AMBASSADOR LOOKS AT SECURITY, POLICE, POPPY IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001720

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT, S/CR, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM
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CENTCOM FOR CG CG CJTF-82 POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PINR PGOV PTER NATO SNAR AF
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR LOOKS AT SECURITY, POLICE, POPPY IN
NORTH

Classified By: Ambassador William Wood for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) (SUMMARY) During a May 13 visit to Mazar-i-Sharif
and meeting with Balkh Governor Atta, the Ambassador offered
congratulations for a dramatic reduction in poppy production,
announced a planned increase in assistance to the province,
and urged more progress on combating local warlords. The
Governor reported he had set aside acreage for investment by
Dole Foods and assured the Ambassador Balkh would remain drug
free. In meetings at Regional Command (RC) North and the
Swedish-led PRT, the Ambassador discussed poppy, police
reform, and security. Special Forces explained that the main
areas of unrest correspond geographically to Pashtun
"pockets," but most violence is caused by common criminality.
Security incidents are on the rise in Balkh and Kunduz
provinces. Regional power struggles between local power
brokers keep authorities busy, giving insurgents a window to
recruit. PRT leadership expressed confidence that most
locals would support the removal of some lower-level power
brokers; they are hopeful and expecting change to improve
their lives. The future role of the police depends on the
army's ability to perform, recruitment procedures, and
training. Successfully eradicating the poppy in Balkh
province has added to its profile as a model of success. END
SUMMARY.

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Balkh Province: Model of Success
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2. (SBU) Governor Atta used his meeting with the Ambassador
to outline a positive picture of the current situation in
Balkh province. Security is relatively good, though there is
some criminal activity, "like anywhere in the world." Rule
of law exists. Imports and exports are up, as is income.
The Ambassador congratulated Atta on his success and
announced that the US intends to triple its assistance to the
province. He added that Balkh is viewed as a model of
success despite a legacy of drug production. The Ambassador
told Atta the US would like to see more "normal" law
enforcement capacity in the province and reduction in the
number of local leaders who operate through violence and
threats. Atta assured the Ambassador that "there will be no
more drugs or poppy in this province...opium sabotages the
GOA." Atta announced he has designated 10,000 hectares of
land to be available for agricultural investments by Dole CEO
Murdoch. Atta predicted that "if Mr. Murdoch's words come
true, it will be a revolution in the life of people here."

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Pashtun "Pockets" Are Trouble Spots
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3. (C) At the PRT Mazar-i-Sharif briefing, Swedish
Intelligence Officer Anders Ohland highlighted that the
trouble spots in their area of operations (AOR) correspond to
the geographic "Pashtun pockets" where enclaves of ethnic
Pashtuns live among the Tajik, Turkmen, and Uzbek-dominated
northwest. He noted that most criminal activity in
northwestern Faryab, Jowzan, Sar i Pul, and Balkh provinces
is linked to the narcotics industry, adding that security
incidents (in the Northwest specifically or the North
generally) are probably less well-thought out and less
well-timed than the PRT assumes. Whereas in the south it is
clear that the Taliban are behind attacks, in the North it is
difficult to pinpoint responsibility and motives. While the
Taliban have not given up trying to gain local support in
Balkh, they are less active than in Kunduz.

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Security Incidents Increasing in Balkh and Kunduz
-------------- --------------


4. (S) PRT Mazar Deputy Commander LTC Pertti Pullinen
(Finland) noted that security incidents had increased. His

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intelligence specialist characterized this as a sign of
success because it demonstrated that ISAF forces are
effectively pressuring "the bad guys," who are responding
with an uptick in terrorist tactics. PRT Intelligence Officer
Anders Ohland cited bad governance as one of the principal
security threats in the northwest.

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Would Locals Support Removal Of Power Brokers?
-------------- -


5. (C) The Ambassador and the PRT leadership discussed how
local power brokers (LPBs) in the region might be
engaged. PRT POLAD Ingrid Tersman highlighted that locals
want positive change in their lives. She and the
Ambassador agreed that LPBs fall into three categories: (1)
those who have returned to society as village elders and
are accepted by their local communities; (2) the "mega-LPBs"
like Governor Atta and General Dostum who have carved out
fiefdoms of power over which they have solid control; and (3)
lower-level LPBs who are not accepted by their community.


6. (C) Tersman hypothesized that locals would support the
removal of LPBs in category three because it would likely
result in increased security without high risk. She noted
the removal of Wali Mohammed and Amatullah Matullah, had
improved the lives of locals in their communities. In the
case of Wali Mohammed (and also of Mawlawi Islam),the
lack of an heir apparent caused the power structure to fall
apart. Deputy Commander Pullinen stressed that when LPBs are
arrested they should be moved immediately to Kabul, where
their chances of remaining incarcerated are much higher. On
the whole, the population feels safer than it did a year ago.

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Successful Police Recruitment a Challenge
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7. (C) Intel officer Ohland noted that recruitment was
vital to the success of the police. Recruits from outside
the region could feasibly do conventional policing better (by
not getting swept up in local alliances that often lead to
corrupt behavior) but would be less able to collect human
intelligence and liaise with locals. Polad Tersman
said that training and recruitment must take into account the
high levels of illiteracy; if they cannot write, they
can't be expected to write reports on investigations. She
suggested that short, medium, and long-term training
programs would be most appropriate and should be developed to
take into consideration the literacy levels of police
recruits.

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Poppy Elimination Successful in Balkh
--------------


8. (U) At a meeting at the Poppy Elimination Program (PEP)
office on the Governor's compound, PEP Advisor Martha
Barbosa reported that poppy production was down at least 80
percent in Balkh province. This is a dramatic improvement
over the anticipated increase of 15-20 percent in production.
Last year, the province was "carpeted" with poppies. This
year, while there may be some unsurveyed production in the
remote mountains, less than half an acre has been identified
in the flatlands. Barbosa credited the success to Governor
Atta's active support for the anti-poppy campaign, including
going out himself and eradicating for an entire day with a
shovel. She also noted the PEP team's extensive public
information campaign, which included knocking on doors and
reaching out to the mosques, local sporting events, schools,
and health centers. They directly contacted 8,000
individuals during the campaign. The result: last summer, a
survey of farmers in 91 villages across 14 districts
indicated that they intended to plant poppy. This year they
did not plant.

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9. (U) Barbosa said the next challenge will be high
addiction levels, especially among returnees from Iran and
the ethnic Turkmen community in Jowzan and Faryab provinces.
Children as young as five are addicted, as a result of their
mothers blowing opium smoke into their faces to calm them
down or licking their hands while they harvest resin from the
poppy flowers. Doctors report they must travel to homes to
provide care, as addicts are too embarrassed to come to the
medical clinic to seek help.
WOOD