PRT QALAT: SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON SECURITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 KABUL 000360 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO GASTRIGHT, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR HARRIMAN OSD FOR KIMMITT CENTCOM FOR CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD RELEASABLE TO NATO/ISAF/AUS/NZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID ECON MASS SOCI AF SUBJECT: PRT QALAT: SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON SECURITY, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SITUATION IN ZABUL Classified By: PolCounselor SRosenberry for Reasons 1.4 (B) AND (D) This is the first of a series of cables from the PRTs across Afghanistan, providing a semi-annual snapshot report on the security, political, economic and social conditions in the provinces in which they are located. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The political situation in Zabul is fairly stable, with a good governor, Delbar Jan Arman, who has served for almost two years. His efforts are undermined by a weak administration both in the capital and in the districts, and his own unwillingness to empower and build the capacity of those supporting him. The democratically elected leaders of the province (Provincial Council members and Member of Parliament) are rarely heard from. The judicial system is capable and is moving forward to balance the formal and informal systems in operation. Security remains an issue in the province, with continued small scale violence, directed usually towards ISAF, but often only with just collateral damage to locals. The Afghan National Security Forces are weak and not popular with the locals. Reconstruction and development is a success in Zabul, with new buildings, roads, and electrification being tangible improvements the locals can see and understand. Education suffers from a lack of qualified teachers and the security situation in the province. Health care is improving with the new provincial hospital. Progress is being made in the field of women,s issues as they learn skills that will enable them to be more active. Zabul has potential ) it just needs some attention, resources and stability to keep it on the path to success. End summary. -------------- Political Situation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Governor ) Governor Arman is, by most accounts, a strong governor. He is educated, has the age and experience to command respect from the locals and speaks Dari, Pashto and English. Originally from Khost, he is pro-Western and is supportive of the PRT, working together to implement projects. His flaw is that he is unable, or unwilling, to �A;delegate authority or invest in a support system. There is no deputy governor for Zabul, and the Governor has been unable to build a credible administration that functions normally, especially in his absence. Though he claims to, Governor Arman does not empower his line ministry directors to do their jobs effectively, often requiring his approval before they move forward on projects or initiatives. ¶3. (SBU) Governor Arman is criticized by citizens of Zabul for corruption and not assisting them; whether it is true or not is immaterial as perception is reality for the locals. PRTOff is working with Arman to address the two biggest leadership obstacles to his governorship ) building a credible administration and transparency in his work. By delegating tasks to his district leaders and line ministry directors, Arman can focus more on the big picture while building the capacity of his subordinates. As the Governor travels to the districts and talks to citizens and explains what he is doing to help them and the province as a whole, especially sharing his vision for using provincial resources, it will increase his standing and help him build a reputation as a leader. ¶4. (U) District leaders ) There is a Governor appointed leader in each district. Arman has told PRTOff and the locals themselves he wants to consult with the tribal elders in each district to ensure the leader is someone they will support and work with. Though in theory this should make for stronger district leaders, in fact district leaders are not perceived as working effectively for the people. Leaders in the districts bordering Highway One, which leads directly to Qalat, thus facilitating access to influence and resources, KABUL 00000360 002 OF 006 are perceived to be the most active and effective. ¶5. (SBU) Line ministry directors ) The local directors of each ministry are, almost across the board, extremely weak. Zabul is not a popular place to work, and there are very few, if any, directors who are actually from Zabul province. That means most are living in Zabul without their families and many lack a vested interest in the progress of the province. Many of the directors have been paired with a PRT mentor who has experience in their particular career field and tries to work with them on specific issues in order to further build capacity. The fact that Governor Arman does not empower the directors to take action undermines this mentoring effort and makes them even less committed to the