MAJOR PARTY CHALLENGED BY SPLINTER GROUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003286 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: MAJOR PARTY CHALLENGED BY SPLINTER GROUP REF: A. JAKARTA 3273 ¶B. JAKARTA 2924 ¶C. JAKARTA 2540 ¶D. JAKARTA 1972 JAKARTA 00003286 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b-d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A new party formed by defectors from former president Megawati's PDI-P party is gaining some traction. The party--which goes by the acronym PDP--could damage PDI-P's chances in the 2009 national elections. Megawati and company--concerned about the future of their party, which has been one of the country's most powerful--are feeling some heat and are fighting back. END SUMMARY. BOLTING A MAJOR PARTY ¶2. (C) One of Indonesia's most powerful political parties has a problem. In December 2005, shortly after former president Megawati was re-elected chair of the Party of Democratic Struggle-Indonesia (PDI-P),a group of former supporters decided to strike out on their own. In taking the plunge, the defectors were basically disillusioned by what they felt were Megawati's poor leadership skills. So committed were some members of the group that several lost their parliamentary seats as a result--Indonesian parties reserve the right to recall members for disloyalty. Led by former legislator Roy Janis and former minister Laksamana Sukardi, the PDI-P exiles decided to establish a party that they said would conform more closely to former president Sukarno's "progressive" vision for Indonesia. (Note: Megawati is the daughter of the charismatic former president.) ¶3. (C) The new political grouping is called the Democratic Renewal Party (PDP). Its political agenda is similar to PDIP's in that it is secular and nationalist with a touch of left populism. According to contacts, one-third of the party's membership ranks is comprised of PDI-P defectors, one-third comes from other political parties, and one-third of PDP supporters are first-time political party members. Some PDP members have suggested the party may have as many as two million party members by 2009, which would be a considerable number. PICKING UP TRACTION ¶4. (C) The new party seems to be gaining momentum. According to PDP Chair Roy Janis, the party's growth has exceeded everyone's expectations. Janis told poloff that PDP had �0A;established a strong presence in each of the country's 33 provinces, and burrowed down to the district and sub-district levels elsewhere. More importantly, according to Janis, PDP had successfully "taken over" PDI-P's support base in Central Java, to the point that PDI-P--which had been a powerhouse in the area--no longer had a meaningful foothold. On this point, Pol/C--who recently visited Semarang, the capital of Central Java (Ref A)--was told that PDI-P was in such disarray in the area that it had failed to choose a candidate for the upcoming governor's race, although other parties have done so and are already moving forward with their campaigns. ¶5. (C) PDP could be on the cusp of netting more support. Janis told poloff that PDP's impressive sprint out of the gates had not gone unnoticed in Jakarta political circles either. Of PDI-P's 109 legislators in the national parliament (DPR),Janis claimed that no less that 40 had already approached him to inquire about potentially defecting to PDP. MEGAWATI'S MEGA CHALLENGE ¶6. (C) Megawati and her backers are feeling some heat. While most PDI-P contacts deny that PDP poses a serious political threat to the party, PDI-P's actions suggest otherwise. In what has been universally interpreted as an act of political vengeance against PDP, several PDI-P legislators have moved in recent weeks to re-open a long dormant corruption case against PDP official Laksamana Sukardi dating back to his JAKARTA 00003286 002.2 OF 002 time as a minister during the Megawati administration. Most political analyses and media reports of the case have portrayed the effort as wholly politically motivated. ¶7. (C) According to Sukardi, friends in the PDI-P camp told him that the corruption case was resurrected by PDI-P for the exclusive purpose of discrediting him, and by association, PDP. Sukardi told poloff that PDP had emerged as such a clear threat to PDI-P that Megawati and her allies were getting "desperate." While Sukardi readily conceded that he had concerns about how the case might be adjudicated in Indonesia's unpredictable judicial environment, he was confident that PDI-P's move would back-fire politically. MAKING IT BIG? ¶8. (C) While PDP has shown signs of developing into a political force, the only tangible way to evaluate the party's influence will come in the 2009 legislative elections. The fact that PDI-P has resurrected a questionable corruption cQe against one of PDP's most prominent figures speaks volumes about the party's perceived rise. That said, PDP's success is by no means assured: the Indonesian political landscape is littered with defunct parties that started with promise, but failed miserably at the polling booth. HUME