MCC - INDONESIA'S EDUCATION SPENDING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003137 SIPDIS SIPDIS AIDAC MCC FOR MARIA LONGI DEPT FOR EAP DAS MARCIEL AND EB/IFD DAS DIBBLE AID FOR ANE/AA-KUNDER TREASURY FOR A/S LOWERY AND IA-BAUKOL SINGAPORE FOR SBAKER DEPT PASS USTR FOR WEISEL DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EEB/IFD/ODF - MCC DEPARTMENT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO FOR FINEMAN E.O. 12598: N/A TAGS: EFIN KMCA SCUL PGOV KPAO ID SUBJECT: MCC - INDONESIA'S EDUCATION SPENDING JAKARTA 00003137 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary. The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) requires GOI to report annually a set of indicators, and to provide explanation. This cable explains the challenging methodology in properly capturing education expenditures, as well as issues and progress concerning the sector. We believe the Government of Indonesia is spending over 17% of its budget on education or about 1.96% of GDP in 2007, putting it almost on at par with other developing, as well as some OECD countries. End Summary. Background: Primary vs. Basic Education -------------- ¶2. In 2006, the MCC scorecard for Indonesia showed weak public expenditures on primary education. There was a serious reporting challenge as the values reported to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and MCC, only reflected national expenditure on education and missed the significant portion of sub-national expenditure. The GOI had difficulty isolating expenditure on primary from lower secondary education, because MCC and UNESCO definition's of "primary" education is years one-to-six and is out of synch with GOI's definition of "basic" education of years one-to-nine. Adding to the complexity, five separate sections of the central government are involved in the funding streams affecting education expenditure at various levels: Ministry of National Education (MONE),Ministry of Religious Affairs (MORA),Ministry of Finance (MOF),Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS),and Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA). The magnitude of under-reporting on the MCC indicator because of these challenges was not previously clear. More Accurate Methodology Finds Increased Public Expenditure on Education -------------- ¶3. In 2006, the USAID-funded Decentralized Basic Education (DBE) project developed a model which more accurately represents the total public expenditure on primary education. The more accurate methodology found significant education spending at the local level. The USAID DBE project worked with 26 local governments to identify actual education expenditure and calculated how much of the districts total spending was on education as a whole, and what share within education was specifically on primary education. ¶4. USAID found that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) tracking for the education sector at the sub-national level misses significant portions of de facto education expenditure. In many districts, the largest education cost items are non-discretionary items like paying teachers' salaries and repairing school buildings, but these costs often appear under other sectors, and there is no standardization between districts. For example, costs of school building rehabilitation in one district may appear under the coding "Education Sector" while in another district it may show up in the public works operating unit. Revised 2006 Education Spending -------------- ¶5. The USAID analysis in 2006 confirmed that local governments have significant expenditure on education, and that at the primary education level that was intended by the MCC indicator, expenditure at the sub-national level by provinces and district/city governments actually contributes twice as much as the national expenditure by the two main ministries (MONE and MORA). Therefore any improvement of the tracking of sub-national expenditure would lead to significant increases in the value to be reported in the future to MCC and UNESCO. ¶6. Based on the assessment, USAID assisted GOI to formulate a more accurate estimate of education expenditure to support their reporting to MCC in 2006. As a result of this methodology, a revised estimate of "public expenditure on primary education" for 2006 was reported through USG cables to MCC: 1.70% of GDP from previously reported 0.35%, much closer to the targeted threshold in JAKARTA 00003137 002.2 OF 002 2006 of 2.0%. GOI Exceeds Threshold Criteria: 1.96% of GDP for 2007 -------------- ¶7. In 2007, the National Planning Ministry (BAPPENAS) was again responsible for reporting key indicators to MCC, including the public expenditure on primary education. MONE led the analytical work and followed the approach developed with USAID support. The total public sector education spending for 2007 was USD $150.6 million, with the share for primary $74.9 million. This primary share is 1.96% of 2007 GDP, which is a significant increase from the value the Government of Indonesia reported in 2006. The MCC target threshold for this indicator in 2007 has also changed, actually falling in value to 1.67%. For both of these reasons, the value reported by the Government of Indonesia exceeds the threshold criteria for this key indicator, and Indonesia moved from having one of the lowest reported values to being just above the median. In addition, GOI estimates will likely to increase in the future for another reason. The estimates will include more centrally-administered programs that reside outside MONE and MORA, such as GOI conditional cash transfer program called Program Keluarga Harapan which provides incentives for primary school enrollment. Spending Is On Par With Regional Trends -------------- ¶8. Both the World Bank and USAID have found that even though district governments spend the majority of the total education budget, it is mostly nondiscretionary routine expenditures. In many districts, the largest education cost items are paying teachers' salaries and repairing school buildings. Decentralization formally devolved the responsibilities for education from central level to sub-national level, but majority of development expenditures is still spent by the central government. Despite their large participation in the sector, local governments have little discretion in managing funds and shaping the key education sector decisions. ¶9. Based on our discussion with the World Bank, we conclude that the level of education spending is not significantly below an optimal level relative to the overall national budget. The GOI is spending over 17% of its budget on education, putting it almost on at par with other developing, as well as OECD, countries. Significant differences in educational access and quality across the country remain and effective targeting of additional resources is required to provide lagging district and provinces with sufficient funds to catch up with better performing regions. Indonesia also faces a problem with an oversupply of teachers at the primary level in urban areas, whereas many remote, rural areas have a shortage. HUME