COUNSELOR COHEN AND NSA RASSOUL DISCUSS SECURITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001757 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, S/CRS, S/CT, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG, NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CSTC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR NATO AF SUBJECT: COUNSELOR COHEN AND NSA RASSOUL DISCUSS SECURITY, IRAN, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES REF: KABUL 1609 Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Carol A. Rodley, for reas ons 1.4 b, d. ¶1. (C) Summary: In a recent wide-ranging conversation with Counselor Cohen, National Security Advisor emphasized that the security situation in Afghanistan has improved significantly since last summer, particularly in Kandahar, and that reconstruction is starting to take hold in many areas. He said that whereas many rank-and-file Taliban are newly recruited from Pakistani madrassas, their leadership is largely unchanged from 2001 and has strengthened its linkages to Al Qaeda. Rassoul expressed his concern about recent Iranian involvement in Afghanistan. He said that democracy is strong in Afghanistan and welcomed the development of political parties. He commented that while civilian casualties are sometimes inevitable, the problem would be mitigated by more frequently putting Afghan security forces in the lead. End summary. ¶2. (C) In a May 8 meeting with Counselor Cohen, National Security Advisor Rassoul said that 2007 has seen a marked improvement in the security situation in Afghanistan. A series of joint ISAF/ANA operations have yielded good results, the quality of governors has improved, and reconstruction has picked up pace in many parts of the country, especially Kandahar. Moreover, contrary to expectation there was no Taliban spring offensive, primarily because the government, Coalition, and ISAF were well-prepared and seized the initiative. The focus now is on Helmand and those areas in the East where the insurgents are able to cross the border from Waziristan. Who Are the Taliban? -------------- ¶3. (C) In response to the Counselor,s question of "who are the Taliban?", Rassoul answered that the foot soldiers are different but the commanders are the same as 2001. The foot soldiers, many newly recruited from Pakistani madrassas, are not good fighters. A lot of them don,t know why they are fighting. Rassoul argued that the Taliban leadership do not believe they will be able to win in Afghanistan but their backers are �A;pushing them to keep Afghanistan unstable. The Taliban are also closer to Al Qaeda than they used to be, and have adopted tactics from Iraq such as suicide bombings. View of Iran, ISAF -------------- ¶4. (C) With regard to Iran, Rassoul said that the Iranians were very cooperative until the election of Ahmedinejad. Khatemi had privately supported the U.S presence in Afghanistan. Since Ahmedinejad came into power, there has been a different mentality. Iran has been in contact with the Taliban and is active in the western part of the country. It is encouraging political opposition against President Karzai. The GOA is definitely worried about Iran right now, Rassoul said. ¶5. (C) Rassoul evaluated the transition to ISAF lead by saying that the Afghans believe that Coalition forces are better than ISAF. The quality of soldiers is different, as is the nature of their contact with the populace, and the U.S. military is more capable. That said, British and Canadian troops have performed very well. Ambassador Wood added that both the British and the Canadians are increasing their KABUL 00001757 002 OF 002 diplomatic and security presence in Afghanistan, and other countries such as Italy are reviewing theirs. He noted that changing national caveats must be done on the political level and remains hard. Political Parties and Democracy -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked to comment on Afghan political trends over the coming five to 10 years, Rassoul said that the people are politicized. They are thinking about elections and candidates - the democratic process is taking root. Rassoul said Afghanistan needs political parties (although President Karzai doesn,t agree with him, he said). Indeed, Rassoul believes that the creation of the United Front is a positive thing. His disagreement with them is that they claim not to be in opposition, while actually they are. He said that if the United Front were to win an election and make changes, the Afghan polity would be able to accept that. Moreover, Rassoul said that he believed criticism of the President and government is healthy. Although people worry about the media, freedom of the press is a positive value. ¶7. (C) Regarding U.S. engagement, Rassoul said that the Afghan people want to see that the U.S. is engaged for the long term. This is crucial to building confidence in their future. Afghanistan needs continued declarations of U.S. support. The Afghan leadership is also confident that the U.S. is working with Afghanistan,s neighbors (particularly Pakistan) to improve the security situation. Civilian Casualties -------------- ¶8. (C) The final topic of discussion was civilian casualties, and in particular the recent event in Shindand, Herat. Rassoul said he understood that the Coalition action in that case was reactive and correct. He echoed other analysis (see reftel and septel) that the GOA and its military partners need to be better in getting the story out. He noted that there are three types of occasions leading to complaints from the local populace: 1) when civilians are being used as shields - casuaties in these cases are unavoidable; 2) "hard knock" home searches - it is better to use Afghan forces for these; and 3) if there is a planned operation, Afghan security forces should be more fully engaged in planning and execution. ¶9. (U) The delegation has cleared this cable. WOOD