ABU MAZEN LIKELY TO DECREE CHANGES TO LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001691 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS. L FOR JONATHAN SCHWARTZ/LINDA JACOBSON. E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017 TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KPAL IS SUBJECT: ABU MAZEN LIKELY TO DECREE CHANGES TO LEGISLATIVE AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is expected to issue a decree amending the 2005 elections law. According to a draft obtained by Post, the decree will change the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent proportional representative for legislative and presidential elections, make the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem a single constituency, and require all presidential and PLC candidates to accept the PLO platform. The unsigned draft also requires the winning presidential candidate to obtain 51 percent of the vote and each party running in PLC elections to win a minimum of two percent of the total vote to obtain seats. Sources in the President's office say that most political factions support these amendments, but that Hamas is expected to reject them. The Central Elections Commission (CEC) told PolOffs that it is prepared to administer presidential and PLC elections and will present Abu Mazen technical comments on August 16. Abu Mazen mandated the adoption of a full proportional representation system for all PLO elections in a separate August 11 decree. End Summary. Changing the Electoral System -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 14, Secretary General of the PA Cabinet Saadi al-Krunz told the press that Abu Mazen is expected to amend the 2005 election law by decree to mandate the adoption of a full proportional representation system for presidential and legislative elections. Later that day, ConGen political specialist saw a draft that would include four articles. -- First, the electoral system will be 100 percent proportional representative with the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem as a single electoral constituency, rather than a mixed system with sixteen constituencies. -- Second, all presidential and PLC candidates must recognize the PLO as the sole, legitimate representative of the Palestinian people and accept the 1988 Palestinian National Congress-approved PLO Declaration of Independence and the PA Basic Law. (Note: It is unclear if this provision will encompass acceptance of all subsequent PLO-Israel agreements, including the 1993 Rabin-Arafat mutual recognition exchange of letters. End Note). -- Third, a presidential candidate must obtain 51 percent of the vote to win. In the case of no absolute majority, a second round of presidential elections will be held within fifteen days between the two candidates with the most votes. -- Fourth, each political party running in PLC elections must meet the minimum threshold of two percent of the vote to obtain seats in the PLC. (Note: Smaller political factions, like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP),are pushing Abu Mazen to change this number to 1.5 percent to increase their likelihood of winning seats. End Note). Support for Decrees from Most Factions, But Not All -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to sources in the President's office, Abu Mazen has used the last three weeks to obtain buy-in from most political factions, including the PFLP, DFLP, Palestinian People's Party (PPP),and the Palestinian Democratic Union (FIDA),for his proposed electoral changes. ¶4. (C) Numerous Palestinian political contacts anticipate Hamas will reject the amendments and argue that they must be approved by the PLC. Hamas PLC member Yahya Mousa told the press that there can be no early elections without national consensus and that Hamas will view any changes to the 2005 elections law as invalid. Second deputy speaker of the PLC Hassan Khreisheh (Independent) told press that Abu Mazen does not have the power to change the elections law and that only the PLC, elected by the Palestinian people, has the right to legislate. Early Elections Not Likely -------------- ¶5. (C) On August 14, al-Krunz told the press that he expects Abu Mazen to call for early elections upon signing the amended law. However, sources close to the President uniformly say privately that Abu Mazen will not call for early elections anytime soon. Similarly, PM Fayyad told a JERUSALEM 00001691 002 OF 002 group of Congressional Representatives led by Steny Hoyer (D-MD) that there is no serious thought of holding early elections in the near future. CEC Ready for Elections -------------- ¶6. (C) CEC Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail told PolOffs that Abu Mazen will face a legal challenge from Hamas and that elections are impossible unless all parties, including Hamas agree. Kuhail added that the CEC cannot operate in Gaza with Hamas in control and doubts CEC staff there could function under current circumstances. He noted, however, that the full proportional representation system will be easier for the CEC to administer. According to IFES Chief of Party, Vladimir Pran, the CEC will present Abu Mazen its technical opinion on the feasibility of holding early elections on August 16. PLO Elections -------------- ¶7. (C) Abu Mazen issued an August 11 decree mandating full proportional representation for all PLO elections, including student and women's organizations, professional syndicates, and labor unions. A legal advisor in the Preident's office told ConGen political specialist that he believes Abu Mazen has no plans to hold PLO elections in the near future. WALLES