NORTH MALUKU -- WINNER NAMED IN ELECTION; ETHNIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003236 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, DRL/PHD, EAP/ANP NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC ID SUBJECT: NORTH MALUKU -- WINNER NAMED IN ELECTION; ETHNIC TENSIONS FLARE REF: JAKARTA 3224 AND PREVIOUS JAKARTA 00003236 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4 (b-d). ¶1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate General Surabaya. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY: Three days after overturning the result of the gubernatorial election in North Maluku province in Eastern Indonesia, the National Electoral Commission (KPU) handed victory to opposition candidate Abdul Gafur, an experienced pol. Police have tightened security in the provincial capital in anticipation of possible ethnic-based clashes between supporters of Gafur and the incumbent governor. While North Maluku is a small, relatively remote province, the specter of ethnic clashes and poor electoral administration resonate as serious problems for Jakarta. END SUMMARY. UPSET IN THE SPICE ISLANDS ¶3. (C) Jakarta has picked a winner in a controversial election. On November 22, the national electoral commission announced that Golkar party candidate, Abdul Gafur, had won North Maluku province's first ever direct gubernatorial election. The election took place on November 3 under a cloud of controversy created by the local KPU branch's alleged favoritism for the incumbent governor, who was expected to win the race. KPU earlier in the week overturned a narrow victory in favor of Thaib and--in an unprecedented move--took charge of the vote recount process in Jakarta. The swift intervention, which handed victory to Gafur by less than 3,000 votes, came three days before the end of Thaib's term in office. ¶4. (C) The Jakarta-based recount was witnessed by officials representing each of the four candidates that contested the election, as well as members of the local electoral commission and the election supervisory commission. Thaib's representative, Saiful Ahmad, refused to sign the final verdict. Endang Sulastri, one of the seven newly installed KPU commissioners, who attended the November 22 session, told poloff that KPU's intervention was justified under article 122 paragraph 3 of the 2007 election law (UU 22, 2007),which allows for national intervention if the local electoral board cannot carry out its duties. Saiful Ahmad has indicated that Thaib's camp will likely appeal the case to the Supreme Court on the grounds that the national KPU did not have the right to annul the result of the local commission. TENSION IN PARADISE ¶5. (C) Security forces are on alert for possible communal violence in North Maluku. Police in the provincial capital of Ternate tightened security in anticipation of clashes between supporters of Thaib (who is supported by the Makian ethnic group) and Gafur (who is supported by most of the other ethnic groups) by setting up roadblocks across the city. As of November 23, local press indicated the situation remained calm and only small demonstrations were underway. Thaib's supporters have staged several moderate sized demonstrations in Ternate and Jakarta, but have not been involved in any violent incidents. Observers report that ethnic-based tensions are flaring, however. HE'S EXPERIENCED ¶6. (C) Gafur, the winner as of this point, is an experienced pol. For him, the KPU decision represents a bit of redemption. In 2002, Gafur was elected governor by the provincial assembly, only to have the result overturned due to alleged money politics. Then President Megawati installed Thaib instead. ¶7. (SBU) Born in 1939 on Halmahera, the largest island in North Maluku, Gafur is a member of the Golkar old guard. A student leader in the 1960s, Gafur led demonstrations against JAKARTA 00003236 002.2 OF 002 then President Sukarno that helped bring Suharto to power. Gafur first served in government in 1972 as a member of the military's parliamentary faction. In the 1980s, he became Indonesia's first ever Minister for Youth and Sports. After failing to win the governorship in 2002, Gafur was elected to parliament in the 2004 general election. REVERBERATIONS ¶8. (C) North Maluku is a small, relatively remote province. Its gubernatorial election--if it had gone smoothly--probably would have received little notice. However, the way the situation has proceeded has sparked two major concerns, which could resonate down the line. First, as an ethnically-divided area, the election has raised real fears of communal violence. The region has recovered strongly from the ethno-religious conflict between 1999-2001 that left thousands dead. A relapse would be tragic and very damaging to the region. Second, although the vast majority of Indonesian elections have proceeded smoothly since the advent of democracy, the local body administering this one failed completely in its duties. Jakarta--which has acted responsibly--will have to learn the lessons and move to avoid a repeat elsewhere or further problems could flare. HEFFERN