"I AM READY" -- MEGAWATI SAYS SHE IS RUNNING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 002540 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID SUBJECT: "I AM READY" -- MEGAWATI SAYS SHE IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AGAIN REF: A. JAKARTA 2474 ¶B. 06 JAKARTA 13361 JAKARTA 00002540 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On September 10, former president Megawati announced her intent to run for the office again in 2009. Though the fundamental dynamics that fueled her resounding defeat in 2004 remain unchanged, Mission contacts believe the current dearth of attractive presidential candidates makes her a top challenger by default. That said, President Yudhoyono remains popular and is considered the early favorite. End Summary. Jakarta extravaganza ==================== ¶2. (C) The Indonesian Democratic Party ) Struggle (PDI-P) held its annual congress September 8-10 as some 16,000 party faithful descended upon Jakarta for hours of speeches and entertainment. Interested observers converged on the event to see whether former president Megawati Soekarnoputri would "accept" her party's nomination for the presidency, which was formally offered to her during last year's annual meeting in Bali. ¶3. (C) Contacts were split on whether she would formally declare during the meeting, though Emir Moeis, a PDI-P parliamentarian, told POLOFF that it was "a foregone conclusion" that she would declare. According to other sources and media reports, however, Megawati remained undecided about whether to declare her candidacy right up until party executives urged her to run during a September 9 closed door meeting. Former first gentleman Taufik Kiemas told reporters that the district executives made such a compelling case that she felt obliged to take make it official. Taking the plunge ================= ¶4. (U) In her acceptance speech, the former president announced that "On the basis of the party's recommendation -- in the name of God, Most Gracious, Most Merciful -- in my capacity as chairwoman of PDI-P, I am ready to be nominated by PDI-P as a presidential candidate in 2009." Megawati and other party executives went on to vow to redouble their efforts to build up the party in advance of the 2009 presidential election and to avoid a repeat of the 2004 electoral debacle. What's the frequency, Megawati? ============================== ¶5. (C) In the view of contacts, the electoral fundamentals that led to Megawati's inglorious demise in 2004 remain the same, and most observers believe that no amount of PDI-P wishful thinking will change that dynamic unless SBY stumbles. (Note: In 2004, SBY received 61 percent of the vote and she received 39 percent.) The President still enjoys strong favorability ratings and a sizable advantage over Megawati and other potential competitors in preliminary polling. ¶6. (C) Moreover, party officials still privately express concerns that Megawati never fully internalized the reasons for her loss: as president from 2001-04, she was not dynamic; was not a good manager or communicator of ideas; and there was a feeling of drift in the country. As Amris Hassan, a former PDI-P legislator and current Indonesian Ambassador to New Zealand put it in a conversation with poloff, Megawati's lingering cult of personality within the party have sheltered her from political reality. The question remains whether Megawati has the dynamism to run a strong campaign and the ability to connect by tuning a message that is compelling to a broad swath of Indonesians. Don,t count her out =================== ¶7. (C) As outlined in Ref A, the field of potential challengers for 2009 remains wide open at this very early JAKARTA 00002540 002.2 OF 002 stage. Of the list of usual suspects generally considered to be contemplating another run in 2009, former president Megawati is an important presence. She enjoys the support, for example, of one of the two largest parties (the other is Golkar),has strong financial backing, comes from a formidable political family (her deceased father, Sukarno, is a national hero),and can count on a core of loyalists that will vote for her under any circumstances. HUME