PRT MAZAR-E-SHARIF: POPPY PRODUCTION DOWN IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001570 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A. CG CJTF-82 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER EAID MARR AF SUBJECT: PRT MAZAR-E-SHARIF: POPPY PRODUCTION DOWN IN NORTHWEST DESPITE MIXED PERFORMANCE BY MOST GOVERNORS Classified By: POLCOUNS Sara Rosenberry for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Northwest Afghanistan (Balkh, Jowzjan, Samangan, Sar-e Pul and Faryab provinces) will produce much less poppy than last year as a result of a substantial drop in cultivation in Balkh Province, the sixth largest producer last year in Afghanistan. Some governors exaggerate their successes, including Atta in Balkh. Although production is down markedly, for which Atta can claim credit, he has more work to do. He has yet to tackle most of the poppy believed to be growing in remote areas of his province. UNODC and PEP will press him on this, and are optimistic that Governor- Led Eradication (GLE) teams can tackle some of these areas. The prospects for Samangan reaching zero are also good, despite Governor Shafaq's reliance on negotiation with locals for conducting GLE. Jowzjan Governor Hamdard continues to neglect anti-poppy efforts, as does Governor Latif of Faryab who nevertheless attracted favorable publicity from the Ministry of Interior, the USG, and the press for his work. Governor Munib does not control his province and his GLE, relying on negotiations, has been unsuccessful overall. Despite worrying signs on the micro level, total production from the NW will be down significantly from last year thanks to the drop in Balkh. This may represent a counter- narcotics success but it does not necessarily constitute evidence of good governance by most of the NW governors. END SUMMARY. Balkh -------------- ¶2. (C) One of the key powerbrokers in northern Afghanistan, Balkh Governor Atta is exaggerating his poppy success. Although he ran a very successful anti-planting campaign, there are reports of up to 1000 hectares of poppy in the province, mainly in the remote Alborz mountains, where his control is less strong. (Note: NAS conducted an aerial recon through central Balkh on May 6, surveying last year's prime cultivation areas, and found only three small plots of poppy totaling no more than two hectares. Poppy ;production in the province is significantly lower than last year. End note.) UNODC eradication verifiers contest the Governor's claims that Alborz has only 40 hectares of poppy and that they have all been eradicated this week. UNODC's May 6 eradication report recorded 19 hectares of eradication. Eradication began on April 22 and is ongoing. UNODC also disputed Atta's claim of women and children resisting and carrying Korans. That happened last year in Balkh, but this year only in other provinces, they said. ¶3. PEP and UNODC agree that there is more poppy in Alborz beyond where GLE eradication has occurred so far, the village of Song Tooda. Of the 38 villages in Alborz, UNODC Kabul has selected 10 to survey. Song Tooda and three others have already been surveyed. PEP guesses there could be as much as 1000 hectares in the area. UNODC confirms that the hillsides and valleys in this area are "covered with poppy." Atta's GLE is using two tractors and still has much work to do, including hiring locals to do manual eradication. In other areas of Balkh province, in Char Kint the District Administrator and local farmers eradicated 20 jeribs without the presence of observers. In Balkh district, Dawlatabad and Charbolak more local eradication was done, although district governors, embarrassed that it was planted at KABUL 00001570 002 OF 003 all, have denied that any eradication was done, according to UNODC. Samangan -------------- ¶4. (C) Planting was down in Samangan as a result of Governor Shafaq's vigorous anti-planting campaign. The most remote district, Upper and Lower Dari Suf, have poppy and we anticipate that eradication there wills tart soon now that the weather has warmed. UNODC believes zero poppy (defined as less than 100 hectares) is achievable. PRT Mazar-e Sharif is supporting Governor Shafaq with fuel for his GLE campaign as a reward for good governance overall. Governor Shafaq is relying on negotiation for his GLE but his prospects are good, according to most observers. Sar-e Pul -------------- ¶5. (C) Planting in Sar-e Pul was up over last year as Governor Munib's anti-poppy campaign was not persuasive. The real power in Sar-e Pul is the Khan brothers, who are deeply involved in the drug business. GLE eradication is ongoing in remote Sayyad district. In other districts, Governor Munib has told district administrators to do eradication themselves or they will be fired. It is still too cold in Kohistinat for the poppy to have grown much. In Sozma Qala, negotiations with local leaders are ongoing. All GLE eradication in Sar-e Pul is done by negotiation, according to UNODC, and Munib is not in control of the province so his success is limited. Jowzjan -------------- ¶6. (C) Planting was extensive in Jowzjan this year as Governor Hamdard's attention was focused on elsewhere. Hmadard has begun limted GLE in Sheberghan and Qushtepa. In Darisab district it has not yet started. GLE is done by force in Jozjan but the province is not expected to get to "zero" since Govenor Hamdard is widely viewed as being in the narcotics business. Also, the Turkmen community grows poppy for its own consumption and to smuggle across the Amu Darya river border to fellow Turkmen in Turkmenistan. Faryab -------------- ¶7. (C) While UNODC's Winter Assessment Survey predicted no change in Faryab's poppy cultivation this year, UNODC observers on the ground recently informed PRToff that cultivation in the province would probably increase this year. Governor Latif is reported to be in the poppy business and his GLE efforts have been token to date. All GLE in Faryab is by negotiation, with only the poorest farmers' crops being eradicated. Governor Latif scored a propaganda coup when he brought the Deputy Minister of Interior and the Deputy Minister of Counter Narcotics to commend his anti- poppy efforts. Counter Narcotics Task Force Director and a film crew were also on hand. One of the deputy ministers was an old friend from his Kunduz days; PRT Meymenah observers believe Latif either called in a favor or paid a fat bribe to MOI for the visit. Latif blamed the slow pace of eradication on security problems and claims MOI will now send 100 armed men to escort the eradicators. According to UNODC, each eradication effort takes a particularly long time for negotiation; some days the teams go out and come back at night with no eradication accomplished. KABUL 00001570 003 OF 003 Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The counternarcotics picture in the Northwest is an improvement over last year but not a complete success. It is not easy to get an accurate picture. PEP only works in Balkh. UNODC is not untouched by allegations of negligence -- one verifier spends much of his time smoking cannabis under a tree instead of working, according to some witnesses. Some governors exaggerate their successes, including Atta in Balkh. If presented with proof of more poppy, Atta will have to go back in and continue GLE to realize his very public commitment to drop production to "zero" this year. If he achieves that, Balkh will be a great example for the rest of the country and Atta will be looking to Kabul for a reward. Although he is not out of the poppy business completely, this year he seems to be concentrating on revenues from smuggling and warehoused stocks, according to most observers. ¶9. (C) Jowzjan Governor Hamdard is also pursuing eradication by force but he is not committed to eliminating poppy any more than he is to implementing the rest of the government of Afghanistan's agenda. Samangan Governor Shafaq, a hard-working man without many allies, is pursuing negotiation with elders with some success and his province will probably reach "zero." Governor Munib in Sar-e Pul has conducted less effective negotiations because the notorious Khan brothers really run Sar-e Pul, and they are deeply involved in the narcotics business and probably give Munib a cut, according to observers. Faryab Governor Latif's poor performance on poppy cultivation and eradication adds to the evidence that he should be removed as governor. Despite these worrying signs on the micro level, however, total production from the Northwest will be down significantly from last year thanks to the drop in Balkh. This may represent a counter-narcotics success but it is not evidence of good governance by most of our governors. WOOD