USING THE BERLIN JCMB MEETINGS TO FLAG NEED FOR

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SUBJECT: USING THE BERLIN JCMB MEETINGS TO FLAG NEED FOR
EARLY ELECTION PREP

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The next presidential election is
scheduled to take place in 2009, followed by national
assembly elections in 2010. Given the significant steps that
must be taken before the next elections, it is imperative
that preparation begin immediately and have the support of
the international community. Key tasks include: establishing
a permanent Civil Voter Registry (CVR); passing an updated
Election Law; and organizing and conducting the actual
elections. UNAMA is working on a framework, timeline and
budget estimates for these preparations, but has not begun
consultations with the GOA, including through the JCMB.
Embassy and UNAMA agree that the goal should be a plan that
is as simple as possible, given Afghanistan's limited
bureaucratic capacity, and affordable, given the governments'
limited resources and the competing demands on international
donor support. One important step would be to combine the
presidential and parliamentary elections on one date. Post
believes that a new JCMB working group is the best place for
these issues to be addressed. UNAMA supports the idea of
using the JCMB Political Directors' meeting in Berlin to flag
the need to begin the preparation process and to suggest the
formation of a JCMB working group. Post recommends points to
be included in the U.S. delegation's remarks on the second
day of the Berlin meetings. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) The last election cycle in Afghanistan required
massive international involvement and financial support. The
cost to the international community came close to $300
million, of which the U.S. contributed $150 million. The
London Compact mandated greater GOA involvement in the
preparations for conduct of the next national elections,
currently secheduled for 2009 and 2010. It is critical that
the Political Directors' meeting in Berlin urge the GOA to
use the JCMB process to begin preparations for elections that
can be supported organizationally and financially Afghanistan
itself and by the donor community. There must be realistic
expectations regarding key elements of the plan.

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Civilian Voter Registry Decisions Needed
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3. (SBU) The London Compact identified the establishment of
a Civilian Voter Registry (CVR) as a key benchmark in
promoting Democracy, Justice and Human Rights in the country.
Election experts and UNAMA judge that a CVR will
significantly improve the integrity of the election process,
and a pilot project, overseen by the Afghan Independent
Commission and supported by the UN Democracy Fund and UNDP
core funds, is scheduled for completion in May 2007. Under
the current timeline, the national CVR project would have to
begin this summer in order to be completed by the end of

2008. Funding has not been established, and estimates range
from $50 million. The Ministry of Interior, which has weak
institutional capacity, is designated as the principal
implementing agency for the CVR, with help from the
Independent Election Commission. It is difficult to be
optimistic. While there has been some resistance to the idea
in the past, Deputy SRSG Chris Alexander has shared that
UNAMA is prepared to look at piggy-backing the national CVR
effort on the national census, which is also mandated in the
London Compact. This would keep costs down and may help
ensure quality. Donor clarity on expectations and an
acceptable budget for a CVR would help guide the GOA as it
makes decisions.

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New Election Law In the Works
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4. (U) A new election law is required to enshire the
electoral process established in the first elections. The
Independent Election Commission has prepared the draft law
following a long consultative process in which political
groups, civil society, partiamentarians, provincial
representatives and international stakeholders reviewed

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options. The draft law is now with the Legislative Office in
the Ministry of Justice. It has not yet been submitted to
the National Assembly, and there are several pieces of
legislation in front of it, including the budget, the
restructuring of government law, and the media law. It is a
comprehensive law which covers all elections. The prospects
for passage are good, but debates will last at least until
the spring and could become contentious. Some members of
parliament will favor the system which got them elected, but
there is also support for movement from a Single
Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) to a system which includes at
least some element of proportional representation.

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Expanded Role of the Afghan Election Commission
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5. (SBU) UNAMA has begun work on a draft framework,
timeline, and budget estimates for initiatives to address
these and other elements of the election preparation effort.
They have not submitted their proposal to the GOA for
consideration, but the plan does provide for a significant
and expanding role for the Independent Election Commission,
as mandated as a London Compact benchmark. This includes a
field presence in the provinces and will require significant
investment in capacity building and support for that
organization as well as the Ministry of Interior.

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Finding a Plan that Fits Afghanistan's Needs/Donors' Budgets
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6. (SBU) UNAMA understands the need to develop a workable
and affordable plan the GOA and international donors can
support. It has signaled openness to the possiblity of
changing the election schedule to put the presidential and
parliamentary elections on the same date to reduce financial
and bureaucratic costs -- an idea we should push. UNAMA
supports the idea of using the Berlin JCMB Political
Directors' meeting to flag the need to get the planning
process underway and to ask the JCMB to assume the lead in
sorting through the issues and mobilizing international
support.


7. (SBU) The reciprocal quality of the elections issues
makes it well suited for the JCMB. On one hand, donors need
to be pressed early for financial support without which
planning cannot proces and the next elections are unlikely.
On the other, the current schedule that spreads the next
national elections over two years would vastly increase the
cost and complexity. A change in the schedule will require
adjustments in the constitution, which only underlines the
need for early pressure to fix the problem.

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Points for Consideration for Berlin
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8. (SBU) Post recommends the following points as part of
the U.S. delgation's remarks on the second day of the JCMB
Political Directors' meeting in Berlin.

The 2004 Presidential Elections and the 2005 National
Assembly/Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan were
tremendous successes and critical milestones for Afghanistan.


Those elections required a massive Afghan and international
effort, which produced results far beyond expectations.

The next Afghan presidential elections are scheduled to take
place in March-April 2009. The next parliamentary elections
are due in 2010. Elections over two years vastly increase
the security issues. They will cost more than donors are
likely to pay and more than the Afghan Government can afford.
The two elections should be held together.

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There are major tasks that must be completed before the next
elections take place. These include: passage of the new
election law, the development of a civil voter registry; and
the organization of the elections themselves.

These challenges require the organizational and financial
support of donors as well as capacity-building within the
Independent Election Commission and other elements of the
Government.

We would like to ask the JCMB to consider the establishment
of an elections working group, supported by UNAMA and the
donor community at large, to oversee these preparations.
NEUMANN