GOLKAR -- INDONESIA'S LARGEST POLITICAL PARTY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003096

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B
NSC FOR EPHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID
SUBJECT: GOLKAR -- INDONESIA'S LARGEST POLITICAL PARTY
PLOTS ITS PATH

REF: A. JAKARTA 3027

B. JAKARTA 2948

C. STATE 127315

D. JAKARTA 2021

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Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesia's largest political
party--Golkar--will soon hold its leadership conference. The
annual meeting will take place against the backdrop of the
looming 2009 national elections. The party will use the
meeting to discuss the possibility of a Kalla presidential
bid. Though Kalla's influence in the party is robust, he is
not in total control--old and new stars will try to influence
the proceedings. Despite lacking any readily identifiable
ideology beyond patronage and a vague form of
nationalism/secularism, Golkar remains highly influential,
and the annual meeting will go a long way towards bringing
the 2009 elections into focus. END SUMMARY.

EYES ON THE PRIZE


2. (C) Golkar will hold its annual leadership conference in
Jakarta, November 22-25. The conference will involve
hundreds of the party's key leaders and local officials. The
focus will be on the 2009 elections. By all accounts, Vice
President and Golkar Chair Jusuf Kalla's political future has
become the 800-pound gorilla in the room (see Ref B). Even
though the VP's fate may not be completely in the party's
hands, Mission contacts report that Golkar will use the
upcoming conference and subsequent meetings to devise a
unified strategy for the 2009 presidential and legislative
elections, something which is lacking now.


3. (C) While most of Mission's Golkar contacts steadfastly
maintain the VP could run a successful presidential campaign
if he throws his hat into the ring, they also assert the most
pragmatic approach for Golkar might be to target another five
years with Kalla as the VP. Golkar operative Dadan Irawan
told POLOFF that if the party does decide to go the latter
route, Golkar will ask President Yudhoyono for as many as 10
cabinet positions in exchange for continued party support.


VP REINS IN FACTIONS


4. (C) Mission contacts report that VP Chair Kalla--who in
the past has been assailed for lackluster management of
Golkar--has recently asserted firm control over the
factionalized party. Golkar still has at least four major
factions--(1) Kalla's group, (2) Parliamentary Speaker Agung
Laksono's loyalists, (3) Akbar Tandjung's troops, and (4)
Advisory Board Chairman Surya Paloh's small band. The VP,
however, has reportedly brought them to heel, at least for
now. Contacts continue to report that the factions are
divided on the basis of personality and not ideology.


5. (C) According to Dadan Irawan, Kalla won Laksono's loyalty
by intervening in the aftermath of the January 2007 Adam Air
crash near Sulawesi in which all were killed, thereby sparing
Laksono (a founder of the airline) any real scrutiny of any
possible role in Adam Air's poor safety record. Poempida
reported that although Akbar still enjoyed support, he lacked
the power to override Kalla's directives through his proxies.
Surya Paloh, on the other hand, had damaged his reputation
by orchestrating the high profile meetings between Golkar and
PDI-P--the second largest party in the country (Ref D).
According to Dadan Irawan, internal Golkar polling revealed
the meetings with PDI-P hurt the party's popularity.

LURKING IN THE SHADOWS


6. (C) One long-time Golkar politician and faction head
continues to draw attention. Akbar Tandjung, widely
respected as one of the country's most skilled politicians,
could ultimately trump Kalla's best laid plans. According to
Laksono assistant Arief Budiman, Tandjung has worked

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assiduously behind the scenes to position himself as a
possible VP option for SBY. Budiman told POLOFF that if
Tandjung succeeded in becoming the President's VP choice and
then won, the fickle winds of Golkar political loyalty would
quickly adjust back to their former leader (Tandjung was
unceremoniously deposed as Golkar Chair in 2004.) According
to Arief, Tandjung would easily re-gain control of Golkar in
this scenario; Golkar is, after all, first and foremost a
party of power and patronage.

RISING STARS?


7. (C) There are young Golkar politicos out there eager to
make a mark. Golkar Parliamentarian Yuddy Chrisnandi--who is
considered a rising star of sorts--has reportedly drawn the
ire of some of his party colleagues, however. According to
Poempida Hidayatulloh--another young Golkar
up-and-comer--Yuddy had ignored the hierarchy in the party
and angered party officials with his penchant for constant
media showmanship. Dadan Irawan, on the other hand, told
poloff that he viewed Chrisnandi as one of a number of
"rising stars" in the party, though he confirmed that his
media exploits may have antagonized some in Golkar.

GOOD TIMES FOR GOLKAR


8. (C) Of the many interesting political storylines to emerge
since Suharto's fall in 1998, Golkar's continued relevance
undoubtedly ranks as one of the most intriguing. Most
observers assumed that after Suharto was toppled, Golkar
would quickly crumble. The party. however, currently enjoys
the most seats in the DPR, controls the vice presidency, and
has once again emerged as a prohibitive early favorite to
capture the most parliamentary seats in 2009. Despite
lacking any easily identifiable core political ideology
beyond patronage and a vague form of nationalism and
secularism, Golkar still rules the roost, and this month's
party meeting will go a long way towards bringing the 2009
presidential and legislative elections into greater focus.


HUME