ABU BAKAR BA'ASYIR FOR PRESIDENT? JI CO-FOUNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 002509 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, S/CT NSC FOR EPHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM KISL PINR ID SUBJECT: ABU BAKAR BA'ASYIR FOR PRESIDENT? JI CO-FOUNDER REPORTEDLY CONSIDERS A RUN REF: 06 JAKARTA 8929 JAKARTA 00002509 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Radical Muslim cleric and convicted terrorist conspirator Abu Bakar Ba'asyir reportedly plans to run for president in 2009. Rumors about a possible Ba'syir candidacy have circulated periodically since he was first released from prison in June 2006. Regardless of the veracity of the recent reports, Mission contacts agree that Ba'asyir would have an extremely difficult time qualifying for the race and has no shot of winning it. End Summary. A Prayer Cap in the Ring? ========================= ¶2. (U) On September 6, the German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur carried the latest story about Abu Bakar Ba'asyir's purported plans to run for president in 2009. In the Deutsche Presse article, Fauzan al-Anshori, a spokesperson for the Indonesian Mujahedin Council (MMI),an extremist grouping, announced that Ba'asyir planned to run in ¶2009. Al-Anshori was quoted as telling the media that Ba'asyir made the decision because "so many people have asked him to run for the presidency." Al-Anshori added that "I am optimistic Ba'asyir can run as an independent candidate in 2009, but even if he can't, he can run as a candidate of one of the political parties." ¶3. (C) Since the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) co-founder was first released from prison last year, reports about a possible Ba'asyir candidacy have surfaced every couple of months. (Note: Ba'asyir was released after serving 26 months in prison on a terrorist conviction. He currently spends a considerable portion of his time at his Al-Mukmin Pesantren in Ngruki, Central Java.) Ba'asyir has not confirmed the reports, but has not conclusively denied them either. Contacts have told us that they have heard rumors that he plans a run, but not seen anything definitive. Some offices of Muslim extremist organizations around Jakarta and elsewhere have put up large posters of Ba'asyir's visage complete with his prayer cap and gapped-tooth, somewhat maniacal grin, though the posters do not explictly state that he is running for president. Curb Your Enthusiasm ==================== ¶4. (C) According to contacts, even if Abu Bakar Ba'asyir did decide to run for president, he would face seemingly insurmountable hurdles just to qualify for the primary. He would need to enlist the support of a strong party or a coalition of smaller parties with a good chunk of seats in the Parliament in order to even participate in the election. That would be virtualy impossible for him to do. (Note: The electoral laws governing the presidential race are currently being re-written, and most analysts believe candidates will require the support of parties or coalitions of parties with 10-15 percent of the seats in the DPR.) ¶5. (C) Reflecting the conventional wisdom on Ba'asyir's possible bid, political analyst Otje Soedioto told Poloff that none of the mainstream parties would consider supporting Ba'asyir under any circumstances, and Ba'asyir would struggle mightily to identify even a fringe party willing to associate itself with him. As for Al-Anshori's contention that Ba'asyir could always run as an independent candidate, parliamentary contacts assert that there are no plans under consideration to allow independent candidates to contest national elections. Putting aside the enormity of the challenge to even qualify for the 2009 presidential race, there is little evidence to suggest that Ba'asyir has done anything to expand his base of support beyond an insignificant clutch of JI devotees and MMI followers. What's the Upshot? ================== JAKARTA 00002509 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Mission contacts from across the political spectrum greeted the alleged announcement with a collective shrug. The media frenzy reported in reftel that once surrounded Ba'asyir after his release from prison has all but evaporated, and this most recent announcement was not even covered by the Indonesian media save in very short articles. Despite the underwhelming reaction, Otje Soedioto told Poloff that the one possible upshot for the extremist cause to Ba'asyir's possible pursuit of the presidency would be that it could potentially get him back in the headlines. On the positive side, a Ba'asyir campaign might well be so ludicrous that it furthers damages the extremist cause. HUME