PRT MAZAR-E-SHARIF: POPPY PRODUCTION DOWN IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001570

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG
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CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A. CG CJTF-82 POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER EAID MARR AF
SUBJECT: PRT MAZAR-E-SHARIF: POPPY PRODUCTION DOWN IN
NORTHWEST DESPITE MIXED PERFORMANCE BY MOST GOVERNORS


Classified By: POLCOUNS Sara Rosenberry for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) SUMMARY: Northwest Afghanistan (Balkh,
Jowzjan, Samangan, Sar-e Pul and Faryab provinces)
will produce much less poppy than last year as a
result of a substantial drop in cultivation in Balkh
Province, the sixth largest producer last year in
Afghanistan. Some governors exaggerate their
successes, including Atta in Balkh. Although
production is down markedly, for which Atta can
claim credit, he has more work to do. He has yet to
tackle most of the poppy believed to be growing in
remote areas of his province. UNODC and PEP will
press him on this, and are optimistic that Governor-
Led Eradication (GLE) teams can tackle some of these
areas. The prospects for Samangan reaching zero are
also good, despite Governor Shafaq's reliance on
negotiation with locals for conducting GLE. Jowzjan
Governor Hamdard continues to neglect anti-poppy
efforts, as does Governor Latif of Faryab who
nevertheless attracted favorable publicity from
the Ministry of Interior, the USG, and the press for
his work. Governor Munib does not control his
province and his GLE, relying on negotiations, has
been unsuccessful overall. Despite worrying signs on
the micro level, total production from the NW
will be down significantly from last year thanks to
the drop in Balkh. This may represent a counter-
narcotics success but it does not necessarily
constitute evidence of good governance by most of the
NW governors. END SUMMARY.

Balkh
--------------


2. (C) One of the key powerbrokers in northern
Afghanistan, Balkh Governor Atta is exaggerating his
poppy success. Although he ran a very successful
anti-planting campaign, there are reports of up to
1000 hectares of poppy in the province, mainly in the
remote Alborz mountains, where his control is less
strong. (Note: NAS conducted an aerial recon through
central Balkh on May 6, surveying last year's prime
cultivation areas, and found only three small plots of
poppy totaling no more than two hectares. Poppy
production in the province is significantly lower than
last year. End note.) UNODC eradication verifiers
contest the Governor's claims that Alborz has only 40
hectares of poppy and that they have all been
eradicated this week. UNODC's May 6 eradication
report recorded 19 hectares of eradication.
Eradication began on April 22 and is ongoing. UNODC
also disputed Atta's claim of women and children
resisting and carrying Korans. That happened last
year in Balkh, but this year only in other provinces,
they said.


3. PEP and UNODC agree that there is more poppy in
Alborz beyond where GLE eradication has occurred so
far, the village of Song Tooda. Of the 38 villages in
Alborz, UNODC Kabul has selected 10 to survey. Song
Tooda and three others have already been surveyed.
PEP guesses there could be as much as 1000 hectares in
the area. UNODC confirms that the hillsides and
valleys in this area are "covered with poppy." Atta's
GLE is using two tractors and still has much work to
do, including hiring locals to do manual eradication.
In other areas of Balkh province, in Char Kint
the District Administrator and local farmers
eradicated 20 jeribs without the presence of
observers. In Balkh district, Dawlatabad and
Charbolak more local eradication was done, although
district governors, embarrassed that it was planted at

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all, have denied that any eradication was done,
according to UNODC.

Samangan
--------------


4. (C) Planting was down in Samangan as a result of
Governor Shafaq's vigorous anti-planting campaign.
The most remote district, Upper and Lower Dari Suf,
have poppy and we anticipate that eradication there
wills tart soon now that the weather has warmed. UNODC
believes zero poppy (defined as less than 100
hectares) is achievable. PRT Mazar-e Sharif is
supporting Governor Shafaq with fuel for his GLE
campaign as a reward for good governance overall.
Governor Shafaq is relying on negotiation for his GLE
but his prospects are good, according to most
observers.

