NATIONAL FRONT OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001198 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/FO, SCA/A, S/CT, S/CR, SCA/PAB, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-82 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AF SUBJECT: NATIONAL FRONT OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED REF: A. KABUL 919 ¶B. KABUL 1031 Classified By: Political Counselor Sara A. Rosenberry for Reasons 1.4 ( b) & (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On April 3, several parliamentarians and jihad leaders announced the formal launching of the United Front (reftel A). MP Rabbani was declared the group's leader, and MP Sayed Mustafa Kazimi its spokesperson. Vice President Massoud, Water and Energy Minister Ismail Khan and the ex-King's grandson Mustafa Zahir Shah are also members. Rabbani told the crowd of several hundred that the Front represents "a new experience in the political life" of Afghanistan. Its goals include creating a parliamentary system of government and direct elections for governors (versus presidential appointments). Despite the Front's claims that it is not interested in weakening the Karzai government, its goals appear to be aimed directly at limiting the President's authority. Karzai supporters claim Iran and Russian are encouraging the movement. The Foreign Ministry convened a meeting of resident Ambassadors on April 8 to argue that the National Front represented a threat to the Bonn Process and ask that donors make clear they will not support the movement. The Embassy has taken the position that while the Front may be a potential threat to Karzai's power, its creation marks progress because political strongmen are attempting to use the political process to attain their goals as opposed to resorting to violence. END SUMMARY. -------------- Front Members: A Who's Who of Power Brokers -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The mood was electric at the April 4 meeting at the Hotel Intercontinental in Kabul where a standing room only crowd of several hundred Afghans and international press crammed in to watch the theatrics. On stage, it was a who's who of the powerful opposition to Karzai announcing their membership in the Front: Inter alia, this included MP (and former President) Rabbani, Lower House Speaker Qanooni, the ex-King's grandson Mustafa Zahir, Water and Energy Minister Ismail Khan, Second Deputy Speaker of the Lower House Aref Noorzai (who is tied to the Karzai family by marriage), former Defense Minister Marshal Fahim, MP Kazimi, MPs Gulabzoy and Olumi (both communist era leaders) were among them. Two women members, including newly-elected chair of the Lower House Women's Committee Qadriya Yazdanparast, were also present. ¶3. (C) At least six National Unity Council members were present (Note: Thus far separate from the Front, the Council seeks to limit foreign forces' operations in Afghanistan- see reftel B.) In separate conversations with Front leader MP Noorulhaq Olumi and Council leader Bashir Bezhan, both assured Poloff and Pol FSN that the Council and the Front had no intention of merging. Bezhan derided the Front's public announcement ceremony as pure theatrics. Olumi categorically rejected the possibility that the Front would sponsor or support the Council's draft bill to limit foreign military operations in any way. (Comment: If the two groups did merge in the future, it seems unlikely that National Front members would support a draft bill calling for the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. End Comment.) -------------- Front's Charter Outlined -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Rabbani outlined the Front's Charter: KABUL 00001198 002 OF 004 a. Follow Islam. b. Support the rule of law. c. Defend the freedom, independence, and sovereignty of Afghanistan. d. Amend the election law so governors are elected, not appointed. e. Form a parliamentary system of government based on Articles 149/150 of the Constitution. f. Develop civil society to maintain political and social rights. g. Fight against poppy. Rabbani lamented that "The GOA and the international community have not created any programs to help farmers who have been victims of the poppy eradication." (Note: The Embassy has several alternative livelihood programs it has implemented to assist poppy farmers. End Note). h. Fight against Terrorism. Rabbani said that terrorism is completely against Islam, and is concerned about the term "Islamic terrorism" being used in the media. He stressed there is no relation between the two. Terrorism, he added, is completely illegal under Islam. Rabbani pointed out that many terrorism victims have been Muslims. i. Respect for Human Rights. Rabbani said the Front supports human rights but does not support the "political and false" Human Rights Watch report. j. Cooperation with the international community on security. Rabbani said The Front is "committed" to working with the international community, within the framework of the constitution, to strengthen both the quantity as well as the quality of soldiers and policemen who can defend Afghanistan with integrity. He thanked "friendly countries" for their assistance with this so far. -------------- Ex-King's Grandson Call for "Rebuilding" -------------- ¶5. (C) The ex-King's grandson Mustafa Zahir Shah gave an emotionally-charged motivational speech on the need to rebuild the house of Afghanistan "that we helped destroy" and bring light to the darkness in which Afghans live. He made several references to the previous prosperity Afghanistan had known, and added "we extend our hands to everyone to help us rebuild this house." (Note: Mustafa Zahir is believed to have strong presidential