IN QUICK COUNT, ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE BEATS

UNCLAS JAKARTA 002156 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP NSC FOR ECHU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PINR ID SUBJECT: IN QUICK COUNT, ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE BEATS ISLAMIC PARTY CHALLENGER IN JAKARTA REF: A. JAKARTA 2085 ¶B. JAKARTA 1972 ¶1. (U) According to a survey of 8000 voters by the well regarded Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI),Vice-Governor Fauzi Bowo defeated former deputy police chief Adang Daradjatun, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) candidate, 56 percent to 44 percent in Jakarta's August 8 gubernatorial race. LSI reported a margin of error of plus or minus one percent. ¶2. (U) Official results will be announced on August 18 and the winner inaugurated to replace Governor Sutiyoso in October. In the end, Fauzi's massive coalition of virtually every mainstream political party appeared to have held off a late surge by Adang and PKS, a well-organized Islamic party. Despite the loss, political pundits expected PKS to spin the respectable showing as a sign of the party's growth. ¶3. (U) The August 8 election unfolded peacefully and without any reports of disturbances. The Jakarta metropolitan police deployed 11,300 police across the city to maintain security during the election and by all accounts, these measures succeeded. According to the media, officials from both camps expressed satisfaction with the transparency and integrity of the polling practices. Embassy teams observed polling stations throughout the city and reported no disturbances or obvious signs of intimidation or coercion. ¶4. (U) As predicted, turnout for the election was low by Indonesian standards (Note: In the 2004 parliamentary election, 88 percent of eligible voters voted nationally.) The respected Kompas newspaper estimated that only 60 percent of registered Jakarta voters actually cast a ballot. As outlined in reftels, conventional wisdom long held that voter discontent with the limited options would translate into low turnout. HUME