PRT MEHTARLAM: SIX MONTH REPORT ON SECURITY,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 KABUL 001036 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR HARRIMAN OSD FOR SHIVERS CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-82 POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: MCAP MOPS PREL PGOV PTER PHUM AF SUBJECT: PRT MEHTARLAM: SIX MONTH REPORT ON SECURITY, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS REF: A. KABUL 5651 ¶B. KABUL 4327 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Laghman province is positioned to take advantage of new attention to governing capacity and increases in developmental funding after heightened anti-government activity in 2006. The security situation worsened somewhat in the second half of 2006 due to limited Coalition presence and lack of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capacity. A major security operation in December stabilized the situation and with the exception of a heightened IED threat, 2007 thus far has seen a drop-off in attack levels. Poppy cultivation continues at low levels in Laghman but provincial leadership is dedicated to its eradication. Governor Gulab Mangal and the Provincial Development Council are beginning to provide strong leadership in setting provincial developmental priorities. The Afghan Army and Police are showing some improvement through PRT assistance and a new commander but progress is gradual. Laghman's agrarian economy has potential but needs infrastructure development. The provincial government has established some interim developmental priorities focused on road and agricultural infrastructure that will greatly assist the PRT with CERP, USAID, and other donors in providing reconstruction funding. The electrical power grid and media capacity are set to expand. Women's affairs programs suffer from lack of capacity. End Summary. Security -- Early Improvement After Heightened 2006 Anti-Government Activity -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The security situation in Laghman province has improved slightly from the heightened levels of anti-government activity expierienced in 2006. Local insurgent activity is led by the Taliban and the Hezb-I Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) with most of the financing coming from the Taliban via outside sources. Casualties and lack of funding limited PRT reconstruction efforts and outreach in the second half of 2006. IED attacks increased in the fall and included an unsuccessful assassination attempt against Governor Mangal that resulted in the death of a provincial government engineer (reftel A). Coalition operations in late 2006 directly affected insurgent leadership and their ability to conduct operations in the province. There have been no attacks directed against the PRT in 2007. Governor Mangal, Chief of Police Abdul Kariem Omaryar, and PRT mobile patrols report that the population no longer lists security as a leading concern; obtaining sufficient job opportunities and HEALTH care are now the biggest priorities. IED Attacks Slowed Pace of Reconstruction in 2006 -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) During November and December of 2006, the IED threat intensified due to the presence of an active IED cell in Laghman. Earlier in the year, the regional IED threat focused on Nuristan Province and the Korengal District of Kunar province to Laghman's north and east and the IED cells targeted heavily transited routes and Coalition/ISAF patrols. The IED threat remained constant throughout the summer and did not change until late October 2006 when the insurgents shifted their focus to Laghman because they perceived the province as a safe haven and saw fresh targeting opportunities including the main road in Alingar District. The introduction of a large ISAF led operation in Alishang District in late 2006 prompted the insurgents to introduce an IED cell with an increased capability into Mehtarlam District. This cell targeted the two roads transiting Alingar and Alishang because they are the only means of moving vehicle traffic along river valley routes and the volume of Coalition/ISAF and GoA traffic has increased. The Alingar road will continue to be a location for IEDs as more supplies and material are KABUL 00001036 002 OF 007 moved into Nuristan province and northern Alingar. Poppy Cultivation Ongoing, Eradication Efforts Are Strong -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Poppy cultivation continues at low levels in Laghman but provincial leadership is dedicated to its eradication. The major cultivation areas are in Dawlet Shah and Alingar Districts with smaller amounts cultivated in the outlying regions of Alishang District. Insurgents cultivate poppy to finance illegal weapons trafficking and have recently increased their efforts to safeguard the crop from eradication. Governor Mangal is strongly opposed to poppy cultivation. The provincial government qualified for USD 150,000 from the Good Performers Program because less than 1,000 hectares of poppy was harvested in 2006. (UNODC statistics report that Laghman's total cultivation area was 2,750 hectares in 2004 and 709 hectares in 2006.) Governor Mangal and the Director of Agriculture, Hussin Safi estimate that over 300 additional hectares of poppy have been eradicated in early 2007. New Attention to Governing Capacity -------------- ¶5. (U) Provincial Governor Gulab Mangal has begun to provide strong leadership in setting provincial developmental priorities. Governor Mangal demonstrates interest and skill in including departmental directors, district governors, and village elders in discussions about provincial priorities. His abilities are based in part on his prior experience