NEW GOVERNANCE CZAR POPAL LAUNCHES AMBITIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003714

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC FOR JWOOD
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CJTF-82 AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV MARR EAID KDEM AF
SUBJECT: NEW GOVERNANCE CZAR POPAL LAUNCHES AMBITIOUS
STRATEGY, INCLUDING SECURITY ROLE

REF: KABUL 3054

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Jelani Popal's three-year strategic plan for his new
Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) aims to
strengthen sub-national governance by holding appointed
representative District Councils accountable for local
governance, development, poppy-eradication, and security. To
reinforce the role of district officials in security
functions, the plan includes a "Communities Self-Defense
Program," which would vest in Popal's directorate
responsibility for coordinating civil and military lines of
operation at the local level. District officials would be
authorized to up to 300 "community defense volunteers."
Popal claims President Karzai's full support promised an
elaboration of his strategy within three months. He has
identified Wardak Province as the target for his first
Self-Defense Force trials. CSTC-A is talking to Popal to
identify areas of complementarity between the Focused
District Development concept and IDLG's proposed Community
Self-Defense Program (septel). Donors who focus on
governance issues are wary of the security elements of
Popal's plan, and some in the Afghan government are likely to
see his initiative as an infringement on their turf. The
Ambassador has assured Popal of U.S. support and encouraged
him to prioritize his efforts in order to maximize results
over the next 24 months. END SUMMARY.

POPAL LAUNCHES LOCAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
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2. (SBU) On October 4, Jelani Popal presented to senior
Afghan officials and foreign diplomats a three-year strategic
plan at the official launch of his new Independent
Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG). The IDLG's strategic
framework aims to strengthen sub-national institutions,
improve service delivery, eliminate discrimination against
women, reduce corruption, and attack poppy production. The
plan also features a "Communities Self-Defense Program,"
which would vest in Popal's directorate responsibility for
coordinating civil and military lines of operation in each
province.

DISTRICT COUNCILS AND COMMUNITY SELF-DEFENSE VOLUNTEERS
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3. (SBU) Popal's proposal calls for the civil authority in
each district being embodied in appointed District Councils,
comprised of up to 60 traditional maliks and other local
leaders identified by the IDLG in consultation with local
NGOs and the Tribal Liaison Office. These appointed District
Councils will, in the short term, play the role of the
elected District and Village Councils foreseen in the
Constitution. Popal has set 2010 as a goal to have the
legislation in place for District Council elections, but he
has said that a decision as to when they will actually take
place will depend on conditions on the ground.


4. (SBU) The District Councils would oversee the execution
of local development projects and develop district poppy
eradication plans. Each District Council member would also
be responsible for recruiting five (for a total of up to 300
per district) "Community Defense Volunteers," local Afghans
from the district "who would wear police uniforms and report
to the district chief of police." The District Councils
would each sign a memorandum of understanding with the IDLG
describing their responsibility for the performance of the
Community Defense Volunteers and implementation of an agreed
poppy-eradication plan. In return for good performance, the
Afghan government would make available modest salaries for
the Community Defense Volunteers and alternative income and
development packages for poppy-growing and
insurgent-afflicted districts. The goal is to regenerate
confidence in the local government by demonstrating that it

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is prepared to meet citizens' need for security and services.


5. (SBU) Popal also underlined the importance of better
coordination between expanded civil governance activities and
on-going military counter-insurgency operations. He proposed
establishing a Task Force on Governance and a Task Force on
Security in each province. The latter would be responsible
for coordination between civil authorities, such as the
governors and line ministry representatives, and security
authorities, including the Afghan National Army, Afghan
National Police, and the National Directorate for Security.
Popal plans to focus the ILDG's initial efforts on "priority
provinces" in the south and southeast, specifically Wardak,
Ghazni, Uruzgan, Zabul, Kandahar, Helmand, Farah, and Logar.
He told us on October 10 that he looked forward to
coordinating his efforts with CSTC-A's Focused District
Development (FDD) plan, which identifies vulnerable districts
for special police train-and-equip and rule of law
investments (septel).

KARZAI SUPPORT; DONOR QUESTIONS
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6. (SBU) Popal told POLoff at the October 4 presentation that
he had presented his plan earlier the same day to President
Karzai, who gave his full support, including for the security
component. Foreign diplomats pledged support for the plan at
the IDLG inauguration and again at the October 11 Policy
Action Group (PAG) meeting -- of which Popal is now a full
participant. They nevertheless had concerns about the scope
of the plan and expressed concern over the political and
administrative difficulties Popal would face as he moved to
implement the plan. Development/governance-focused donors
were wary of Popal's security ambitions and flagged they
might not be able to provide resources for the self-defense
element of the plan. They described his plan's security
facet as "food for thought." Popal promised a full
elaboration of his strategy within three months.

AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES SUPPORT; URGES POPAL TO PRIORITIZE
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7. (SBU) The Ambassador used his meeting with Popal on
October 18 to underline U.S. support for the IDLG and Popal's
efforts. The Ambassador welcomed the proposal as consistent
with Karzai's vision of a partnership between state and local
entities. He applauded the fact that the plan is to be
anchored at the district level and will explicitly link
security and development. This is fundamental both to giving
people a stake in both and increasing the chances of success.
The key to drawing the communities into the process will be
ensuring that the program reflects the local leadership as it
really exists. Success will bring great payoffs, but the
challenges are significant, and failure will just result in a
new round of unmet expectations. The Ambassador underlined
the need to prioritize, focus efforts and resources, and
calibrate implementation to maximize success. The government
must demonstrate over the next 24 months that it can deliver.
Progress on the security front is essential.


8. (SBU) Popal said he agreed with the need to prioritize,
not just programmatically, but also geographically.
Highlighting that, in his view the problem was not so much a
strong enemy as weak state institutions, he said he had
already identified provinces and districts where there was
both need and potential to succeed. He reported he already
had assessment teams working in Wardak Province, adding he
planned to set up the Security Task Force and the Governance
Task Force shortly. The first targets would be districts
where the community wanted to resist the Taliban but where
the government presence, particularly in terms of security,
does not currently constitute a critical mass. He reiterated
that his 18-month goal is to have programs in place in six
provinces. Popal told the Ambassador he recognized the
challenge of creating local self-defense forces that avoid
the trap of becoming local militia. The key, he said, will
be strong links to and accountability through the District
Chief of Police. Popal underlined that he is committed to

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coordinating his initiative with CSTC-A's Focused District
Development plan. He will work closely with CSTC-A and is
counting on Regional and Provincial Security Coordination
Centers (RSCCs and PSCCs) playing an increasing role in
integrating ANA, ANP and NDS operations, particularly in the
South and East. This will provide a critical partner for
Popal's efforts. The guiding principle is ensuring those
responsible for local governance and security have the
authority and resources to match their responsibilities.

IMPLEMENTATION WILL REQUIRE PLAYING POLITICS
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9. (SBU) Moving the local government function from the
Ministry of Interior to an Office in the Palace signaled the
importance President Karzai places on the issue, and he
personally chose Popal to lead the effort. Popal appreciates
this does not guarantee success. He is keenly aware of the
need not just for a plan and resources, but for political
support within the government. Several senior Afghan
government officials -- mostly Popal's personal friends and
political allies -- were assembled when he rolled out his
proposal. They included Finance Minister Ahady, who is Chair
(Popal is Deputy Chair) of the Afghan Millat party. NDS
Chief Saleh, whose father worked with Popal at a construction
company 20 years ago, was also present. Others included MP
Mir Wis Yasini, who is also linked to Afghan Millat, and
representatives of the Ministry of Education, who are close
to Popal's deputy in the Palace and were instrumental in
shaping Popal's plans. Palace insider Farook Wardak was also
present, but he was clearly uncomfortable throughout the
presentation and awkwardly asked to leave early.


10. (C) Popal's deputy for policy, Barna Karimi, highlighted
that Farook Wardak had hoped to have a more central role in
shaping and staffing the IDLG. Karimi observed that, while
Wardak has recently lost influence with Karzai (reportedly in
part due to having pressed for ForMin Spanta's dismissal),he
retains more than enough influence to complicate-to-death
initiatives he does not support. According to Karimi, Popal,
who would some day like to lead Afghan Millat Party, also
appreciates the need to maintain the goodwill of Finance
Minister Ahady, who controls the resources Popal will need to
succeed.

COMMENT
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11. (C) Popal's appointement and the creation of the ILDG
are the necessary second step, following transfers of
responsibility for the governors from the Ministry of
Interior to the Palace, in the Embassy's effort to get better
local governance. Popal's ambitious agenda will undoubtedly
be adjusted and reduced as he begins to run afoul of
entrenched interests, both legitimate and corrupt. Our goal
will be to support him and the core functions of his office,
especially regarding the appointment of good governors and
the replacement of bad ones.

WOOD