POLLS SHOW AFGHANS OPTIMISTIC, CONCERNED ABOUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003842 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR JWOOD OSD FOR SHIVERS CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID KDEM PGOV AF SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW AFGHANS OPTIMISTIC, CONCERNED ABOUT SAFETY AND ECONOMY KABUL 00003842 001.2 OF 003 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Three polls released this fall suggest, contrary to many international press reports, that Afghans continue to feel that their country is headed in the right direction, with little change in attitudes from a year ago. The most pronounced difference over last year is a rise in perceptions of insecurity, more due to lawlessness and crime than terrorism and insurgents. These latter concerns remain paramount in the south. Nationally and especially at the local level, Afghans stress the importance of development, particularly electricity, employment, water, education, and roads. Despite concern with corruption, the Afghan government gets relatively high marks -- especially for health and education. The polls collectively suggest a realistic leveling-off of expectations for the future, a durable desire for improved economic opportunity, and a renewed concern with security and public safety following a summer of increased crime and terrorist attacks designed to instill fear in the population. The poll results suggest that daily international media coverage of Afghanistan paints a more negative picture than that held by the Afghans themselves. End Summary. Optimism, But Concern with Security and Economy -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) Three national polls released in fall 2007 show increasing concerns with security relative to previous years, but stable hopes for the future. The polls -- conducted by the Asia Foundation (TAF),Environics, and MRA -- cover all 34 provinces and are based on results gathered in summer 2007, a period which saw a rise in insurgent violence, particularly in the south and east. ¶3. (SBU) The Asia Foundation's (TAF) "Afghanistan in 2007: A Survey of the Afghan People," funded by USAID, is the largest comprehensive opinion poll ever conducted in Afghanistan with a sample of 6,232 taken in June 2007. The TAF poll concludes that "the mood of the country continues to be optimistic" with 42 percent of Afghans believing that their country is moving in the right direction and 24 percent in the wrong direction (statistically the same as the 44 percent of positive respondents in 2006). Reconstruction was cited as the single largest reason for this optimism (39 percent), followed by good security (34 percent). Those who think the country is not moving in the right direction overwhelmingly cited insecurity (48 percent) followed by different aspects of weaknesses in governance and the economy. ¶4. (SBU) Environics' "2007 Survey of Afghans," the first national poll commissioned by the Government of Canada, sampled 1,578 Afghans from September 17-24, with a particular focus on Kandahar. Similar to the TAF results, the Environics poll showed that 51 percent of Afghans believe their country is going in the right direction, with 28 percent saying it is headed in the wrong direction. The optimists cite security, reconstruction, disarmament, and schools for girls, while the pessimists cite lack of security and safety, and a poor economy. The Environics poll suggests that 60 percent of Afghans feel personally better off today than in 2002, but they are somewhat less apt to believe they are better off than they were a year ago (36 percent). Over two out of three Afghans feel that foreign countries are doing a good job of fighting the Taliban (64 percent positive, 17 percent negative),providing reconstruction assistance (65 percent positive, 15 percent negative),and training the army and police (75 percent positive, 9 percent negative). ¶5. (SBU) These results are largely consistent with MRA's fifth "Afghan National Development Poll" commissioned by Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A), which sampled 5,310 nation-wide households in July 2007. The poll shows that there has been a gradual downward trend for optimism after a sharp drop following the parliamentary KABUL 00003842 002 OF 003 elections in 2005, leveling off at around 50 percent. Security: Increasing Concern with Public Safety -------------- --- ¶6. (SBU) The three polls suggest that worries about criminality and other public safety issues increased across the country, with insurgent-related security a top concern in the south and east. The TAF poll showed that 46 percent of Afghans think that security is the biggest problem facing the country (up from 27 percent last year),followed by 29 percent for unemployment, reversing the order of these concerns from last year. Two out of three Afghans rated the security situation in their area as good, and one out of three as bad, including a majority in the south. But about 42 percent felt the country is headed in the right direction, a finding statistically consistent with last year's results. Those who answered that the country is not headed in the right direction blamed insecurity most. Respondents identifying the Taliban or warlords as the biggest problem facing the country are down from 32 percent last year to 17 percent this year, suggesting that the perception of reduced security may be due to lawlessness and crime. The MRA poll suggests that a majority of sources of insecurity are not due directly to the insurgency and that they vary by region, with criminality rising in the north, narcotics trafficking prominent in the