as a member of the Emergency Loya Jirga, South East Regional Coordinator for the 2002 Constitutional Commission, and his recent tenure as Governor of Paktika province. Mangal informed PRToff that he has no family or other political ties to President Karzai and believed Karzai chose him for his current appointment based on past good performance. He added that he intends to stay in the job until told his services are no longer needed. His current focus is on power, roads, and education. Afghan Army and Police Showing Some Progress -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The capabilities of the Afghan National Army (ANA),Afghan National Police (ANP) and NDS in Laghman has fluctuated since the summer of 2006. The ANA rotated four new companies through the province during the last ten months. While the operational capabilities have increased within each company, this rotation negatively impacted the coordination between the ANA, ANP, and NDS. ¶7. (SBU) ANP performance improved with the arrival of provincial Chief of Police Abdul Kariem Omaryar in October ¶2006. The ANP have steadily increased their capabilities over the last ten months and, with the exception of the Dawlet Shah District, are now able to project their influence into all of the districts with limited success. The major problems with the ANP continue to include a lack of adequate equipment and corruption. The ANP are more capable of providing security of the district centers, however, beyond those locations, their capabilities are severely limited. PRT officials considered Omaryar's predecessor, Mohammed Leqha, somewhat effective but very corrupt (reftel B). The PRT is enhancing the ANP's public standing and capability with its Police Training Assessment Team (PTAT) course on police tactics and procedures. The course focuses on imparting police ethics, professional image and basic techniques to include suspect and vehicle searches and patrolling. Graduates will train fellow ANP officers when they return to their duties. The PRT plans to conduct two 10-15 man courses per month throughout the spring. A provincial communications center building built with CERP funds in Mehtarlam will enhance capability by allowing Afghan security forces to coordinate responses to KABUL 00001036 003 OF 007 provincial emergencies. Agrarian Economy Has Potential, Needs Infrastructure Development -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) According to provincial government statistics, 80 percent of Laghman's population of 593,000 depends on agriculture and animal husbandry for their livelihood according to provincial government statistics. The main crops produced from about 116,000 hectares of cultivatable land are wheat, rice, corn, beans, various vegetables and cheese. Laghman has significant water resources; however, inadequate and badly damaged irrigation systems limit farmers' ability to harness the resource effectively. ONE of the most common requests from provincial officials and citizens and ONE of the most promising options for increasing agricultural output is the construction of dams. However, the lack of hydrological and seismologic data makes donors unwilling to fund such activity. According to the province's Director of Agriculture, a lack of improved wheat seeds and modern agriculture machinery poses a significant challenge for Laghman's farmers. Inadequate roads and electricity limit access to markets from remote areas and make it difficult to establish a manufacturing base. The last industrial plant, a plastics factory, closed when it could not compete with Pakistani firms. The provincial Director of Economics stated that the province would like to open a plant to process sugarcane when sufficient power sources become available. An early draft of a provincial development strategy identifies shrinking job opportunities as the cause for Laghman's youth either traveling to foreign countries to seek jobs or resorting to illegal activities. Governor Mangal and PDC Energizing Reconstruction Efforts -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Laghman made strides in setting priorities for reconstruction efforts over the last six months. In August and September 2006, the USAID Field Program Officer (FPO) from Jalalabad led a strategic planning workshop that involved over 60 Laghman government officials, ulema, and top elders. These sessions yielded a consensus list of strategic development goals to form the basis of a provincial development plan. However, from late September through December, MRRD in Kabul did not provide a mentoring team to guide the interim PDC through the Provincial Development Plan building process. ¶10. (U) The addition of a USAID FPO to the PRT and a visit from the CJTF-82 commander seeking CERP funding proposals, have motivated provincial leadership to identify reconstruction priorities and begin drafting a provincial development strategy. The provincial government considered its developmental priorities in coordination with UNAMA, USAID, the MRRD, and the PRT. Projects were identified in part for their ability to address specific criteria proposed by CJTF-82, including their likelihood for providing short and long term economic and security benefits. The process identified three projects for road construction, three projects for water supply, four projects for flood protection, and a request for heavy equipment to assist in planting and harvesting. A more comprehensive provincial development plan addressing security, governance, social and economic sector issues is currently underway. Participants are presently awaiting additional guidance and training from the MRRD in Kabul. ¶11. (U) The top priority is the widening, leveling and surfacing of a 46 