PRT GARDEZ: LOGAR PROVINCE SIX MONTH ASSESSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002189

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, S/CRS, SA/PB, S/CT,
EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
NSC PASS FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT
RELEASABLE TO ISAF/NATO/AUST/NZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC MARR AF
SUBJECT: PRT GARDEZ: LOGAR PROVINCE SIX MONTH ASSESSMENT

Classified By: PolCouns Sara Rosenberry for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Logar is a stable, secure, and prosperous province
close to Kabul. The onset of warm weather increased the
number of security incidents but the province remains
generally stable and attractive for development efforts. The
exception is isolated Kharwar District, which insurgents use
as a sanctuary and base for staging attacks in neighboring
provinces, including Kabul. Coalition forces intend to
increase their presence in Logar to deter insurgent
activities. The proposed establishment of a new Czech
Republic-led PRT in the province will help ensure conditions
for development and reconstruction. The economy stands to
benefit considerably from foreign investment in world-class
copper deposits at Aynak. While prosperous relative to its
southeastern neighbors, Logar still suffers from several
common social ills, including high illiteracy and child
mortality rates. The province is poppy-free and received a
narcotics Good Performance Award from the GOA last year.
Governor Hashimi is a capable administrator but has shown no
enthusiasm for counter-insurgency programs or working with
Coalition and PRT efforts to expand and strengthen government
influence in rural areas. END SUMMARY

SECURITY: Stable and Cooperative Save Kharwar
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2. (C) The onset of warm weather during the past six months
has brought an expected increase in security incidents and
insurgent activity in Logar. The province nevertheless
remains relatively stable with limited, localized zones of
insurgent influence and control. A key factor is the
predominance of several large, cohesive, pro-government
tribes that inhabit the province. A significant exception to
the relative stability is Kharwar District in the South,
where there is no effective administrative or security
presence. This isolated area is a safe haven and staging
area for insurgent activities in other provinces, notably
Kabul and Ghazni. While the targets lie outside the
province, insurgents also harass coalition and government
forces in Logar, mostly through IED attacks, including in
Mohammed Agha District along the main road to Kabul. A
high-profile incident was the May shooting of young girls as
they left their school near Puli Alam, the provincial
capital. There also have been a number of incidents in
Charkh District that borders Kharwar. Coalition forces have
increased counter-insurgency operations in the area, and PRT
has begun complementary development activities. Coalition
forces intend to place a FOB in Kharwar and to expand
significantly the current FOB in Puli Alam to battalion
strength.


3. (SBU) Azra District is perhaps more isolated than Kharwar
and shares a short border with Pakistan. The district's
staunch pro-government stance has deterred insurgent
influence in the area. Security is sufficiently stable in the
rest of Logar to enable economic development efforts to
expand. The Gardez Regional Training Center (RTC) has trained
over 150 ANAP who have been deployed with mixed results. The
ANA covers Logar from units based in nearby Kabul. Logar is
a poppy-free province and received a Good Performance Award
from the GOA last year in recognition of this achievement.
Significant marijuana production occurs in Azra.

POLITICAL: Governor's Performance Uneven, but Population
Loyal
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4. (SBU) Governor Hashimi appears to have the support of most
traditional leaders and is an efficient manager. He has
little political clout in Kabul, however, which frustrates
and undermines his efforts. He complains continuously about
a lack of funding for his administration. Hashimi has not

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been aggressive in dealing with the insurgent threat in
Logar. His reluctance to travel to outlying districts to
emphasize government control and authority hampers Coalition
efforts and diminishes his personal influence. Under
Coalition pressure to attend several district shuras, Hashimi
instead abruptly went on extended holiday to his home in
Europe. MP and former local mujahideen commander Dr. Fazulah
Mujahadeen is perhaps the most politically influential figure
in the province. An Attorney General's Office investigation
in April removed several prominent provincial officials,
including the Mayor of Puli Alam, the Finance Department
Chief, the Governor's Office Personnel Director, and several
prosecutors and administrative functionaries from the
Education and Agriculture Departments. Governor Hashimi has
not been linked to corruption.