west, and the Taliban and Pakistan dominant concerns in the south and east. ¶7. (SBU) Afghans show high levels of confidence in their national security forces, especially the army. They welcome the Coalition Forces, but more for their contribution to development than to security. Both the TAF and Environics samples yielded high marks to the Afghan Security Forces, with 80 percent of respondents registering confidence in the army (90 percent TAF, 84 percent Environics),and over 75 percent indicating confidence in the police (80 percent TAF, 76 percent Environics). The MRA poll shows that large majorities of Afghans see the police as primarily responsible for bringing security (84 percent in Kabul, 54 percent in the north, and 66 percent in the west). These figures for police drop to less than a quarter of respondents in the south and less than 40 percent in the east, where local shuras are credited with bringing security by about a quarter of respondents (29 percent in the south and 22 percent in the east),more than for the army or foreign forces. The Environics poll showed that Afghans welcome the contribution of Coalition Forces, with 60 percent describing the presence of foreigners as good, 16 percent bad, and 22 percent equally good and bad. ¶8. (SBU) Few Afghans support the insurgents or their methods, but most Afghans support negotiations to bring about peace. The Environics poll shows support for the Taliban at 14 percent, and 71 percent responded that suicide bombings are never justified. However, 74 percent support negotiations with the Taliban to end the fighting. Development: A High Local Priority -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Following insecurity, which increased as a source of concern in all polls, the TAF poll identified unemployment, a poor economy, and corruption as the most difficult issues facing Afghanistan. Economic development remained the biggest concern at the local level, with respondents identifying electricity, unemployment, water, education, and roads (each at 10-15 percent),followed by security at 9 percent. Security remained the dominant concern in the south. ¶10. (SBU) According to the TAF poll, about half of Afghans think that their families are more prosperous today than under the Taliban (49 percent, compared to 54 percent in 2006),and just over a quarter feel they are less prosperous (28 percent, statistically the same as last year's 26 percent). Pashtuns were twice as likely as Tajiks to describe themselves as less prosperous today than under the KABUL 00003842 003 OF 003 Taliban (20 percent for Pashtuns, 10 percent for Tajiks). About 40 percent of respondents of all ethnicities in the south described themselves as less prosperous today than under the Taliban. Compared to two years ago, over half of respondents said access to schools has improved (51 percent), and just under half said the health situation of their family has improved (43 percent). Governance: Confidence in Government, But Corrupt -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Afghans indicated a high degree of confidence in the national government's performance in key areas, with 80 percent of the TAF sample indicating that the government is doing a very good or somewhat good job, particularly on education and health. Respondents felt the government is delivering a sub-par performance on employment, economic revival, and corruption. The Environics poll showed similarly high approval ratings, with 71 percent very or somewhat positive in their opinion of the Karzai government, versus 20 percent who are negative. The MRA poll shows that nearly two out of three Afghans believe that their government will be able to bring security, jobs, and reconstruction in the next few years, with a majority in all regions. The TAF poll showed the highest level of confidence in the Afghan National Security Forces, followed by electronic media, tribal and provincial councils, international NGOs, and Community Development Councils (CDCs). Afghans prefer traditional justice mechanisms to the formal system, and distrust political parties and militias; fewer than half of respondents expressed confidence in these institutions. ¶12. (SBU) While the government is perceived to be effective, Afghans also consider it corrupt. The TAF sample shows that 57 percent of Afghans believe that national corruption has worsened in the past year. Perception of the prevalence of corruption was higher at the the national level (74 percent of respondents) than at the provincial (60 percent) or local levels (48 percent),which may be explained in part by the feeling among Afghans that the central government is distant from their daily lives and the difficulty they have in linking large foreign aid flows to specific local benefits. ¶13. (SBU) Afghans oppose poppy production, but they do not blame it for the problems Afghanistan is facing. A large majority of Afghans felt cultivation of opium poppies was wrong (80 percent),half of those saying their opposition was based on religious concerns. Less than 10 percent linked poppies to terrorism, insecurity, or corruption. Durable Optimism, Consistent Priorities -------------- ¶14. (SBU) These polls collectively suggest a leveling-off of expectations consistent with a country struggling with poverty and insecurity six years after the euphoria that accompanied the fall of the Taliban. Afghans respond like a poor country with high expectations for the future, rather than a downtrodden country at war, except in the south where the insurgency remains the dominant concern. But they are also the views of the population at large, not the politically aware or active elite. WOOD