ABU MAZEN LIKELY TO DECREE CHANGES TO LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001691

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/WATERS. L FOR
JONATHAN SCHWARTZ/LINDA JACOBSON.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2017
TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KPAL IS
SUBJECT: ABU MAZEN LIKELY TO DECREE CHANGES TO LEGISLATIVE
AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is
expected to issue a decree amending the 2005 elections law.
According to a draft obtained by Post, the decree will change
the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent proportional
representative for legislative and presidential elections,
make the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem a single constituency,
and require all presidential and PLC candidates to accept the
PLO platform. The unsigned draft also requires the winning
presidential candidate to obtain 51 percent of the vote and
each party running in PLC elections to win a minimum of two
percent of the total vote to obtain seats. Sources in the
President's office say that most political factions support
these amendments, but that Hamas is expected to reject them.
The Central Elections Commission (CEC) told PolOffs that it
is prepared to administer presidential and PLC elections and
will present Abu Mazen technical comments on August 16. Abu
Mazen mandated the adoption of a full proportional
representation system for all PLO elections in a separate
August 11 decree. End Summary.

Changing the Electoral System
--------------


2. (C) On August 14, Secretary General of the PA Cabinet
Saadi al-Krunz told the press that Abu Mazen is expected to
amend the 2005 election law by decree to mandate the adoption
of a full proportional representation system for presidential
and legislative elections. Later that day, ConGen political
specialist saw a draft that would include four articles.

-- First, the electoral system will be 100 percent
proportional representative with the West Bank, Gaza and
Jerusalem as a single electoral constituency, rather than a
mixed system with sixteen constituencies.

-- Second, all presidential and PLC candidates must recognize
the PLO as the sole, legitimate representative of the
Palestinian people and accept the 1988 Palestinian National
Congress-approved PLO Declaration of Independence and the PA
Basic Law. (Note: It is unclear if this provision will
encompass acceptance of all subsequent PLO-Israel agreements,
including the 1993 Rabin-Arafat mutual recognition exchange
of letters. End Note).

-- Third, a presidential candidate must obtain 51 percent of
the vote to win. In the case of no absolute majority, a
second round of presidential elections will be held within
fifteen days between the two candidates with the most votes.

-- Fourth, each political party running in PLC elections must
meet the minimum threshold of two percent of the vote to
obtain seats in the PLC. (Note: Smaller political factions,
like the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)
and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine
(DFLP),are pushing Abu Mazen to change this number to 1.5
percent to increase their likelihood of winning seats. End
Note).

Support for Decrees from Most Factions, But Not All
-------------- --------------


3. (C) According to sources in the President's office, Abu
Mazen has used the last three weeks to obtain buy-in from
most political factions, including the PFLP, DFLP,
Palestinian People's Party (PPP),and the Palestinian
Democratic Union (FIDA),for his proposed electoral changes.


4. (C) Numerous Palestinian political contacts anticipate
Hamas will reject the amendments and argue that they must be
approved by the PLC. Hamas PLC member Yahya Mousa told the
press that there can be no early elections without national
consensus and that Hamas will view any changes to the 2005
elections law as invalid. Second deputy speaker of the PLC
Hassan Khreisheh (Independent) told press that Abu Mazen does
not have the power to change the elections law and that only
the PLC, elected by the Palestinian people, has the right to
legislate.

Early Elections Not Likely
--------------


5. (C) On August 14, al-Krunz told the press that he
expects Abu Mazen to call for early elections upon signing
the amended law. However, sources close to the President
uniformly say privately that Abu Mazen will not call for
early elections anytime soon. Similarly, PM Fayyad told a

JERUSALEM 00001691 002 OF 002


group of Congressional Representatives led by Steny Hoyer
(D-MD) that there is no serious thought of holding early
elections in the near future.

CEC Ready for Elections
--------------


6. (C) CEC Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail told
PolOffs that Abu Mazen will face a legal challenge from Hamas
and that elections are impossible unless all parties,
including Hamas agree. Kuhail added that the CEC cannot
operate in Gaza with Hamas in control and doubts CEC staff
there could function under current circumstances. He noted,
however, that the full proportional representation system
will be easier for the CEC to administer. According to IFES
Chief of Party, Vladimir Pran, the CEC will present Abu Mazen
its technical opinion on the feasibility of holding early
elections on August 16.

PLO Elections
--------------


7. (C) Abu Mazen issued an August 11 decree mandating full
proportional representation for all PLO elections, including
student and women's organizations, professional syndicates,
and labor unions. A legal advisor in the Preident's office
told ConGen political specialist that he believes Abu Mazen
has no plans to hold PLO elections in the near future.
WALLES