NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE POLL FROM GAZA AND

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001562 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, MEPI AND IPA. NSC FOR ABRAMS/WATERS/SINGH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMPI KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM KPAL IS SUBJECT: NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE POLL FROM GAZA AND THE WEST BANK ¶1. Summary. According to a July 8 - 15 National Democratic Institute (NDI) poll, Palestinians disapprove of the Hamas takeover in Gaza, support early PLC and Presidential elections, want to see Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, and believe that Fatah is reforming itself. Marwan Barghouthi is the political figure respondants viewed most favorably, with Mustafa Bargouthi, Salaam Fayyad, Mahmoud Abbas, and Ismail Haniyeh all enjoying significant support as well. End Summary. ¶2. From July 8-15, NDI conducted a poll in Gaza and the West Bank to identify popular views on key political issues following Hamas' takeover of Gaza. NDI is implementing a Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) program focused on political party reform and this poll will inform programming and future focus groups. Through Alpha, a local polling firm, 1000 Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank were contacted by phone. The sample size disproportionately represented Gazans. ¶3. Full poll data divided by districts and with cross tabulation by gender and age was emailed to NEA/IPA and NEA/PI. Below are some of the poll,s key findings: - 73 percent of those polled hold a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" view of Abu Mazen; 94 percent for Marwan Barghouthi; 90 percent for Mustafa Barghouthi; 76 percent for Salam Fayyad; 63 percent for Ismael Hania; and 51 percent for Khaled Meshal; - 75 percent of those polled support early PLC elections and 76 percent support early Presidential elections. A significant portion of those polled (36 percent) would vote for a third party if elections were held today. 42 percent support Fatah, and 20 percent support Hamas. - 61 percent of those polled say the emergency government is legal (32 percent do not); 61 percent support the emergency government (36 percent do not) - 78.5 percent of those polled disapprove of the way Hamas gained control of Gaza. 75 percent want to see Fatah and Hamas begin unconditional negotiations with each other. 54 percent do not think the emergency government will be able to resolve the situation in Gaza. - 66 percent of those polled believe that Fatah is in the process of reforming itself. - 23.5 percent of those polled support a two-state solution, 7.5 percent support a bi-national state, and 65 percent support "a Palestinian state on all the Palestinian land." - 41 percent of those polld believe that Hamas is committed to fighting coruption while 30 percent think that Fatah is commtted to fighting corruption. 48 percent think thatFatah will improve their quality of life, 24 perent believe that Hamas will, and 17 percent thin that no one will. ¶4. Comment: This was a telepone poll, and there are no local studies on the ipact of that bias on the data. In addition, in NI,s words, "there are no neutral pollsters in Paestine." Multiple questioners were involved in asing the poll's questions and there is no way of nowing what sort of inflection was used in asking questions, etc. There are significant conflicts n the polling data (approval of leaders for examle). As with all polling data in the West Bank ad Gaza, we recommend that the results be viewed wih caution. WALLES