kilometer road from Mehtarlam, the provincial capital, to the Dawlet Shah District Center. Approximately USD 8 million of CERP funding for the road is pending CJTF-82 approval - roughly enough for the stretch from Mehtarlam to the upper Alishang river valley (between the Alishang and Dawlet Shah District centers). This KABUL 00001036 004 OF 007 funding level would be enough to connect two of Laghman's five district centers, Mehtarlam and Alishang, and more than 100 villages, facilitating access to markets and services for more than 50,000 people. The existing road is unimproved, extremely rocky and uneven, narrow and degrading rapidly. In some areas it is simply the clearest path through large boulders. An improved road would also provide faster and safer access for ANA, ANP, and ISAF forces to remote and unstable areas in the northeast of the province. The road priority complements the USD 8.4 million Army Corp of Engineer project to widen and resurface the road from Mehtarlam to Nuristan province in Alingar District scheduled for completion in September ¶2007. ¶12. (U) CJTF-82 approved USD 500,000 in CERP funds at the beginning of January 2007 for the PRT and is reviewing an additional USD 1.5 million for projects identified above as priorities by Governor Mangal and the PDC. Projects under consideration for funding include the Gonapal Road and Dumbulam Bridge in Alishang District as well as another road and vehicle bridge in the Kundagal valley. Both projects would help extend government presence and market access to two remote valleys and enhance security in these areas. Other projects address PDC requests for flood protection walls, improvements to irrigation systems and canals, refurbishment of buildings to establish a provincial motor pool maintenance facility, and purchase of five tractors and associated equipment. ¶13. (U) Prior CERP projects have also focused on current provincial development priorities. CERP funds have supported 50 projects worth USD 1.77 million during FY06 and FY07 with an emphasis on roads, bridges, the power grid, and water infrastructure. The PRT has also concentrated CERP expenditures on education, HEALTH care, religious, and government related projects. ¶14. (U) USAID has already provided USD 6.5 million toward provincial development goals under the Alternative Livelihoods Program (ALP) during FY 05 and 06. A similar amount is budgeted for FY 07. Examples of ALP programs in Laghman include infrastructure development, cash-for-work, fruit orchard development, and institutional management training classes for the provincial government. ¶15. (U) In spring 2007, USAID is implementing 5 projects worth about USD 470,000 under the Local Governance and Community Development Program (LGCD) focused on constructing irrigation canals and flood protection walls. An assessment of provincial and municipal capacity to deliver services and address citizen needs is currently underway and should be completed in April, 2007. Once the assessment is complete future LGCD projects in the area of capacity building for such institutions will be considered. Electricity Slowly Becoming Available -------------- ¶16. (U) Laghman is slowly obtaining greater access to power through grid construction in Mehtarlam and PRT-funded micro-hydro projects. Power distribution in the province is limited to Mehtarlam, the provincial capital. The Russians installed the original power grid in 1984 with the intent of covering Mehtarlam District and used six 160 kilowatt Czechoslovakian generator sets as the primary power source. The original power cables were subterranean and supplied power to an ice factory, plastics shop, metal fabricators, carpenters and a few residences. During war with the Soviets and under Taliban rule, rocket attacks against ONE of the power plants, stolen parts, and cut cables gradually degraded the system. Makeshift repairs did little to keep the system up and running. ¶17. (U) The PRT has made initial efforts to reconstruct the power grid in Mehtarlam. In May 2006, the preceding PRT KABUL 00001036 005 OF 007 command signed a contract for rebuilding the electric transmission distribution network that will provide 800 homes with power. A new 250 kilovolt CAT diesel and another new 500 kilovolt generator will power the system. In addition to the city system, there are about 100 micro-hydro plants (MHP) in the province built with funding from the PRT, the NSP program, or individual communities. The Mehtarlam project has been slow to take off since the contractor lacks the experience and technical guidance to handle safety issues. With additional PRT funding and technical assistance, the project will add greatly to Mehtarlam's power infrastructure. ¶18. (U) The PRT is addressing the heavy reliance on small individually owned diesel generators for power in the rest of the province. The PRT has completed or started eight MHPs in Laghman; these water driven turbines each generate 15-25 kilowatts and power 25-300 houses. Most residents pay approximately 30-60 Afghanis a month for a light bulb used mostly at night. During the day the channeled water can also be used for operating a grinding mill or hot water tank for washing clothes. In addition to the PRT-provided MHPs, there are a couple of cases, such as the village of Ghaziabad in Alishang District, where private citizens have invested in their own MHPs and charge approximately 60 Afghani per month to power their village from a pair of 7.5 kilovolt systems. This is a model that the PRT is pointing out to other villages as an example of how to keep their MHP profitable and operational once it is up and running. ¶19. (U) In the medium term, Laghman may acquire additional power resources. In 2010, a main