PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO'S POLITICAL PROSPECTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 003027 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO'S POLITICAL PROSPECTS REF: A. JAKARTA 2996 ¶B. JAKARTA 2948 ¶C. JAKARTA 2776 ¶D. JAKARTA 2748 ¶E. JAKARTA 2540 JAKARTA 00003027 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: As President Yudhoyono (SBY) moves into the fourth year of his five-year term, his political prospects are strong. His poll numbers remain robust and he can take comfort in knowing that no compelling challengers have emerged yet to contest the 2009 election. Nonetheless, there are clouds on the horizon. An overall solid economic growth rate hides the real problem of grinding poverty. Moreover, critics accuse SBY of indecisiveness and lacking drive. His political machine also remains weak. The smart money--at this very early stage--is still on SBY to win a second term, but re-election is far from certain. END SUMMARY. GOOD POLL NUMBERS ¶2. (U) The latest numbers from Indonesia's most credible polling outfit--the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI)--indicate that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono still enjoys the support of over 50 percent of the Indonesian electorate. According to an October 2007 poll, 58 percent of the Indonesians surveyed expressed support for the President's performance. While those numbers are down from 67 percent this time last year--and are far lower than the 80 percent approval rating SBY enjoyed in 2004--they nevertheless stand as demonstrable evidence that his number one political weapon remains intact--his personal popularity. WHO WILL CHALLENGE SBY? ¶3. (C) Though most Indonesians will tell you that SBY's political position is far from unassailable, Mission contacts, pundits and political operators alike are all hard pressed to name a prospective challenger currently in position to unseat the President. Bearing in mind that there is still plenty of time left until the 2009 presidential primary, it is worth noting that all of the likely challengers have major flaws and questionable prospects. (Note: The dates for the 2009 presidential primary and runoff have not been scheduled yet, but they will likely take place in July and September of 2009, respectively.) SBY may be popular, but right now he derives much of his political mojo from the fact that no towering figures loom on the horizon as competitors. ¶4. (S) The list of prospective opponents for 2009 is relatively short and unimpressive, a recycled lineup of has-beens and long-shot wannabees. It includes: - Former President Megawati: Arguably the only political figure with the potential to mount a legitimate threat, she has stumbled in the opposition and failed to articulate a competing vision for the country. She lost badly to SBY in the 2004 election. She is the only challenger who consistently registers double digits in the polls; she has already thrown her hat in the ring (Ref E). - Ex-Jakarta Governor Sutiyoso: The one fresh face in the race is a former two-term governor of the capital region with a reputation as a firm and assertive leader. His track record managing the unwieldy metropolis of Jakarta, coupled with his deep pockets, make him an intriguing dark horse. He is a relative unknown outside of the capital, however, and the scrutiny of the campaign could invite tough questions about his business relationships (Ref C). - Vice President Jusuf Kalla: He harbors presidential ambitions, but would have a hard time challenging SBY for two fundamental reasons: conventional wisdom holds that only Javanese politicians can win the presidency (Kalla is from South Sulawesi) and he is not nearly as popular as SBY (Ref B). JAKARTA 00003027 002.2 OF 003 - Former General Wiranto: Like former President Megawati, Wiranto is handicapped by the fact that he already lost to SBY. He is also out of power, attached to an unknown political party and dogged by concerns about his human rights track record. He reportedly, however, has a sizeable war chest at his disposal (Ref D). - Former President Abdurrahman Wahid (aka Gus Dur): The enigmatic former president has discussed running again. His own daughter, Yenny Wahid (a former presidential staffer), told poloff she did not even know for certain if he will run. If he does, his candidacy would likely be treated as little more than a novelty act. (Note: People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Chair Hidayat Nur Wahid, former MPR Chair Amien Rais and former Golkar Party Chair and DPR Chair Akbar Tandjung are also all potential candidates. They are considered long-shots at best.) IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID ¶5. (S) In an October 24 meeting with the Ambassador, former President Habibie put his finger on what most people would argue is the President's core political vulnerability--the GOI's inability to meet the average Indonesian's basic needs (Ref A). Despite the fact that Indonesia has experienced three straight years of six percent growth or higher--an impressive track record by almost any measure--the SBY administration has not lowered unemployment or underemployment or lifted the many millions of indigent Indonesians out of poverty. Presidential advisor T.B. Silalahi told poloff on October 22 that "it was only a matter of time" before this economic reality caught up with the President at the polls. THE INDECISIVENESS FACTOR ¶6. (S) The President continues to be dogged by a reputation for excessive caution. Not surprisingly, SBY's opponents cite his deliberate streak as a sign of weakness and trumpet the issue both in private and in the media. Despite the intense scrutiny of this facet of his character by the political classes, the issue does not appear to have resonated publicly, or triggered any sort of meaningful behavioral changes on the part of the President, for that matter. In fact, among many in Java, a deliberate, calm, non-forceful style is considered a plus and a matter of cultural preference. ¶7. (S) Regardless of whether or not the issue has gained any traction politically, SBY's friends and foes seem to agree with the fundamental point of the criticism--SBY takes too long to make decisions and when he does make them, he fails to push actively. SBY's strongest supporters are among his most vocal critics on this score. Advisor T.B. Silalahi has repeatedly complained about this facet of SBY's character in conversations with poloff. The concerns are mirrored by sympathetic journalists, members of the political elite, and longtime Indonesia watchers, all of whom are united by a desire to see the President succeed in his effort to modernize and unify a secular, tolerant Indonesia, and mortified by the possibility SBY may jeopardize this vision through inaction. HIS PARTY REMAINS WEAK ¶8. (C) In 2004, the Democratic Party catapulted from obscurity to prominence with a surprisingly robust showing in the legislative elections, a result that could almost entirely be attributed to the party's affiliation with SBY. He subsequently won the presidential election as a Democratic Party candidate, and party officials eagerly anticipated five years of influence as the ruling party. Now, over three years later, the party has stalled. Poorly-managed, under-funded, and all but neglected by SBY, many observers believe the party could struggle mightily in 2009. ¶9. (C) A weak Democratic Party showing in the 2009 JAKARTA 00003027 003.2 OF 003 legislative elections (likely to take place in April 2009) could leave the President vulnerable. According to the current election law, the only eligible presidential candidates are those nominated by parties, or coalitions, which win either 15 percent of the parliamentary seats, or 20 percent of the overall legislative votes during the 2009 parliamentary election. Though this law will likely be revised to include a more manageable electoral threshold, the President could well find that his party is not strong enough to nominate him in 2009. In such a scenario, SBY would likely be able to enlist the support of other parties eager to back a winner, but would have to make uncomfortable compromises along the way. KEEP THE CORK IN ¶10. (C) More than three years into his term, SBY remains popular, with a deep reservoir of political influence. He has successfully steered his country through a tragic run of natural disasters, presided over a historic peace accord in Aceh, and created the conditions for relative peace and security in the country. He has also demonstrated a strong commitment to a reform agenda, as evidenced by his solid track record on appointments. He is far from invincible however, and a continued failure to demonstrate real progress on poverty reduction could make him vulnerable. At this late stage, he has shown no real effort to tackle this problem. Furthermore, in the event his numbers do begin to go south, his admirable desire to steer clear of money politics leaves him without a political safety net. That said, he is blessed with relatively weak opponents lacking any discernible plan of action for the country. HUME