EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003107 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID SUBJECT: EX-GOVERNOR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN SLOW TO GAIN MOMENTUM REF: A. JAKARTA 2776 ¶B. JAKARTA 2540 ¶C. JAKARTA 2674 JAKARTA 00003107 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Ex-Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso made a big splash when he announced he was running for president (the election is in 2009). The former general--who has been actively barnstorming--has thus far failed to make a dent in the polls. Even in the byzantine world of Indonesian politics, some of the reasons purportedly underpinning Sutiyoso's decision to get into the race are particularly strange. With allegations of marital infidelity making the rounds, Sutiyoso's presidential gambit--always considered a long-shot--is hardly leaping out of the gate. END SUMMARY. WAITING FOR TAKEOFF ¶2. (C) While Sutiyoso has been extremely active on the campaign trail since his October 1 presidential announcement, there does not appear to be much to show for it, so far. According to political operative Dadan Irawan, Sutiyoso was not "even registering" on most people's presidential radar screens. Irawan told poloff that he considered Sutiyoso to be a perfect VP candidate, but emphasized that Golkar--the most influential party in the country--did not view him as a legitimate presidential threat (Sutiyoso does not have a political party affiliation). In addition, several respectable Indonesian newspapers have reported that Sutiyoso's national barnstorming tour has not translated into any tangible gains in their polls. The most recent polling by the Indonesian Survey Institute--the most respected polling outfit in the country--puts Sutiyoso at just one percent. TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN? ¶3. (S) Indonesian politics are byzantine in their complexity and reports about why Sutiyoso got into the race underscore that. According to presidential staff aide T.B. Silalahi, then Governor Sutiyoso requested an appointment with President Yudhoyono in late September 2007 to discuss the 2009 presidential race. SBY appointed Silalahi to meet with Sutiyoso. During the meeting, Sutiyoso asked Silalahi for his counsel with a tricky dilemma he was facing. Former President Megawati--who had already announced her candidacy for the 2009 race (Ref B)--wanted Sutiyoso to join her ticket as VP candidate. Sutiyoso, however, was looking for a polite way to say "no"--he just did not want to play second fiddle to Megawati and her husband. ¶4. (S) Silalahi said he encouraged Sutiyoso to run for president himself. If his campaign stumbled, Silalahi told him, SBY wanted Sutiyoso to know that there would be a place for him "on SBY's team." If somehow he was able to win, SBY wanted Sutiyoso to know that he would prefer to be beaten by Sutiyoso over any of the other prospective candidates (they are both former generals who worked together closely while in the military). At a minimum, Silalahi told him, by running for president Sutiyoso would have the perfect excuse for turning down Megawati's invitation to join her ticket. Sutiyoso went on to announce his candidacy for president on October 1. A SCANDAL? ¶5. (S) Reports making the rounds about Sutiyoso also mention a possible scandal. Several Mission contacts report that the biggest obstacle for Sutiyoso may be one that is not even in the public domain yet--allegations of infidelity. In a country where such charges are taken very seriously--see SBY's recent defamation lawsuit over allegations he was married previously (Ref C)--these rumors are considered potentially significant. Now, playing on a bigger stage as a presidential candidate, Sutiyoso's private life could increasingly become subject to greater scrutiny. JAKARTA 00003107 002.2 OF 002 MOMENTUM -- IT'S NEEDED ¶6. (S) As noted in Ref A, Sutiyoso will need to increase significantly his national name recognition in order to have any chance of successfully contesting the presidency. Though he did a relatively effective job as governor of Jakarta for 10 years, Sutiyoso is not well-known beyond the capital. He has time to get his name out with the election well over a year away. That said, if the infidelity rumors go public, Mission contacts believe Sutiyoso's campaign will quickly go on life support. HUME