ISLAMIC PARTY CANDIDATE LOSES, BUT HIS PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 002166 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR ECHU E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID SUBJECT: ISLAMIC PARTY CANDIDATE LOSES, BUT HIS PARTY DECLARES VICTORY REF: A. JAKARTA 2156 ¶B. JAKARTA 2085 ¶C. JAKARTA 1972 JAKARTA 00002166 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Joseph L. Novak, Counselor for Political Affairs, reason s:1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) As reported, Vice Governor Fauzi Bowo defeated Islamic party candidate Adang Daradjatun on August 8 in Jakarta's first directly contested Governor's election. Despite the loss, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) seized on Adang's strong showing as evidence of the party's ascendance. Even as PKS officials spun the results, contacts dismissed its significance, noting that many of Adang's votes came from voters with no other alternative for change. Overall, few observers seem to believe the Jakarta result will have national implications. END SUMMARY. FAUZI BACKS INTO VICTORY -------------- ¶2. (C) As reported in Ref A, Vice Governor Fauzi Bowo won the Jakarta governor's race by approximately 56-44, according to the quick count. The official results will not be announced until August 16. If all holds up, Fauzi will be inaugurated in October. ¶3. (C) As outlined in Ref C, by all accounts, Fauzi ran a lackluster campaign. Perhaps emboldened by the strength of his 19 party coalition and his status as a virtual incumbent, Fauzi appeared to treat the election more like a coronation than a competitive contest. Where Fauzi came across as bookish and overly confident, Adang radiated charisma and vitality. Most importantly, Adang skillfully used the campaign period to leverage his greatest asset: the fact that he represented change. Fauzi eagerly trumpeted his bureaucratic experience, but many Jakarta residents reportedly associated that same experience with the waste, corruption and mismanagement of current Governor Sutiyoso's regime. ¶4. (C) Adang, as the only other candidate in the field, became the choice for change by default. As Golkar parliamentarian and Fauzi Bowo friend Yuddy Chrisnandi told us on election-day, many prospective voters with little to no ideological sympathy for the PKS agenda ultimately voted for Adang simply because there were no alternatives. Yuddy, like other contacts from across the party spectrum, sensed that Adang had surged in the final weeks and would make it close. Watching the first quick count results coming in on television with poloQ, Yuddy breathed a quick sigh of relief and commented that "Adang ran a real good campaign." PKS SPINS LOSS -------------- ¶5. (C) PKS legislator Zulkieflimansyah told us repeatedly in the weeks and months before the race that party officials were conflicted about Adang. Though the party had endorsed Adang's candidacy (reportedly for a handsome sum of money), most PKS leaders believed Jakarta was largely ungovernable, and Adang's inevitable failings as governor if he won would damage the party's reputation. Zulkieflimansyah admitted just before election-day that many within the party were openly rooting for Adang to lose in a close race. Zulkieflimansyah went so far as to tell us that anything over 40 percent would be considered a victory by the party. ¶6. (C) Shortly after the first quick count results were reported, Zulkieflimansyah sent us an sms with the party's instant spin. Begin translated text: "Fauzi Bowo won, but PKS also won. The real loser was the political coalition. None of the parties had the confidence to promote one of their own cadre as a candidate to lead Jakarta. The result JAKARTA 00002166 002.2 OF 002 will strengthen the spirit of the PKS political struggle and motivate us to work even harder to produce optimal political results." End Text. ¶7. (C) In comments to the press, PKS Chairman Tifatul Sembiring declared the results a victory, stating: "Can you imagine, despite the fact that we were surrounded by 20 political parties, including major ones, we managed to garner nearly 50 percent of the vote. So no, we did not lose." Other PKS luminaries took a similar line, and portrayed Adang's strong showing as evidence of the party's growing strength. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ELECTION -------------- ¶8. (C) Adang's performance was impressive, to be sure, but very few people seemed to believe his showing would have any significance outside of the local Jakarta context. Not only is PKS stronger in Jakarta than at the national level, making it difficult to extrapolate any larger meaning from the final voting tally, but most observers attributed the party's strong showing at least as much to dissatisfaction with Fauzi Bowo as to the strength in support for PKS. ¶9. (C) In the end, the election will likely be remembered more for the fact that it was the first ever directly contested gubernatorial race in the nation's capital. Many voters were unimpressed by either candidate and lamented the paucity of options, but the election unfolded without incident and the symbolism was undeniably powerful. What could better symbolize the steady consolidation of Indonesian democracy than the first direct local elections in Jakarta's 500 year history and the fact they proceeded almost without incident? HUME