NORTH MALUKU -- JAKARTA INTERVENES TO RESOLVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, DRL/PHD, EAP/ANP
NSC FOR EPHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC ID
SUBJECT: NORTH MALUKU -- JAKARTA INTERVENES TO RESOLVE
CONTROVERSIAL LOCAL ELECTION

REF: A. JAKARTA 3121

B. JAKARTA 3089

C. JAKARTA 2843

JAKARTA 00003224 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate Surabaya.


2. (C) SUMMARY: The National Electoral Commission (KPU) has
overturned the result of the gubernatorial election in North
Maluku province in eastern Indonesia and suspended three
members of the local electoral body (KPUD). The local body
had earlier ruled in favor of the incumbent governor in the
November 3 election. Controversial decisions in the
electoral arena both before and after the election have
sparked ethnic tensions, and brought hundreds of protesters
to the streets in both North Maluku and Jakarta. KPU expects
to announce the final result by late November. END SUMMARY.

JAKARTA STEPS IN


3. (SBU) Unlike the vast majority of direct gubernatorial
elections that have been conducted successfully since 2005
across Indonesia's 33 provinces, the November 3 election in
North Maluku in eastern Indonesia has been mired in confusion
and controversy. On November 19, the newly-installed KPU,
responsible for overseeing the country's second direct
presidential election in 2009, intervened to overturn a
highly suspect result in favor of the incumbent governor,
Thaib Armayin.


4. (C) Thaib is backed by President Yudhoyono's Democratic
Party and the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party. KPUD on
November 18 had declared Thaib the winner by less than a
thousand votes of a total 620,000 ballots cast. KPU
justified its late-stage intervention by noting procedural
irregularities and alternative vote tabulations from three
sub-districts in West Halmahera, North Maluku. The second
set of data could hand victory to the Golkar party candidate,
Abdul Gafur, a former minister under then president Suharto.


5. (C) The election has been spoiled by allegations of
favoritism and incompetence against the local body, KPUD (Ref
A). Head of the local election oversight committee, Thalib
Hasan, told poloff that he had recommended that the national
electoral body replace the members of KPUD before the
election even took place. The now suspended head of KPUD is
alleged to have aligned himself with the incumbent because
they are both members of the dominant Makian ethnic group.

TURBULENCE


6. (C) The election controversy has sparked large street
protests in Ternate, the provincial capital, and in Jakarta,
by supporters of Thaib and Gafur. Supporters of two other
candidates that are out of the running have also gotten into
the act. Police last week intervened to prevent supporters
of Thaib and the opposing candidates from squaring off
outside the KPUD office building in Ternate, where the KPUD
head--who was assaulted during the campaign period (Ref
B)--had taken refuge on the second floor.


7. (C) The political squabble has redivided the province
along ethnic lines. Communal conflict between the Makian
(who account for about 30 percent of the population) and
other minority ethnic groups left thousands dead between
1999-2001. Police and military in the province are working
to prevent any relapse into communal violence. The Makian
are resented by other ethnic groups for their domination of
the provincial economy and bureaucracy. Thaib is also
faulted for failing to relocate the capital from
Ternate--where the Makian are entrenched--to central
Halmahera, as mandated by the law establishing North Maluku
as a province.

EARLY TRIAL FOR ELECTORAL BODY


JAKARTA 00003224 002.2 OF 002



8. (C) For the KPU, North Maluku presents a significant
challenge. The new KPU commissioners are not highly regarded
(Ref C). One of the commissioners has yet to be installed by
parliament due to an ongoing corruption investigation.
Although late in coming, the intervention appears
well-justified, however. Order has been temporarily restored
to the streets in Ternate. Muhammad Ridha, a law professor
and the director of a local NGO, told poloff that KPU's final
verdict is more likely to be accepted because it is not seen
as partisan, like the KPUD. According to Ridha, a victory
for Thaib could potentially spark violent unrest. A victory
for Gafur--who has pledged to bring more ethnic groups into
government--is probably the best result for stability.

HEFFERN