5. (SBU) While Logar residents are largely pro-government
and anti-insurgent, popular perceptions of and allegiance to
the provincial and district administrators depend primarily
on the personalities and capabilities of individual
administrators. Residents of outlying areas rely more on
traditional authorities and are frustrated by the
government's inability to provide basic public services.
Taliban-influenced Kharwar District has not shown any
enthusiasm for development projects or expanded government
influence and is a de facto autonomous zone. The Provincial
Council in Logar has not yet carved an administrative niche
for itself and functions chiefly as an advisory group to the
Governor and provincial level committees, notably the PDC.
The opposition United Front Party is active and has
significant influence in Northern Mohammad Agha District,
which has a sizeable (25 percent) non-Pashtun population.


ECONOMIC: Relative Prosperity
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6. (U) Logar is a relatively progressive and prosperous area,
owing to its proximity to Kabul, its stability, and its rich
agricultural lands. Agriculture accounts for over 60 percent
of employment in Logar, and another 30 percent of the people
are involved in trade and services. Livestock, wheat,
vegetable, and fruit production predominate. Logar benefits
tremendously by having a ready market for its products in
nearby Kabul. A lack of sufficient energy resources hampers
development --- only 21 percent of households in the province
have access to electricity. The province lacks adequate
electricity to power cold storage facilities to preserve and
maximize the marketability of fruit and vegetable crops.
Inadequate transportation links have deterred economic
development in some districts, notably Kharwar and Azra.
Governor Hashimi's top priority development project is a new
road to Azra, which is cut-off from the rest of the province
in winter and relies on transportation links through
Nangharhar.


7. (SBU) One of Afghanistan's most promising foreign
investment schemes is located in Logar. The development of a
copper mine at Aynak will exploit significant copper
deposits, possibly comparable to those in Chile. A contract
will soon be approved with one of several international
bidders. A significant and continuing return of
"expatriates" (almost 13,000 families) to Logar are helping
to resuscitate the economy. Governor Hashimi would like to
build a village to house 12,000 homeless returnees.


8. (C) The US-led PRT has committed USD 2.4 million to
active projects, mostly small-scale endeavors such as
upgrading and constructing government buildings, medical
facilities, schools, and providing humanitarian assistance.
USD 34 million in road projects are planned and the PRT is
seeking funding for the Azra road, which will cost roughly
USD 60 million to complete. The relative stability of Logar
and its development potential have attracted 12 active NGOs
to the province, including CARE, IRC, and the Afghan
Development Association. UNAMA covers Logar from its central

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regional headquarters in Kabul, and five other UN agencies
work in the province.


9. (C) The Czech Republic has expressed interest in
establishing a PRT in Logar. The Czechs would set up the PRT
base either co-located with Coalition forces in Puli Alam or
at a nearby facility. The Czechs plan an enhanced contingent
of 120 personnel, including a 60-person force protection
unit. They hope to have the PRT fully operational by
February 2008, pending approval in July or August by the
Czech government.

CULTURAL/SOCIAL: Typical Ills
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10. (U) Logar's relatively mixed population (75 percent
Pashtun, 25 percent Tajik and Hazara) and the cosmopolitan
influence of Kabul set the province apart from its
conservative southeastern neighbors, notably Paktia and
Ghazni. Women's rights are more advanced, except in isolated
rural areas where traditional abuses continue unhindered.
Women also suffer an alarming but typically high 12 percent
maternal mortality rate. Literacy remains low at 28 percent
of the population and only 30 percent of children (boys 40
percent and girls 20 percent) attend school. Traditional
tribal social norms prevail outside of urban areas though
this situation is gradually changing, especially in
communities close to Kabul. The rule of law sector is
relatively advanced in Logar, though traditional inter-tribal
councils still play a prominent legal role. The performance
of judges and prosecutors suffers in Logar as elsewhere from
a lack of training and poor pay that makes them vulnerable to
corruption.


11. (U) Health care is inadequate in Logar. Access to
facilities in Kabul helps to ameliorate the situation, but
barely. Sanitation continues to be a problem. Only 48
percent of families have access to potable drinking water.
Malaria episodes and a shortage of physicians, malnutrition,
and an absence of sanitary conditions have contributed to a
high mortality rate (19 percent) for children under five
years of age. In March, significant flooding occurred as a
result of the spring rains, causing loss of life and
residential damage in several districts, notably in Mohammed
Agha.

WOOD