CEC READY FOR ELECTIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001571

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR WATERS/ABRAMS/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017
TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KDEM KPAL IS
SUBJECT: CEC READY FOR ELECTIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM
ANYTIME SOON

REF: JERUSALEM 00532

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In a July 23 meeting, Central Elections
Commission (CEC) Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail told
PolOffs that the CEC is prepared to administer presidential
and PLC elections, but the situation in Gaza creates major
obstacles. Kuhail predicted that Fatah -- but not Hamas --
would support PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in
changing the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent
proportional representative. Kuhail said he wants the
Ministry of Local Government to act soon to set boundaries
for municipal electoral districts. In a separate meeting
IFES Chief of Party commented that any changes to electoral
districts is a political, vice technical, process and said
IFES will resume training and capacity building for the CEC.
End Summary.

Presidential and PLC Elections
--------------


2. (C) Central Elections Commission (CEC) Chief Electoral
Officer Hisham Kuhail told PolOffs July 23 that the CEC is
ready to implement a decree by PA President Mahmoud Abbas
(Abu Mazen) calling early elections. However, he said, the
situation in Gaza will create major obstacles. "Announcing
elections without resolving the situation on the ground will
be suicidal," said Kuhail. He said the CEC cannot operate in
Gaza with Hamas in power, and he doubts CEC staff there could
function under current circumstances. Furthermore, he said,
presidential and PLC elections cannot be held unless all
parties, including Hamas in Gaza, agree to be involved in the
process.


3. (C) Kuhail foresees additional problems if Abu Mazen
changes the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent
proportional representational and faces a legal challenge
from Hamas. Kuhail said he thinks Hamas would object to the
change. However, he noted the new system would be easier for
the CEC to administer.

Defining Boundaries for Municipal Elections
--------------


4. (C) Kuhail said the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG)
has the legal authority to set the boundaries of the 62
municipal electoral districts that have not held municipal
elections. However, he suggested the MoLG should work with
the Ministries of Interior and Planning and the Central
Bureau of Statistics to develop a method to delineate
electoral districts. He said the CEC can help "synchronize
the system" but the MoLG has not requested help. Kuhail
suggested that the CEC acquire a GIS system to focus
boundaries around voting centers. Kuhail warned, however, of
the potential impact of changing boundaries.


5. (C) In a separate July 25 meeting, newly-appointed IFES
Chief of Party Vladimir Pran agreed that setting boundaries
is fundamentally a political, not technical matter. However,
he noted that local challenges to administrative boundaries
will result from family and clan allegiances as much as to
Fatah and Hamas rivalries.

Voter Registration and Update Drive
--------------


6. (C) Kuhail said the CEC's March-April voter drive
registered 61,400 new voters, well short of the expected
100,000. He noted as of April 1, 2007, there were 1,392,232
total registrants with 847,647 in the West Bank and 544,558
in Gaza. Kuhail acknowledged little public interest in voter
registration. Pointing to the 76 percent voter participation
in the 2006 PLC elections, Kuhail said Palestinians vote, but
are unconcerned about voter registration. He added that high
voter turnout in the 2006 PLC elections was not because of
voter awareness, but because of the great interest in the
2006 elections. He said no one is certain of voter turn out
if elections were held now. Kuhail predicted that voter
participation would be low because "people don't like the
choices and feel hostage to Fatah and Hamas."

CEC: Budget, Staffing, Training
--------------


7. (C) Kuhail said the CEC is trying to lower operating
costs outside of electoral events by cutting staff and
reducing offices. He projected that administering
presidential and PLC elections simultaneously would cost

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roughly $10 million and the fifth round of municipal
elections $1.7 million. (Note: The CEC spent $6 million on
the 2006 PLC elections. End Note).


8. (C) IFES Chief of Party Vladimir Pran told PolOffs July
25 that IFES plans to organize training for the CEC,
including observing elections abroad. He noted that the CEC
is well-regarded by the international community, but has a
mixed record on transparency and poor capacity for budgeting
and financial reporting.
WALLES