province. ¶6. (U) Provincial Council (PC)/Members of Parliament ) While these are the only two democratically elected groups, they are rarely heard from or seen in the province. Most locals, especially outside of Qalat, do nQ know who represents them in Kabul, and have no idea what, if anything, they are doing to support progress in Zabul. PC members take part in the Provincial Development Council, but are not seen otherwise actively engaging in the political life of Zabul. PRTOffs are working with PC members to mentor them and encourage them to take a more active role in the administration of the province. A central theme is to remind them they were elected by their peers, which means they are not only empowered, but have the responsibility, to act on behalf of their constituents. ¶7. (U) Judicial system: The judicial system in Zabul is fledgling, but working. The chief judge, prosecutors, police and the prison have a good working relationship, though the chief judge has the most clout in the judicial context. The judges hear approximately 35 cases a week, from all sectors, including criminal, civil and family law. According to the chief judge, just over 60 cases from Zabul have been appealed to the Supreme Court in the last year. It is not known what percentage of cases the formal judicial system hears versus citizens using the informal or tribal system to settle their complaints. The strong tribal affiliations and customs in the area makes it likely, however that many disputes are still being settled informally. The chief judge is strong and is working to mesh and balance the formal and informal systems to effectively bring a known and supported understanding of the rule of law to Zabul province. ¶8. (U) Comment on Governance: The administration of Zabul is functioning, but it has limited capacity. Capable officials should be given incentives to come to Zabul and work, away from their homes and families, in order to sustain a credible and effective government presence in Zabul. Directors, district leaders, PC members and even the Members of Parliament need to continually be encouraged to be proactive in their work for the province, by talking to and working with the people, in order to understand the issues of the broader population, and to adequately address them in their respective fields. Having a capable and transparent administration will most effectively ensure that progress on other issues, such as security, the economy and development, will continue and expand. End comment. -------------- Security Situation -------------- ¶9. (U) Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) ) Both the ANA and the ANP suffer from a lack of credibility in Zabul province. The ANA seem to have less interaction with the people on an everyday basis and, therefore, have a slightly better reputation. They are capable, but with the planned readiness cycle for the kandaks and the drop in numbers, they have contracted from the outer districts in Zabul towards the central highway region, diluting their presence and KABUL 00000360 003 OF 006 effectiveness in the larger province. (CSTC-A Comment: RC-South could benefit from much stronger partnership ties between ANA and ISAF units, which would strenghten the credibility of the ANA. End CSTC-A Comment.) ¶10. (C) The ANP are widely seen as corrupt. There are stories every day about bribes, corruption, and use of hashish by police on duty. In Zabul, reprotedly less than five percent of the ANP on the MoI payrolls have been trained at the Regional Training Center in Kandahar, and there is a lack of professionalism and commitment amongst the ranks. The ANAP program in Zabul has graduated about 350 students and this seems to be seen as a way forward in the province, as citizens constantly express their desire to have trustworthy local men from their villages trained, armed and empowered to protect their communities. (CSTC-A Comment: CFC-A and CSTC-A submitted a new Request for Forces on January 23 for approximately 1900 personnel to train the ANP across Afghanistan. End CSTC-A Comment) ¶11. (C) Coalition forces ) Security remains an issue in Zabul, as it does in the entire southern region. There have been two suicide bombers in the past two months in downtown Qalat, and Coalition forces traveling to outlying districts continue to hit IEDs and get involved in firefights with the enemy. Since the transfer of the southern region to NATO/ISAF control, there are fewer combat forces in Zabul province, and those forces have considerably less capability, presence and maneuverability. ISAF is now playing a reactive rather than proactive role in the security arena. Many locals feel that between the corruption, ineffectiveness and contraction of the ANSF and the shortage of Coalition force/ISAF presence, security ) personal and community-wide ) remains tenuous at best. (CSTC-A Comment: ISAF is planning to soon place an U.S. infantry battalion in RC-Sourth, with the expectation it will achieve an operational capacity by the end of February. This will strengthen COMISAF's ability to respond where necessary, but the basic problem remains that, despite the best efforts of the RC-South commander, his composite