SHIKAKI: ABU MAZEN NEEDS PEACE PROCESS SUCCESS

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001846 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS KDEM KPAL KMPI SUBJECT: SHIKAKI: ABU MAZEN NEEDS PEACE PROCESS SUCCESS QUICKLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Khalil Shikaki, head of the Center for Palestine for Research and Studies (CPRS) told Staffdel Talwar that PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) needs tangible success in the planned November international meeting to deter reconciliation with Hamas. End Summary Abu Mazen Needs Peace Process Success Quickly -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In an August 18, meeting Khalil Shikaki, head of the Center for Palestine for Research and Studies (CPRS) told Staffdel Talwar that Hamas' take over of Gaza has brought about a desperate situation that calls into question whether Palestinians can manage their own political affairs, pursue democratic processes, and achieve peace. According to Shikaki, for PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and the current government to navigate this situation successfully, they need agreement on a framework of principles with Israel that includes tangible outcomes from the planned November international meeting. Shikaki said Abu Mazen wants this meeting to produce an agreement on a 10 page detailed framework on permanent status issues and yield tangible benefits. He said it would be "a stroke of genius" if the meeting produces a release of prisoners including Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti and Barghouti attends the next Arab Summit to support the framework agreement. ¶3. (SBU) Shikaki, believes that Abu Mazen will call for early elections following the December donor committee meeting and that these elections would be held in the spring as a referendum on permanent status issues. Shikaki said he believes that 60 percent of the Palestinian public will endorse an Palestinian-Israeli agreement that includes 100 percent of the West Bank with territorial swaps, sovereignty of the Haram al Sharif, and recognition of the right of return along the lines of UN General Assembly Resolution 194 and that people are prepared to accept Israeli sovereignty over Jewish East Jerusalem and settlement blocs that make up 3-4 percent of the West Bank. ¶4. (SBU) Without progress in November, Shikaki warned, Fatah will collapse and Abu Mazen will have to return to negotiations with Hamas. Shikaki said there is "no doubt" that Abu Mazen will go back to dialogue with Hamas in six months, it is just a question of the terms. According to Shikaki, Fatah,s success and failure are tied to a peace agreement with Israel, and Palestinians will support Fatah, because of the movement's perceived ability to deliver a peace settlement, build a state and provide stability. Hamas -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Shikaki told Staffdel Talwar that Hamas expects the November meeting to fail without needing to take any steps to undermine it and is focusing its efforts on demonstrating responsible governance in Gaza and consolidating its West Bank assets. Hamas's goal, according to Shikaki, is to show that Fatah security services were responsible for the previous lawlessness in Gaza. Shikaki also said Hamas does not want to draw Israel into Gaza and does not have to prove its "resistance credentials" vis--vis Fatah by constantly fighting Israel. Government,s Performance -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Shikaki said the government must be perceived as trying to meet the humanitarian needs of Gazans and not as complicit in closing them off. He noted that CPRS, next poll will be on the credibility of the government. ¶7. (SBU) Staffdel Talwar cleared on this cable. DUFFY