity arise, Shias could then rise up in opposition to the central government and re-establish their reign over the region formerly called "Hazarajat" in the central and central-western area of the country, also referred to as Hazarastan. The land purchases, Gailani explained, are another plank in Iran's efforts to increase its influence in Afghanistan. End Note.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) The NF appears to be a direct attempt at a referendum on Karzai's performance. It is moving boldly forward in its effort to limit Presidential powers considerably by pushing for a parliamentary model of governance (which, according to Article 111 of the constitution, would require a Loya Jirga to make the change) and siphoning off presidential power in the provinces by making the governor an elected (vice Presidentially-appointed) position. Its leadership is stacked with commanders of the Northern Alliance who are KABUL 00000919 004 OF 004 anxious to exert their power in the executive branch of government, as well as several Shias, who may be agitating for a Shia leader, with general financial backing from Iran. The NF's membership is varied, with jihad leaders, former communists, Shias, Sunnis, Tajiks, Hazaras, and representation from the North, West, and East. There are only a few Pashtuns, one of whom is from the south. The royal household's support of the NF's goal of switching to a parliamentary system of government calls into question the royal family's support of Karzai's leadership. Political circles are abuzz about whether this alliance will be able to bring about such massive changes to the existing system of government. While the NF may be a potential threat to Karzai's power, its creation marks progress in that the jihadis are attempting to bring down Karzai via the political process rather than violence, which likely would have been a very real possibility not so long ago. END COMMENT. NEUMANN