headquarters is neither robust or agile enough to meet the demands of the counterinsurgency fight occurring in the region. End CSTC-A Comment) ¶12. (SBU) Comment on Security: One of the biggest issues for the ANSF is pay. The small salary combined with the danger inherent with the job does not tend to attract the best and brightest to the field. Regular and higher salaries that are paid on time would go a long ways towards attracting more people, and would help mitigate the &need8 to fleece the local population as a way to support their own families. (Note: The Embassy is addressing this issue (Septel).) More Broadly, security is inextricably linked to governance issues and the economic situation and will remain an issue in Zabul for the foreseeable future. The view shared by most internationals in Zabul is that only approximately 20 percent of the fighters typically labeled Taliban are actually ideologically aligned with the group and are hardened fighters. The other 80 percent are disillusioned citizens who choose to side with the Taliban because they are providing an income or services greater than those provided by the government or because they believe they have been wronged by the government. As governance becomes more responsive and the economy improves, the security situation will also improve. End comment. -------------- Economic Situation -------------- ¶13. (U) Reconstruction and Development ) The most telling picture of reconstruction and development progress in Zabul is that of New Qalat City. There are nine new buildings in this area, funded by diverse sources. The UAE built the KABUL 00000360 004 OF 006 Zabul Provincial Hospital; the Afghanistan Stability Project funded the new Governor,s office; USAID funded the new branch of the Afghanistan Central Bank (DAB),a new Justice Center, and the Women,s Resource Center; and U.S. military CERP (Commanders Emergency Response Program) dollars paid for the Revenue Center and the Communications Building. Right alongside these buildings are new bazaar stalls and residences, built solely by local Afghans, eager to be a part of the new center of Qalat. While the building of the structures is an important step, two major problems exist. New Qalat City suffers from a lack of city planning, and roads, drainage and power right of ways are inadequate. ¶14. (U) The provincial government is aware of the need to address these problems, and, with support from the international community, they are solvable. In the meantime, other than the Central Bank branch and the hospital, buildings are currently unoccupied, with the future inhabitants using the lack of roads, access and walls as an excuse. Once a wall is built around the Governor,s Office and the Justice Center, Governor Arman and the Chief Judge have pledged to move into those buildings, and the Women,s Resource Center should be occupied in the next month. With these key players working in the new area, it is likely that the other line ministries will follow and New Qalat City will begin to take on the qualities of a real provincial center. ¶15. (U) Other key projects in Zabul province are the electrification of Qalat, and the building of roads. A $7 million program funded by USAID, the electrification project is ongoing and, when completed in April 2007, will provide approximately 4,300 connections to the people of Qalat. Highway One is currently the only paved road in the province, but there is road construction taking place in many of the districts. These roads will connect major district centers in both the northern and southern portions of the province with Highway One, allowing for easier access to provincial leaders and services. These are high visibility projects that will have an immediate impact on the province. Additionally, other smaller projects, such as district centers, bridges and wells are ongoing throughout the province and are important as they provide citizens with the sense that the government is paying attention to them and that lives are improving, even in the outlying districts. -------------- Cultural/Social Situation -------------- ¶16. (U) Education ) According to the Director of Education in Zabul, at the end of 2006, there were 172 schools in Zabul province, of which only 47 are open and active with the other 125 inactive for various reasons, chiefly lack of security and Taliban intimidation. If all the schools were open, Zabul would have approximately 50,000 current students, but with only 47 schools open, there are about 18,000 kids attending school. There are a total of five schools in the province that teach girls ) an all girls school in Qalat that teaches grades 1 ) 12 (but currently does not have students past the 9th grade); and four co-ed elementary schools that teach grades 1 ) 5, two of which are in Qalat, one in the Shamulzai district and one in the Tarnak wa Jaldak district. The Ministry of Education in Kabul has authorized 762 teachers for the province, but there were only 360 teachers working over the past year due to the number of schools not in operation. Teachers are paid, on average, 2500 Afghans per month ($50) in Zabul. There is no higher education in Zabul province, and it is rare