USING THE BERLIN JCMB MEETINGS TO FLAG NEED FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000220 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR SA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A. CG CJTF-76 POLAD OSD FOR KIMMITT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID AF SUBJECT: USING THE BERLIN JCMB MEETINGS TO FLAG NEED FOR EARLY ELECTION PREP KABUL 00000220 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The next presidential election is scheduled to take place in 2009, followed by national assembly elections in 2010. Given the significant steps that must be taken before the next elections, it is imperative that preparation begin immediately and have the support of the international community. Key tasks include: establishing a permanent Civil Voter Registry (CVR); passing an updated Election Law; and organizing and conducting the actual elections. UNAMA is working on a framework, timeline and budget estimates for these preparations, but has not begun consultations with the GOA, including through the JCMB. Embassy and UNAMA agree that the goal should be a plan that is as simple as possible, given Afghanistan's limited bureaucratic capacity, and affordable, given the governments' limited resources and the competing demands on international donor support. One important step would be to combine the presidential and parliamentary elections on one date. Post believes that a new JCMB working group is the best place for these issues to be addressed. UNAMA supports the idea of using the JCMB Political Directors' meeting in Berlin to flag the need to begin the preparation process and to suggest the formation of a JCMB working group. Post recommends points to be included in the U.S. delegation's remarks on the second day of the Berlin meetings. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) The last election cycle in Afghanistan required massive international involvement and financial support. The cost to the international community came close to $300 million, of which the U.S. contributed $150 million. The London Compact mandated greater GOA involvement in the preparations for conduct of the next national elections, currently secheduled for 2009 and 2010. It is critical that the Political Directors' meeting in Berlin urge the GOA to use the JCMB process to begin preparations for elections that can be supported organizationally and financially Afghanistan itself and by the donor community. There must be realistic expectations regarding key elements of the plan. -------------- Civilian Voter Registry Decisions Needed -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The London Compact identified the establishment of a Civilian Voter Registry (CVR) as a key benchmark in promoting Democracy, Justice and Human Rights in the country. Election experts and UNAMA judge that a CVR will significantly improve the integrity of the election process, and a pilot project, overseen by the Afghan Independent Commission and supported by the UN Democracy Fund and UNDP core funds, is scheduled for completion in May 2007. Under the current timeline, the national CVR project would have to begin this summer in order to be completed by the end of ¶2008. Funding has not been established, and estimates range from $50 million. The Ministry of Interior, which has weak institutional capacity, is designated as the principal implementing agency for the CVR, with help from the Independent Election Commission. It is difficult to be optimistic. While there has been some resistance to the idea in the past, Deputy SRSG Chris Alexander has shared that UNAMA is prepared to look at piggy-backing the national CVR effort on the national census, which is also mandated in the London Compact. This would keep costs down and may help ensure quality. Donor clarity on expectations and an acceptable budget for a CVR would help guide the GOA as it makes decisions. -------------- New Election Law In the Works -------------- ¶4. (U) A new election law is required to enshire the electoral process established in the first elections. The Independent Election Commission has prepared the draft law following a long consultative process in which political groups, civil society, partiamentarians, provincial representatives and international stakeholders reviewed KABUL 00000220 002.2 OF 003 options. The draft law is now with the Legislative Office in the Ministry of Justice. It has not yet been submitted to the National Assembly, and there are several pieces of legislation in front of it, including the budget, the restructuring of government law, and the media law. It is a comprehensive law which covers all elections. The prospects for passage are good, but debates will last at least until the spring and could become contentious. Some members of parliament will favor the system which got them elected, but there is also support for movement from a Single Non-transferable Vote (SNTV) to a system which includes at least some element of proportional representation. -------------- -- Expanded Role of the Afghan Election Commission -------------- -- ¶5. (SBU) UNAMA has begun work on a draft framework, timeline, and budget estimates for initiatives to address these and other elements of the election preparation effort. They have not submitted their proposal to the GOA for consideration, but the plan does provide for a significant and expanding role for the Independent Election Commission, as mandated as a London Compact benchmark. This includes a field presence in the provinces and will require significant investment in capacity building and support for that organization as well as the Ministry of Interior. -------------- -------------- Finding a Plan that Fits Afghanistan's Needs/Donors' Budgets -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) UNAMA understands the need to develop a workable and affordable plan the GOA and international donors can support. It has signaled openness to the possiblity of changing the election schedule to put the presidential and parliamentary elections on the same date to reduce financial and bureaucratic costs -- an idea we should push. UNAMA supports the idea of using the Berlin JCMB Political Directors' meeting to flag the need to get the planning process underway and to ask the JCMB to assume the lead in sorting through the issues and mobilizing international support. ¶7. (SBU) The reciprocal quality of the elections issues makes it well suited for the JCMB. On one hand, donors need to be pressed early for financial support without which planning cannot proces and the next elections are unlikely. On the other, the current schedule that spreads the next national elections over two years would vastly increase the cost and complexity. A change in the schedule will require adjustments in the constitution, which only underlines the need for early pressure to fix the problem. -------------- Points for Consideration for Berlin -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Post recommends the following points as part of the U.S. delgation's remarks on the second day of the JCMB Political Directors' meeting in Berlin. The 2004 Presidential Elections and the 2005 National Assembly/Provincial Council Elections in Afghanistan were tremendous successes and critical milestones for Afghanistan. Those elections required a massive Afghan and international effort, which produced results far beyond expectations. The next Afghan presidential elections are scheduled to take place in March-April 2009. The next parliamentary elections are due in 2010. Elections over two years vastly increase the security issues. They will cost more than donors are likely to pay and more than the Afghan Government can afford. The two elections should be held together. KABUL 00000220 003.2 OF 003 There are major tasks that must be completed before the next elections take place. These include: passage of the new election law, the development of a civil voter registry; and the organization of the elections themselves. These challenges require the organizational and financial support of donors as well as capacity-building within the Independent Election Commission and other elements of the Government. We would like to ask the JCMB to consider the establishment of an elections working group, supported by UNAMA and the donor community at large, to oversee these preparations. NEUMANN