power grid from the Surobi Dam is slated to bring power up from Qarghayi District to Mehtarlam. The extent of the transmission line is unknown at this time. Refugee Returns Ebb, Possible Small Surge in 2007 -------------- ¶20. (U) UNHCR-Jalalabad reports that Laghman has aQeady received most of the returnees expected in the province and UNHCR is closing out most of its project activities. From 2002 to October 2006, 648,169 persons or 115,400 families have returned to Laghman. Of this total, 3,501 persons or 569 families returned in 2006 (March-October timeframe). Returnee totals are divided evenly along gender lines. UNHCR anticipates the 2007 closure of two refugee camps in Peshawar that may result in up to 30,000 returnees to the eastern provinces covered by the Jalalabad office. Laghman would be a likely recipient of some portion of this amount. ¶21. (U) UNHCR is phasing out its activity in Laghman in relation to the overall decrease in the returnee rate and plans to end project support in 2007. In 2006, UNHCR coordinated its general support of returnees with the MRRD and provided 340 shelters for returnees throughout Laghman but the majority of assistance focused on projects in Mehtarlam and Qarghayi Districts. UNHCR assistance in these two districts included resettlement of 18 families relocating from Kabul to Qarghayi, a beekeeping project for income generation, food distribution, two school tents, a protection wall, and a micro-hydro plant. Women's Issues Need More Attention -------------- ¶22. (U) Provincial government interest in promoting women's affairs remains a low priority. The Director of Women's Affairs lacks capacity to plan and organize projects and was sent by Kabul-based officials without a program budget and told to approach the PRT for resources. Outreach from the PRT military officer for humanitarian affairs is ONE of the only sources of assistance and mentoring support in the last year. Recent activities include DAI (USAID implementing partner) funded English training classes for KABUL 00001036 006 OF 007 female employees of the Department of Women's Affairs, a skills training program supported by Afghan Blind Migration, and a celebration of International Woman's Day. However, the province needs effective leadership and additional funding to create more opportunities in this area. Media Outreach Will Expand With New Radio Transmitters -------------- - ¶23. (U) Radio, television, and print media exist to varying degrees in Laghman. The province has ONE 150 watt transmitter (97.2 FM) that operates for six hours a day and offers music and limited newscasts developed at the provincial level; there are no rebroadcasts of Kabul programs. Current transmissions cover only the central portion of Laghman although listeners can receive broadcasts from neighboring provinces depending on location. Residents in the Najil area of the upper Alishang district told PRToff that they cannot receive radio transmissions for example. A USD 350,000 CERP project will expand radio coverage by adding two 500 watt transmitters and broadcast center building in Mehtarlam and repeaters in Alishang and Dawlet Shah Districts by April ¶2007. ONE of the transmitters will be government owned; the other will be an independent radio station. (Comment: Governor Mangal debuted a weekly call-in radio show on January 29, a welcome development since he has not been using this resource to communicate his vision for the province or progress on security or reconstruction efforts. End Comment.) ¶24. (U) Television and especially print media remain underdeveloped and provincial directors lack capacity to marshal resources to widen their use. Television from Kabul is rebroadcast for two hours a day and there is widespread interest in watching. Print media is nearly nonexistent; the government produces about 1000 copies of the provincial newspaper two times per month, Alingar District issues an occasional magazine, and Mehtarlam has an occasional paper aimed at young adults. Printing services are contracted in Kabul and Jalalabad due to the lack of printing presses in the province. The Directors of Radio/TV and Information/Culture do not have sufficient capacity to develop media resources or communication strategies. Governor Mangal would like to replace them. Comment -------------- ¶25. (U) There is good reason to be cautiously optimistic about the future of Laghman province Governor Mangal is a positive influence and new capacity building efforts will likely improve the effectiveness of the PDC, subject to the constraints posed by a lack of financial resources and authority. The noticeable lack of NGO presence needs attention and is a potential significant source of funding and capacity building, particularly in the areas of women's affairs, health, and education. Laghman's agrarian economy has potential to expand and provide job growth. New infrastructure and investment are vital to maintain gains in counterinsurgency efforts. Laghman's population is telling us that jobs are their main concern, not security, but the province needs to maintain the current reduction from the 2006 threat level to allow reconstruction to progress rapidly and extend the reach of the government to remote areas. PRT efforts to train the ANA and ANP and build their professional image are vital in this regard. The population residing nearby specific development projects appears grateful. However, more could be done to build general awareness of the total ISAF and GoA effort throughout the province. Governor Mangal's recent radio outreach is a step in the right direction but we should seek out opportunities to advertise successes through public speaking and media outreach. KABUL 00001036 007 OF 007 NEUMANN