ambitions. End Note). Mustafa added that 50 years ago his grandfather had stood in the exact same spot and inaugurated the Hotel Intercontinental as a sign of prosperity in Afghanistan. Now, he noted, 50 years later, he was standing in the Hotel and staking the claim that Afghanistan was moving forward towards the light of a better future. -------------- -- Front Characterized As "New Moment" in Politics -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Rabbani said the Front was a "new experience in the political life of our country." He lamented that, despite the international community's presence, the country was still in chaos. Rabbani called for political parties to build their trust in each other and to join hands. He urged that they put past conflicts behind them and work together to avoid the crisis the country was moving toward. Rabbani noted that other countries "want to see us go up in flames" and the "corruption of officials make Afghanistan vulnerable to certain threats." Rabbani stressed that the Front was not KABUL 00001198 003 OF 004 trying to disrupt the GOA or weaken it (Comment: Despite the Front's claims that it was not interested in weakening the Karzai government, its two main goals appear to be aimed directly at weakening the President's authority. End Comment). -------------- Karzai Supporters Take Threat Seriously -------------- ¶7. Karzai supporters make no bones about the fact that they see the United Front as a concerted effort to undermine the President. Several point to Iran and Russia as working behind the scenes. The Foreign Ministry took the unusual step of inviting representatives from missions to the ministry for a briefing on what ForMin Senior Policy Advisor, Davood Moradian, described as a domestic issue with a regional/international dimension. While the embassy was not able to attend, Moradian later provided his notes for the presentation which, without referring to the National Front by name (but confirming afterwards its founding was the catalyst for the meeting),characterized it as an attempt to manipulate democratic institutions established at Bonn to return Afghanistan to the "politics of the 90,s." He called this a threat more dangerous than the Taliban -- a cancer that could destroy the state-building efforts underway. Moradian told us after the briefing (which he acknowledged produced no questions or response from the diplomats attending) that he had no doubt that Iran and Russia were behind the National Front, and that the meeting was meant as an appeal to donors to make it clear they saw the National Front as a threat to Bonn. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Although basically Sunni Tajik, the National Front includes some Pashtuns and Shi'ites. Some are individuals who fought each other fiercely in the past, and have histories of enmity simmering below their present facade of fellowship. The group appears to be unified on four major points: their shared criticism and suspicion of President Karzai, their interest in accumulating and maintaining as much power as they can for themselves at the expense of the central authority, their fear that Karzai (and some in the international community) may be working towards a reconciliation with the Taliban and/or Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and their deep unease over the threat that they might have to answer for human rights abuses committed in the past. (Note: Indeed, in the first meeting last November that Emboff had with Rabbani,s people to hear about the potential new Front, the thrust of the discussion was their angry reaction to criticism of their human rights records and their suspicions that there were negotiations being conducted with Hekmatyar which could threaten their status and Karzai,s need for their support. End Note.) Afghan contacts have shared that Saddam's execution apparently heightened concerns about the international community's expectations/intent regarding individuals possibly being vulnerable for past actions. The recently passed amnesty law and the restrictive media law anticipated to be proposed in parliament are other manifestations of increased sensitivity in certain quarters, including the National Front, about what are perceived as liberal, internationalist movements by the government. ¶9. (C) Modern Afghan history is a litany of political parties and movements forming and then splitting as various leaders jockeyed for power. These breakups were often very bloody. On paper, there is an almost endless list of official political parties, many of which only seem to serve the interests of very few people. Afghans are generally cynical about such formations, and in recent conversations with Emboff, Afghan contacts have pointed out that the future of this new Front will follow the traditional pattern. They note that the personalities of the leaders, their greed and KABUL 00001198 004 OF 004 ambitions, and their personal histories and vendettas against each other will outweigh the reasons the Front has now come together. ¶10. (C) In one sense, there is some truth to the charge that the Front is an attempt to reintroduce the "politics of the 90's", when many of these same members joined and left temporary coalitions. At the same time, while the Front may be a potential threat to Karzai's power, its creation marks progress in that the members are attempting to use an open political process to attain very important goals instead of simply resorting to violence. The Embassy's position, when asked about the movement, is that it is a domestic political development involving elected members of parliament and leaders who have the right to discuss and recommend steps to address Afghanistan's future. END COMMENT. NORLAND