CEC READY FOR ELECTIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001571 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR WATERS/ABRAMS/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017 TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KDEM KPAL IS SUBJECT: CEC READY FOR ELECTIONS BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM ANYTIME SOON REF: JERUSALEM 00532 Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. In a July 23 meeting, Central Elections Commission (CEC) Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail told PolOffs that the CEC is prepared to administer presidential and PLC elections, but the situation in Gaza creates major obstacles. Kuhail predicted that Fatah -- but not Hamas -- would support PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in changing the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent proportional representative. Kuhail said he wants the Ministry of Local Government to act soon to set boundaries for municipal electoral districts. In a separate meeting IFES Chief of Party commented that any changes to electoral districts is a political, vice technical, process and said IFES will resume training and capacity building for the CEC. End Summary. Presidential and PLC Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) Central Elections Commission (CEC) Chief Electoral Officer Hisham Kuhail told PolOffs July 23 that the CEC is ready to implement a decree by PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) calling early elections. However, he said, the situation in Gaza will create major obstacles. "Announcing elections without resolving the situation on the ground will be suicidal," said Kuhail. He said the CEC cannot operate in Gaza with Hamas in power, and he doubts CEC staff there could function under current circumstances. Furthermore, he said, presidential and PLC elections cannot be held unless all parties, including Hamas in Gaza, agree to be involved in the process. ¶3. (C) Kuhail foresees additional problems if Abu Mazen changes the electoral system from mixed to 100 percent proportional representational and faces a legal challenge from Hamas. Kuhail said he thinks Hamas would object to the change. However, he noted the new system would be easier for the CEC to administer. Defining Boundaries for Municipal Elections -------------- ¶4. (C) Kuhail said the Ministry of Local Government (MoLG) has the legal authority to set the boundaries of the 62 municipal electoral districts that have not held municipal elections. However, he suggested the MoLG should work with the Ministries of Interior and Planning and the Central Bureau of Statistics to develop a method to delineate electoral districts. He said the CEC can help "synchronize the system" but the MoLG has not requested help. Kuhail suggested that the CEC acquire a GIS system to focus boundaries around voting centers. Kuhail warned, however, of the potential impact of changing boundaries. ¶5. (C) In a separate July 25 meeting, newly-appointed IFES Chief of Party Vladimir Pran agreed that setting boundaries is fundamentally a political, not technical matter. However, he noted that local challenges to administrative boundaries will result from family and clan allegiances as much as to Fatah and Hamas rivalries. Voter Registration and Update Drive -------------- ¶6. (C) Kuhail said the CEC's March-April voter drive registered 61,400 new voters, well short of the expected 100,000. He noted as of April 1, 2007, there were 1,392,232 total registrants with 847,647 in the West Bank and 544,558 in Gaza. Kuhail acknowledged little public interest in voter registration. Pointing to the 76 percent voter participation in the 2006 PLC elections, Kuhail said Palestinians vote, but are unconcerned about voter registration. He added that high voter turnout in the 2006 PLC elections was not because of voter awareness, but because of the great interest in the 2006 elections. He said no one is certain of voter turn out if elections were held now. Kuhail predicted that voter participation would be low because "people don't like the choices and feel hostage to Fatah and Hamas." CEC: Budget, Staffing, Training -------------- ¶7. (C) Kuhail said the CEC is trying to lower operating costs outside of electoral events by cutting staff and reducing offices. He projected that administering presidential and PLC elections simultaneously would cost JERUSALEM 00001571 002 OF 002 roughly $10 million and the fifth round of municipal elections $1.7 million. (Note: The CEC spent $6 million on the 2006 PLC elections. End Note). ¶8. (C) IFES Chief of Party Vladimir Pran told PolOffs July 25 that IFES plans to organize training for the CEC, including observing elections abroad. He noted that the CEC is well-regarded by the international community, but has a mixed record on transparency and poor capacity for budgeting and financial reporting. WALLES