BURMA -- INDONESIA LIKELY TO RATIFY ASEAN CHARTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003367 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS NSC FOR E. PHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ID BM SUBJECT: BURMA -- INDONESIA LIKELY TO RATIFY ASEAN CHARTER DESPITE MISGIVINGS REF: A. STATE 164897 ¶B. JAKARTA 3264 ¶C. JAKARTA 3239 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Per Ref A, Mission continues to press key executive and legislative interlocutors--as well as prominent figures outside of government--regarding Burma and the ASEAN Charter. Our contacts generally agree that some members of the legislature are likely to voice strong, public criticism of Burma as it debates the Charter, but that ultimately it will approve the document. It seems possible that a public DPR statement or reservation of some sort on Burma might be released at the time the Charter is ratified. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) GOI PUSHING CHARTER: Pol/C delivered Ref A points to Gudadi Sasongko, the Deputy Director for East Asia-Pacific Affairs at the Department of Foreign Affairs (DEPLU) on December 10. Pol/C stressed that all ASEAN members should adhere to the Charter's principles on human rights and democracy. Member-states should look for ways to use the Charter review and ratification process to press Burma to undertake needed reforms. Sasongo said he appreciated the USG's views on the matter and would consider them as the GOI moved forward. He said it was not yet clear how the Yudhoyono administration would engage the legislature regarding ratification of the Charter, but it was clear the administration would press for ratification as soon as possible. ¶3. (C) LEGISLATURE LIKELY TO RATIFY: Pol/C also raised the matter with Arif Budiman, a key staffer to Agung Laksono, the Speaker of Indonesia's national assembly (DPR). Noting the DPR's strong stance regarding reform in Burma, Pol/C urged Indonesian legislators to use the Charter ratification process to continue pressing for progress there. Budiman assured Pol/C that the DPR would thoroughly review the Charter and discuss Burma. He expected the DPR to begin debating the issue in January and thought the Yudhoyono government would push for quick ratification. The DPR, he believed, would ultimately ratify the Charter despite some members' misgivings re Burma. ¶4. (C) Separately, senior political analyst Dewi Fortuna Anwar of Jakarta's Habibie Center told DCM that feelings re Burma were still strong in the DPR. While legislators would ultimately endorse the Charter, there would likely be a lot of harsh criticism of Burma and of the Yudhoyono administration's response to the crisis, according to Anwar. She said--although it was possible for the DPR to express its reservations about Burma's status in the Charter through some sort of non-binding resolution--such a step would be unprecedented. In a separate meeting, Marzuki Darusman, a member of the DPR's Commission I responsible for foreign affairs, echoed this view. He told the DCM the DPR would likely approve the Charter, but not without some strong criticism of the Burmese regime. The DPR could formally question Yudhoyono administration officials about the Charter--a process referred to here as interpellation--and possibly include a report of the interpellation in the formal legislative record. This would be similar to a reservation, he noted. ¶5. (C) EXTERNAL PRESSURE REMAINS CRITICAL: Dr. Anwar also explained that ASEAN would likely return to "business as usual" with Burma unless ASEAN's major dialogue partners maintained pressure on the organization to take a tougher line. She cautioned, however, that the United States would isolate itself if it pressed the Burma issue alone. Instead, she urged that the USG work with as many ASEAN dialogue partners as possible, and also offered Australia and Japan as potential partners on this issue. ¶6. (C) INDONESIA WANTS TO HELP: Visiting DASD James Clad discussed Burma with a number of prominent Indonesian interlocutors, including: senior political analyst Yusuf Wanandi; retired general Agus Widjoyo; and former foreign minister Ali Alatas. All agreed that Indonesia could play a key role influencing Burma in a positive direction. They JAKARTA 00003367 002 OF 002 argued that Indonesia had become a democracy without "revenge" against former military rulers--an example they hoped could persuade the Burmese generals to move forward with reform. Mission is working to arrange a meeting requested by former FM Alatas with the Ambassador to discuss Indonesia's possible role re Burma. HUME