Sar-e Pul
--------------


5. (C) Planting in Sar-e Pul was up over last year as
Governor Munib's anti-poppy campaign was not
persuasive. The real power in Sar-e Pul is the Khan
brothers, who are deeply involved in the drug
business. GLE eradication is ongoing in remote Sayyad
district. In other districts, Governor Munib has told
district administrators to do eradication themselves
or they will be fired. It is still too cold in
Kohistinat for the poppy to have grown much.
In Sozma Qala, negotiations with local leaders are
ongoing. All GLE eradication in Sar-e Pul is done by
negotiation, according to UNODC, and Munib is not in
control of the province so his success is limited.

Jowzjan
--------------


6. (C) Planting was extensive in Jowzjan this year as
Governor Hamdard's attention was focused on elsewhere.
Hmadard has begun limted GLE in Sheberghan and
Qushtepa. In Darisab district it has not yet started.
GLE is done by force in Jozjan but the province is not
expected to get to "zero" since Govenor Hamdard is
widely viewed as being in the narcotics business.
Also, the Turkmen community grows poppy for its own
consumption and to smuggle across the Amu Darya river
border to fellow Turkmen in Turkmenistan.

Faryab
--------------


7. (C) While UNODC's Winter Assessment Survey
predicted no change in Faryab's poppy cultivation this
year, UNODC observers on the ground recently informed
PRToff that cultivation in the province would probably
increase this year. Governor Latif is reported to be
in the poppy business and his GLE efforts have been
token to date. All GLE in Faryab is by negotiation,
with only the poorest farmers' crops being eradicated.
Governor Latif scored a propaganda coup when he
brought the Deputy Minister of Interior and the Deputy
Minister of Counter Narcotics to commend his anti-
poppy efforts. Counter Narcotics Task Force Director
and a film crew were also on hand. One of the deputy
ministers was an old friend from his Kunduz days; PRT
Meymenah observers believe Latif either called in a
favor or paid a fat bribe to MOI for the visit. Latif
blamed the slow pace of eradication on security
problems and claims MOI will now send 100 armed men to
escort the eradicators. According to UNODC, each
eradication effort takes a particularly long time for
negotiation; some days the teams go out and come back
at night with no eradication accomplished.


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Comment
--------------


8. (C) The counternarcotics picture in the Northwest
is an improvement over last year but not a complete
success. It is not easy to get an accurate picture.
PEP only works in Balkh. UNODC is not untouched by
allegations of negligence -- one verifier spends much
of his time smoking cannabis under a tree instead of
working, according to some witnesses. Some governors
exaggerate their successes, including Atta in Balkh.
If presented with proof of more poppy, Atta will
have to go back in and continue GLE to realize his
very public commitment to drop production to "zero"
this year. If he achieves that, Balkh will be a great
example for the rest of the country and Atta will be
looking to Kabul for a reward. Although he is not out
of the poppy business completely, this year he seems
to be concentrating on revenues from smuggling and
warehoused stocks, according to most observers.


9. (C) Jowzjan Governor Hamdard is also pursuing
eradication by force but he is not committed to
eliminating poppy any more than he is to implementing
the rest of the government of Afghanistan's agenda.
Samangan Governor Shafaq, a hard-working man without
many allies, is pursuing negotiation with elders with
some success and his province will probably reach
"zero." Governor Munib in Sar-e Pul has conducted
less effective negotiations because the notorious Khan
brothers really run Sar-e Pul, and they are deeply
involved in the narcotics business and probably give
Munib a cut, according to observers. Faryab Governor
Latif's poor performance on poppy cultivation and
eradication adds to the evidence that he should be
removed as governor. Despite these worrying signs on
the micro level, however, total production from the
Northwest will be down significantly from last year
thanks to the drop in Balkh. This may represent a
counter-narcotics success but it is not evidence of
good governance by most of our governors.
WOOD