that high school graduates continue their education elsewhere. ¶17. (U) Health care ) In Qalat, the UAE-funded hospital has greatly increased the capacity of Zabul province to care for the sick and wounded over the past year. Dedicated in March 2005, the hospital now employs 19 physicians and provides KABUL 00000360 005 OF 006 many services including obstetrics, general surgery, orthopedics, pediatrics and dentistry. The hospital treats an average of 300 inpatients a month and 150 outpatients a day. A Jordanian field hospital team with 150 members has just arrived in Qalat to partner with the hospital and will provide additional services for the population and training for the staff. With clinics in eight of the 11 districts of the province, all supported by Ibn Sina through EU funding, the goal of the provincial government is to have a clinic in every district. Not surprisingly, observations from village medical outreach programs undertaken by the PRT indicates that the well being of people is directly related to distance from the highway. An increasing number of the people of Zabul are beginning to travel to the hospital in Qalat to seek treatment for more serious illnesses and injuries. ¶18. (U) Women,s Issues ) In a deeply traditional and tribal society, women,s issues are not always on the mind of the locals, but with support from the international community, there is progress. The key players in women,s affairs are the Director of Women,s Affairs, the two female members of the Provincial Council, and the director of the girls, school in Qalat. The key center for women,s activities right now is the World Food Programme and USAID-supported Green Afghanistan Initiative (GAIN) center nursery. Approximately 85 ) 100 women receive basic agricultural training and cultivate plants, nuts and trees. After twenty-one days of work, they are paid, in kind, with basic foodstuffs such as wheat, vegetable oil, salt and beans. Since late last year, the center has also been offering literacy courses to women, and a visit by PRTOff found approximately 40 women sitting in a training room studying reading, writing and math. ¶19. (U) Completed in September 2006, USAID funded a brand new Women,s Resource Center (WRC) in New Qalat City, and the hope is this building will become the focal point for women,s activities in the province. After resisting for some time, it now appears the Director of Women,s Affairs is ready to open the building formally, move in and host a celebration of International Women,s Day on March 8. Hesitant to attend courses at the PRT-run trade school, women now have access to an extension course taught at a local woman,s home for rug weaving and embroidery. The PRT also just launched a woman,s health education course at the hospital, and the PRT hopes to install a computer room into the WRC where computer classes can be taught, all with the goal of helping women become more active members of their communities. ¶20. (U) Comment on Cultural/Social situation: A key to making progress on cultural and social issues in a province like Zabul is persuading the locals to take ownership of the process. If the GoA and the international community can work together to help locals understand the importance of these issues, how they can improve their lives, and then gain their active support for these initiatives, it would greatly improve the probability of real progress. Another shortfall is the inability to recruit educated and qualified teachers and health care providers due to the low pay and the undesirability of living in Zabul province. The perception of the security situation as unstable in Zabul, whether reality or not, is also a major obstacle to further progress on these issues. End comment. ¶21. (SBU) Final comment: Limited human capacity is another obstacle to progress in Zabul. The government is forced to import workers in almost every sector in Zabul, and this causes two problems. First, the outsiders don,t necessarily have a vested interest in the province and do not always take the time to get to know the local population and understand what their needs and wants are. Second, the locals do not necessarily buy into programs and initiatives being run by outsiders. When management is from outside, even when there KABUL 00000360 006 OF 006 are local people qualified to work on projects, they hesitate to do so. Another prerequisite to progress in Zabul is adequate and reliable support. The governor and line ministry directors must receive resources and support from the central government, otherwise they remain figureheads without real power. Finally, Zabul needs stability. In the past several months the head of NDS and the Provincial Chief of Police have both been transferred out of Zabul, and there are rumors that the Chief Judge will also be transferred. These are key positions in the province, especially when there is no deputy governor, and these gaps make it difficult for the governor to have continuity in relationships and programs in the province, which is vital to building confidence in and support for the government. Zabul has potential. It needs attention, assistance and support to move ahead. End comment. NEUMANN